Record watch today - colder air & a storm soon

Hope everyone had a nice weekend. The weather has been rather uneventful now for over a week and we still don't see any big storms rolling into the Plains for awhile. However, we are still on the lookout for some rather big temperature swings over the next few days.

RECORD WATCH TODAY:
With afternoon highs climbing into the upper 60s-near 70, we will be on record watch. Most of the records around Kansas are close to 70, so let's see how things end up. Some of the old records date back into the 1800s.

MIDWEEK CHANGE:
There's a fairly strong cold front that will send us back to winter temperatures by the middle of the week. The front will come through Tuesday night, so Wednesday looks much chillier around the area. It will still be dry.

LATE WEEK STORM:
For the first time in nearly 2 weeks, there's a chance we could see SOME moisture at the end of the week. A low pressure system will move in from the western US and bring clouds by Friday, followed by some chances for light rain (mixed with a little snow) by Saturday. This is not likely to be a big storm, and any moisture we get from it should be light. In fact, several of the computer models push most of the measurable moisture off to our east.

Quiet stretch for now - when does the next storm arrive?

We made it to Thursday and heading into the weekend, the weather looks rather uneventful. It's looking like a typical stretch of January weather with sunshine and highs in the 40s. The wind isn't very pleasant, especially with temperatures down in the teens and 20s early in the day.

I don't expect any rain or snow chances around here any time soon. We will likely go another 8 or 9 days before we see the next system approaching Kansas. The timing and details are unknown this far out, but forecast models are hinting at something developing and moving our way toward the first weekend in February. Stay tuned.

Couple of other notes to point out. The Arctic Oscillation is going back negative, which is a strong indicator of much colder air slipping back south and into the US. What we are experiencing now is likely the "mild" before we get hit again with bitter cold. You can see one of the forecast products we look at has a BIG chunk of cold air slipping south in the first 7-8 days of February. It could turn out to be a pretty chilly month. 

It's been exciting to see our first pictures coming from the new weather satellite that was launched into space last November. There's still some work to be done to get it all setup, but the end result will be higher quality satellite images, more lightning data, and faster update times. In time, this will mean better forecast data for us to look at, especially when dealing with severe thunderstorms. Many of the satellite images available to us today update every 15-20 minutes. Once the new satellite becomes fully operational, we will be getting some images every 30 seconds. Here are some of the images that came out earlier this week. Notice the big cloud mass over the US? That was the ice storm that hit almost 2 weeks ago. Click on the images to make them larger. Have a great day!

Pattern change coming - talk of Arctic air - deadly tornadoes already

Thanks for stopping by the blog and sharing a few minutes. We have one storm/cold front coming across Kansas today (Tuesday) and after that, our weather really starts to quiet down. This storm is going to produce some big snows in Nebraska and South Dakota. Along with the wind, near blizzard like conditions will show up north of I-80, so this could be a wintry mess.

It's been very active lately, but still, where's the snow?
Normal snowfall by this point in the season is as follows:

• Wichita = 8.3"
• Salina = 9.8"
• Russell = 10.9"
• Dodge City = 9.9"
• Goodland = 17.1"

Many areas don't even have half of those amounts. 

Where are we headed from here? The pattern is changing this week, so the chances for snow are basically slim-none for the remainder of the month. The kind of pattern we thought would repeat many times this winter will be with us for the next 7-9 days. We won't likely see much moisture with this kind of setup, and it could be after the first week of February before there's much chance for rain or snow.

We are certain that Arctic air will be back, but it's still a few weeks out yet. That should put it back in Kansas after the first of February. So expect us to start talking about it as we get closer to that time.

Our hearts go out to those impacted by recent severe weather events in the Southeast. It's not unusual for them to have severe storms in January. After all, the tornado season actually begins in that part of the country and then spreads back to the west and north as we get closer to spring. Already, there have been 2 tornado outbreaks this year with over 20 fatalities (already higher than last year). Let's hope it's not an indication of what's to come.  

Albany, GA - courtesy Kerri Copello

Hattiesburg, MS - courtesy Ryan Moore

Inauguration Day stats - Big temp changes coming next week

President-elect Trump will be inaugurated today and as we all know, it is an outdoor event and subject to some crazy winter weather. There is a great deal of weather history from that date, but I'm only sharing what I think you'll find interesting. The weather in D.C. today looks wet with rain showers moving through close to parade time. 

*The normal high for the date is 43, which is rather tolerable for wintertime, but how often is the weather actually normal.

