Winter forecasts are showing up in all different places (Old Farmers' Almanac, private weather companies, social media) and with the extra hype in some national media outlets, what should we expect this winter?
First, let me just say that long range forecasting is extremely difficult. However, in recent years, we have started to get a better understanding of factors that influence a long range pattern. I'm not an expert at it, but I love looking over the data to try and figure out what lies ahead for a particular region.
What is the difference between a "snowy" winter and a "snow-filled" winter? I have no idea. I think you have to take their prediction with a grain of salt because there are so many factors that are relevant in a winter prediction that they aren't taking into consideration.
And recently, I've come across this winter prediction from a company that compiles a lot of weather modeling information. This prediction makes more sense to me. It definitely takes into account more of the factors that influence the overall pattern.
But I'm not completely sold on any one idea just yet. As I mentioned in a previous post, every El Nino is a little different and what is supposed to happen, doesn't always show up. So we need more time to analyze the data. Let's see what kind of fall we get here in Kansas because that can be an indicator of how rough the winter months will be. I've been reading a lot of interesting information from different meteorologists, but I think it's still very early to draw any conclusion on the winter prediction just yet.
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