Cooler first, then comes the rain! Here we go

courtesy Dave Masters - near Crested Butte, CO

The fall color is always spectacular in Colorado with the Aspen trees turning a vivid color of gold. We are seeing some fall color here in Kansas, but it gets better as we move into October. Feel free to share your photos with me and I'll get them on the blog. For anyone that has been asking "where is the fall weather"... well, it's finally here as the cold front clears the state. Most of us can expect temperatures in the 60s and 70s for highs, but it's going to get even cooler later in the week. 

As far as rainfall is concerned, we could see a nice swath of .50" amounts across western Kansas during the next 4 days. It's not a guarantee, but the setup seems to favor off and on rain over the west through Friday. 

Once we get to the end of the week, an approaching storm coming over the Rockies on Friday will likely push the rain showers across the entire state going into Saturday. If you have some fertilizer to throw on the yard, try to get it done before the weekend because we have a pretty good chance to see moisture. 

Highlights:

Tue. Night/Wed: Best chances for rain over western Kansas / Cooler temperatures statewide.

Thursday: More clouds than sun - highs 60s/70s

Friday: Rain likely across western Kansas

Saturday: Rain showers likely with highs in the 50s

Spectacular lunar eclipse & big changes underway this week

courtesy Kim Wong

courtesy Nila Burch - Lincolnville

courtesy Lindsay

If you missed the lunar eclipse last night, the next one for our area will be January 31, 2018. We will get to see most of it, but the moon will set before the entire eclipse is over. Some spectacular pictures arrived on Facebook, Twitter, and email last night. The weather cooperated and the sky was just as clear as ever. Thanks for sharing your photos. 

Now to the changing weather this week. A cold front will cross Kansas tonight (Monday night) and bring in much cooler air for the remainder of the week. Might not be a bad idea to look for some extra layers, because I think by Thursday and Friday, you'll want them. 

The wind in the upper atmosphere is coming from the northwest, and right along the transition zone of "warm" and "cooler" is where you will find a chance for scattered rain showers Tuesday/Wednesday. It's not likely to be heavy rain, but more chances for much needed moisture, especially in western Kansas. It's unlikely that we will see thunderstorms this week... just regular ol' rain. 

Highlights:

Tuesday: Highs won't get out of the 60s in the northwest where there will be some rain showers

Wednesday: Lots of clouds with occasional rain showers - highs upper 60s/low 70s

Thursday: Better chances for rain showers shifting into western Kansas, but cooler air sticks around statewide. 

Total lunar eclipse this weekend

We will be treated to a total lunar eclipse this weekend. Fortunately, you won't have to get up in the middle of the night to see it. Some of you will probably have to stay up later than you want, but it should be a pretty spectacular show considering the forecast is calling for mostly clear skies. 

Moon passes through the Earth's shadow

The partial eclipse begins at 8:07 p.m. Sunday (Sep. 27)

The total eclipse begins at 9:11 p.m.

Max eclipse at 9:47 p.m.

Total eclipse ends at 10:23 p.m.

Here is a map of the areas that will be able to see the eclipse. The areas shaded in pink (or peach color) will be able to see the entire eclipse from start to end. 

Winter forecasts are popping up... what should we believe?

Winter forecasts are showing up in all different places (Old Farmers' Almanac, private weather companies, social media) and with the extra hype in some national media outlets, what should we expect this winter?

First, let me just say that long range forecasting is extremely difficult. However, in recent years, we have started to get a better understanding of factors that influence a long range pattern. I'm not an expert at it, but I love looking over the data to try and figure out what lies ahead for a particular region. 

It's been out now for almost a month, but the Old Farmers' Almanac has released a prediction for the 2015-16 winter season. Take a look. What do you think?

What is the difference between a "snowy" winter and a "snow-filled" winter? I have no idea. I think you have to take their prediction with a grain of salt because there are so many factors that are relevant in a winter prediction that they aren't taking into consideration. 

And recently, I've come across this winter prediction from a company that compiles a lot of weather modeling information. This prediction makes more sense to me. It definitely takes into account more of the factors that influence the overall pattern. 