*Surprisingly, there is just a 1 in 20 chance of snow for the day (remember this is based on previous inaugurations)

*The most dramatic and tragic was back in 1841 when President William Harrison was sworn into office on a cold, windy day. He caught pneumonia and died just one month later.

*In 1909, the weather was so bad it forced the ceremony to be held indoors. A storm dropped 10 inches of snow on the Capital City and it came with wind too. Just after the President delivered his speech, the snow finally ended.

*The warmest January inauguration occurred in 1981 with President Reagan taking office. The temperatures was a balmy 55 degrees at noon. Just 4 years later for his 2nd inauguration, another record was set. It was the coldest inauguration ever for the Capital City with a noon temperature of 7 degrees. Amazing how Mother Nature works.

*Most snow on inauguration day was in 1909 with 9.8" of snow when President Taft was sworn into office. 

KANSAS WEATHER:

A very active weather pattern will continue for much of the Plains throughout the next 5-7 days. The next system to watch arrives Saturday evening, with a chance for rain showers over southern Kansas. It will be warm enough that we won't have to worry about icy or snowy conditions. 

Beyond the weekend forecast, we anticipate another storm coming into our area next Tuesday/Wednesday. The track of this system has been trending farther north, which lowers the possibility of us seeing snow in Kansas. Some snow is possible by Tuesday evening for the northwest, but it's unlikely to get much farther south than that. We will, however, see much colder air filtering in by the middle of the week. Highs will drop back to the 30s.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Very active weather & where did the 7 day forecasts go?

Thanks for spending a few minutes reading the blog. There's still so many without power after last weekends storm. Hopefully it will be restored today or tomorrow. I think we can all be glad it's not bitterly cold as the Arctic air has pulled back to the north and won't return until the end of the month.

One housekeeping note here - at 6 p.m. - our regional 7 day forecasts that come up right after our main weathercasts are in a different spot now. They will air in the commercial break right AFTER the main weathercast. I know, this probably isn't what some of you want to hear, but I actually think it might be a better spot. Sometimes we have to drop the regional 7 days because of too many news stories, so this way, they should almost always make it on air. If you have questions, please let me know.

We have some very active weather coming up for the next week to 10 days. None of the storms coming into the Plains will be ice storms, but the system coming next week (around Tuesday) could be a winter storm. We will start talking more about it later this week.

The first system is one that is coming up from the deep South. It's going to keep us cloudy, produce some sprinkles or drizzle, but significant cold air is lacking. So it's a very safe bet that any precipitation we get will be just rain - no ice or snow.

Another system coming this weekend could bring some rain showers to southern Kansas Saturday night or early Sunday. But I'm forecasting lows in the mid 30s, so that shouldn't cause any problems. Even though it might seem cold enough for snow, once again, we have too much warm air above us in the atmosphere that it will melt anything on the way down.

Here's an early look at the storm for next week - the chance for snow will be back. More details coming tomorrow.

Have a great Wednesday.

Latest winter storm winding down

Good Monday morning. The latest winter storm is winding up over Kansas and by the end of the day, will be out of our state. It produced a significant amount of rain, ice, and finally, some snow coming down in western Kansas. Was is it as bad as we thought? There are several reports of power outages and tree damage, especially around Dodge City and surrounding areas. And Wichita received the ice we had forecast, but just a few degrees made a big difference in keeping roads mostly wet and not icy. Some will say we dodged a bullet, but several areas weren't as lucky.

The storm itself is passing right over south central Kansas. It's tracking northeast

Radar estimates from the weekend storm

The moisture is a welcome sight for this time of the year. The radar estimates show over 2 inches across south central and southwest Kansas. It's very unusual to have that kind of moisture in January, but it will make a big difference once the growing season begins. Because of the freezing temperatures, some of you may not have had a gauge out to measure the rain.

From east Wichita

Ed O'Neal - Dodge City

Ed O'Neal - Dodge City

Brooks Barber - Hays

Eric Stites - from Linn county

Once this storm departs, we will see a pretty good warming trend kicking in. There's no Arctic air around us, so milder days await. And although the weather pattern will stay very active through the next week, I don't see any big winter storms coming our way for awhile.

We will be expecting a return for bitter cold air toward the end of the month though. And heading into February, it looks pretty cold too. That will be a focus in the coming days, but in the meantime, we will enjoy some milder days with a chance to de-ice for many areas.