But I'm not completely sold on any one idea just yet. As I mentioned in a previous post, every El Nino is a little different and what is supposed to happen, doesn't always show up. So we need more time to analyze the data. Let's see what kind of fall we get here in Kansas because that can be an indicator of how rough the winter months will be. I've been reading a lot of interesting information from different meteorologists, but I think it's still very early to draw any conclusion on the winter prediction just yet.

Tropical moisture coming ... but fall weather on hold

courtesy Mike Kvackay - Kenosha Pass (Colorado)

Good Monday morning! The Autumnal Equinox is Wednesday morning just after 3 a.m. We will have roughly equal day and equal night as the sun will be directly overhead at the equator. As we approach the beginning of fall, we have some tropical moisture that will be headed this way. When you hear "tropical", there's a tendency to think we might get some good, soaking rains. However, this system will be weakening as it approaches and with the Gulf of Mexico moisture cut off from the Plains, we won't be seeing any tremendous amounts of rainfall. The best chances will reside over western and northern Kansas, but even in those areas, amounts will likely be under .50"

Forecast model for rainfall amounts through early Friday

The very cool, autumn air is going to be locked up in Canada for awhile. The jet stream has retreated to the north and that will allow for warm, late September temperatures to continue. The forecast heading into next weekend shows lots of 70s and 80s across the midsection of the US. There are some stronger signals that the weather pattern will turn active with better chances for rain and much cooler weather coming at the start of October. Details to come. 

Some fire relief in the west - El Nino should help this winter

The massive wildfires in the west continue to reach historic levels and while the battle goes on, firefighters should get some help from nature soon. If you follow some of the national weather, you already know how hot this summer has been across the west with temperatures topping 100 degrees for several days. Fire has burned an area twice the size of San Francisco and it's still going.

Satellite image from Sep. 13 showing the fires through the cloud layers

The pattern is about to shift and already, humidity values are going up. There should be an onshore flow (winds coming off the ocean) in the coming days which will help. Rain chances will also be going up, but unfortunately, it doesn't look like big rains (or widespread).

Our forecast model does show some rain developing over the northern areas of California by Wednesday. It doesn't look like rain will get much farther south than San Francisco. One forecast model (through Saturday morning) has rainfall amounts under .50".

El Nino is expected to influence the weather this winter across California. And while it will likely help ease the drought, it's probably not going to erase it completely. As we've experienced here in Kansas, easing or erasing drought takes an enormous amount of time to replenish sub-soil moisture and recharge lakes and streams. As bad as the conditions have been in the west, it will take more than just a few wet storms to fix the problem. We are likely to have a very strong El Nino moving into the winter months, which typically translates to a stormy pattern around Kansas too. We still don't know if that means more rain, ice, or snow just yet. 

Changes down the road & more western smoke coming our way!

Terry White - Nickerson

Halfway through the month of September and we are still getting some summer heat, keeping temperatures 10-15 degree above average. So how long will this last and when can we expect some rain? We are expecting a front to come in Thursday, and while that could bring some scattered showers/storms to central and eastern Kansas, widespread rains are likely still on hold. 

So for now, at least through Wednesday, windy and very warm conditions will continue across the Plains. Much of the area will see highs in the 80s and 90s, which doesn't set records, but it is above normal. 

Cooler weather settles across the area for the end of the week. By Friday, much of Kansas will have highs back in the 70s and 80s and the comfortable weather will last into Saturday. 

The front will be coming back north on Sunday, so the chances for storms will return statewide.

California smoke plumes could reach Kansas the next several days. Take a look at the upper level wind pattern, and once again, a western breeze will likely carry some of the smoke all the way to Kansas and beyond.

All over California, fires are burning out of control as strong winds continue to fan flames. As you probably know, the smoke does dissipate as it moves east over the Rockies, but it will likely lead to some very red sunsets the next several evenings (for as long as we keep this particular weather pattern in place)

Severe storms possible and big El Nino news coming today

Dawn Christensen - Salina

As we make the transition into fall weather, severe storms can be expected over central and eastern Kansas after 4 or 5 p.m. They will likely develop on a cold front that will push south and usher in MUCH cooler air for the end of the week (and the weekend)

A really nice weekend is coming up for Kansas with highs in the 70s and low humidity through Sunday.

We are expecting to get an update on El Nino today. This is significant for many reasons:
1) Could be the strongest one on record
2) It has a tendency to impact our winter weather
3) May help ease drought in southern California

There is a particular region in the Pacific that is monitored for the development of warmer/cooler than normal water temperatures. I highlighted it on this map, which clearly shows a lot of red gathering along the equator (indicating the warmer than normal water temperatures). The last very strong El Nino we had was back in 1997-98 and some are expecting this one to be as strong, if not stronger.

The biggest challenge for long range forecasting is that the impact from El Nino is not the same every time. We definitely know there are certain tendencies in how the weather pattern sets up, but we don't know the extent of what will be coming our way just yet.

Scientists will be releasing more detailed information on El Nino today, including a prediction on how strong it may get later this fall. Stay tuned.

Cooling down & even bigger changes coming

Miranda - Salina

Good Tuesday morning! Hope everyone had a wonderful Labor Day weekend and finally, the weather pattern is starting to change. The winds aloft are getting stronger as the first day of fall approaches. There is a pretty strong storm system that is crossing southern Canada and it's helping to push cooler air south across the central and northern Plains. Rainfall has been somewhat elusive in the month of September, but we are finally starting to see the chances return. 

The best chance for measurable rain and storms Tuesday afternoon and evening will be over central and eastern Kansas. Farther west, a few storms may develop but they won't likely produce much moisture. 

Wednesday and Thursday look mainly dry, but when you look at the map above, the storm that you see highlighted in Montana and northern Wyoming is forecast to slide southeast and bring some more rain to the area Thursday night and Friday. It's not likely to be a major rain maker, but we will likely end up getting some rain to fall during that time frame. 

Another fairly significant cool down is in the works for the end of the week and into the weekend. Highs will cool back into the 70s by Friday and Saturday. Autumn weather is finally on the maps and we will start feeling more like September.

Kim - north of Hillsboro

Storms Monday evening produced some major lightning and strong winds. We had a handful of 60-70 mph wind reports across central and south central Kansas. Some of the strongest winds rolled through Marion county.

Summer holds on for now, but fall weather is on the map

Courtesy Robert Brozek - north of Hutch - Wednesday evening

After having an early taste of autumn last month, we are getting blasted with late summer heat that seems to be relentless. Although we didn't have any record high temperatures Wednesday, it was a little unusual to see 100s cover the weather map over central and northern Kansas.

Within the first 10 days of September, it's not unheard of to still have some 100 degree days. But it's much harder to accomplish in the second half of the month because of the shorter days. Hill City has recorded 100 degree heat as late as October 5th. Wow! I'm sure most of us don't want to see that repeat this fall.

Look up to the north! Wednesday evening at 6 p.m., 90 degree heat had spread all the way into the Dakotas with 94 in Rapid City. So Kansas isn't alone in the summer weather. It covers much of the country. But look carefully at the temperatures in western Canada. You'll notice readings in the 40s and 50s. Eventually, that air will move south, but how long will it take to get here? It looks like by 6 p.m. Saturday, hot weather is still firmly in place across the midsection of the country (including Kansas) When we get to 6 p.m. Tuesday, some cooler air should be settling across the region, getting us back to normal for September (80s for highs)

Will rain wash out your holiday? Most likely not! 

Saturday: Dry statewide

Sunday A.M. - very slight rain chance central and east

Sunday Eve. - A few showers/storms across northern Kansas

Monday - Highest rain chance along and east of I-135

Tuesday - Best chance for showers/storms across southwest, central, and eastern Kansas

Millie and I hope you have a terrific Labor Day weekend. If you get bored, we are on the air Sunday and Monday evenings.

More heat - changes in the Labor Day forecast

The weather pattern this week is stuck in summer gear and won't be changing much through Saturday. The winds aloft are very light over Kansas and the hot, humid weather is stuck in place. Eventually, the storm that is tracking through the Pacific Northwest will move east, but that's not going to happen until Saturday. 

Until it starts to move, the best chance for isolated showers/storms will be focused over far western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Any rain that does develop will be extremely isolated. 

There is a change to the Labor Day forecast. The front that we've been forecasting to move in on Monday is going to arrive a little slower and it could become stationary Monday evening. It still looks like much of Kansas will have a chance to see some rain and storms, but the temperatures look to stay quite warm. I would expect highs to be around 90, and may not cool off much until mid to late next week.