Friday - ICE STORM UPDATE ** Few changes

Good Friday morning. Headline to start the day is the storm is a little slower coming in from the southwest. This has not changed the forecast much, other than to push the start of the heavy icing back just a few hours. 

Where is the storm now? - It's still over southern California as I write this at 8 a.m. This is the main driver behind the freezing rain. It comes across Kansas Sunday/Monday time frame. IT WILL BE ICY BEFORE THEN!

Latest ice accumulation from our Future Track model looks like this:

Any freezing precipitation we get between now and Saturday morning will be LIGHT! Not the kind that brings down power lines or trees.

Saturday afternoon - heaviest freezing rain will be focused over southern Kansas

Sunday morning - VERY ICY over much of Kansas - power outages possible (and likely in a few spots)

Sunday afternoon - changing to rain around Wichita/South central Kansas. Western Kansas may still be getting icy weather even Sunday afternoon

Late Sunday night/early Monday - Rain for central and eastern Kansas with SNOW coming into the west. Still looks like northwest Kansas could get 5-8 inches of snow (on top of a thin glaze of ice)

Please be careful out there this weekend. We will have a full staff through the weekend providing coverage of the winter storm. This may not be the worst ice storm to hit the area, but it will be a memorable event after it's over.

Latest winter storm update

I'll keep today's blog update short because not too much as changed in the last 24 hours. We still expect an ice storm to hit this weekend. What might be most helpful is to take a look at snapshots of our latest Future Track data to try and pin down when your area will see ice.

The ice begins along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike Friday:

Friday night and into early Saturday, most of the ice and slick roads will be in south central and southeast Kansas:

Heavier ice begins to set in Saturday afternoon and into the night:

Heaviest ice will come Saturday night and Sunday. HOWEVER... temperatures will gradually warm in central and eastern Kansas, so we may not add to the ice accumulation. BUT... western Kansas will likely continue getting freezing rain and sleet Sunday.

Ice accumulation through 3 a.m. Sunday - could be enough to cause tree damage and power outages. THIS IS ONLY THROUGH 3 A.M. - MORE ICE WILL STILL BE COMING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

The final piece to this storm will come Monday morning with heavy snow across western Kansas. Latest forecast models indicate some 5-8 inches of accumulating snow in northwest Kansas. We will be covering that as the weekend continues.

How do we get so much ice and not snow? Temperatures at 5,000 feet in the air will be in the 40s, so it's WAY too warm for any snow to fall through much of the weekend. With temperatures near the ground around freezing, that's when we run into problems. The rain begins to stick to everything.

I don't believe this storm will be quite as bad as 2005. One of the biggest reasons - wind. We don't expect to see gusty winds with this weekend storm like we did in 2005. Hopefully that will help out AND temperatures may not be as cold as they were in 2005.

Ice storm still expected

As we get closer to the weekend storm, we are learning more about its potential with every new bit of model data coming in. We are still forecasting a storm that is very much in its infancy and still over the Pacific Ocean. One of the things that will help as soon as this storm moves over land is we can sample it with weather balloons. That will help fine tune our forecasts even more. In Kansas, weather balloons are launched at 6 a.m. and 6 p.m. both at Dodge City and Topeka. This is what they look like.

Because this is a fairly large storm, it will likely be slower to move through the area. But here's where we are with respect to confidence on this storm:

The morning and afternoon drive on Friday should be okay. The storm is coming in a little slower, but we still expect the icy weather to come up from the south. Our latest Future Track model shows the ice beginning in south central and southeast Kansas. It will take awhile to spread north, but should do so heading into Saturday evening.

I'm expecting temperatures to warm up above freezing over central and eastern Kansas by Sunday, so there will be a changeover to rain. However, western Kansas may continue to deal with icy roads.

Will there be snow? Yes - I believe there will be snow, but that will be very limited to far western Kansas late Sunday night & early Monday. It could be several inches too, and we will focus on this part of the storm in the coming days.


DID YOU KNOW - through the process of freezing, heat is actually given off? That's right, it's a process that we study in meteorology, and it may actually help to erode some of the colder temperatures that we have around this weekend. The air above us is still key in figuring out what kind of precipitation falls. Because there is so much warm air over Kansas this weekend, we expect either rain, freezing, or sleet. It's nowhere close enough to have snow through Sunday evening.

We will be back on Facebook Live today at 10 a.m. and again tonight at 8 p.m. This is a good chance to ask questions about the storm. We will do our best to help you plan ahead. While this may not be a historic ice storm for the area, it will certainly cause some major headaches for Kansans this weekend.