Wrapping up May - June preview

How often do you see northwest Kansas get more rain than everybody else? It's a rare occurrence for sure, but this month of May was quite wet (again) for some areas.

Take a look at the following maps. One shows how much rain fell during the month, while the other shows how far above or below most areas ended up. And generally speaking, most of the rainfall amounts from around Kansas were near normal for the month. The HUGE rains in April pushed us way ahead, and May just kept us safely above average.

Observed rainfall - May

Difference from normal

It still amazes me that Dodge City is about 4 inches away from reaching the typical average annual rain, and we aren't even halfway through the year yet. Here are the latest May rainfall stats from around the area.

Salina Rainfall Stats:

• May = 3.71" / -0.69"
• Year = 13.08" / +1.44"

 In case you missed it in my blog last week, I'm expecting the first half of June to have several days with near to below normal temperatures. That would likely mean more days with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. There's good chance we will be sticking with the stormy weather pattern too. One piece of data shows the central Plains could be getting some decent rains in the first couple weeks of the month. I know this isn't what wheat farmers need or want right now, but it's something to watch for in the coming days.

As we approach the second half of the month, hotter weather and drier conditions should return. A large high pressure system may help to shut the faucet off. Time will tell for sure.

Severe chances this holiday weekend

I hope everyone has a safe and happy Memorial Day weekend. The next two days (Friday and Saturday) do have chances for storms and some severe weather as well. So let's look a little closer at the timing.

Friday:
Most of the day will be storm free and should be a nice. But into the evening hours, we do expect severe storms to start in eastern Colorado and then move into western Kansas. How widespread the storms will be is still a bit in question. But as the storms move east into the overnight, the biggest concern will be some strong wind gusts. Storms should weaken with time through the night. But if you are camping, please be prepared for some scattered storms.

Saturday:
I think there will be some leftover rain around at the beginning of the day, and then during the afternoon, the best chances for storms will be off to the east of the Flint Hills. Some showers may clip southwest Kansas Saturday night, but those won't be severe.

Sunday & Monday: DRY!!!!!!! Enjoy!

Late week storms - early look at June

We are coasting into an extended weekend and it's the unofficial kick-off to summer. Summer isn't my favorite season, but I do love the warm nights and longer days. And I have to say, after the blistering heat of 2011 and 2012 (when we had 30 and 40 100° days), I get nervous when summer draws near. Many of us were very frustrated with the drought and the ongoing heat waves.

Early June Prediction:
An early look at June shows we should be in for cooler than normal weather, especially for the first half of the month. That would mean mostly highs in the 70s and low 80s, not 100 degree temperatures. That's not to say we couldn't have a 100° day, but it doesn't look that likely.

What about the precipitation? There are signs pointing toward active/wet weather for the beginning of the month, but as we get in closer to the middle of June we may be hitting a bit of a dry spell. A high pressure ridge may setup in the middle of the Plains closer to mid June.

Possible Weather Pattern June 17

Memorial Day weekend storm chances:
The next batch of storms will arrive later Thursday night. This will impact a small area of NW Kansas. Another chance for storms is coming Friday night, mainly to western Kansas, but those storms may drift east into the night. So if you plan to camp Friday night, some rain is possible. Severe weather isn't expected to be widespread.

Saturday:
Leftover showers are possible, but late in the day, rain chances will end from west to east.

Sunday/Monday:  Dry!

Different setups this week

Hope everyone had a nice weekend and enjoyed not having damaging thunderstorms in our state. Last week was rough on all of us and especially those who had storm damage.

Scattered showers and a FEW storms will be possible throughout Kansas today (Monday), but the setup is very different than last week. There is a large storm system spinning around the Great Lakes and that is sending much cooler air from Canada down into the Plains. Cooler weather = lower chances for severe storms.

Later in the week:

There will be a shift later this week back to some stormy weather, and it might influence the start of your Memorial Day weekend. I expect Thursday night and again Friday night we will have thunderstorms pushing through the area. Given this kind of setup, strong wind gusts of over 60 mph would appear to be the main threat. We will be taking a closer look at it throughout the week to help you get a better of idea of what to expect heading into the holiday weekend. Seems like every Memorial Day or 4th of July weekend has to have SOME thunderstorms to make it complete.

Severe threat backing down, finally

After a rough week of weather, things are beginning to calm down just a bit. There were 9 reports of tornadoes on Thursday in Kansas alone.

We still have a chance for some spotty severe storms today (Friday), but we are talking about isolated hail and some wind, not a bunch of tornadoes. AND flooding... that chance is still quite high as so many areas are soaked.

Timing:
Storms will likely start developing during the middle of the day. I think anytime after 12 today, we will start to see the next round of rain and storms firing up. Most of the heavier rains are going to move to the north/northeast.

Best chances for hail will be southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. 

The weekend weather looks nice and finally calms down. There's no severe weather threat in Kansas this weekend, and even though we have a few storm chances early next week, it's not looking like a bunch of severe weather.

Severe storms expected today - update

There is a good chance for severe storms in Kansas today. There is no reason to panic, but just have a plan and pay attention to the weather. Most of us have been through stormy days before and May in Kansas is notorious for having rough days. Just stick with us throughout the afternoon and evening and we'll keep an eye on what pops up.

Here's the outlook:

Setup: A couple of features we are watching carefully today include a dry line (separation between humid air and dry air) and a warm front that will be lifting north across Kansas. We expect these features will play a role in where storms begin to develop. The dry line will stretch from around Dodge City down into western Oklahoma. The warm front will be moving into central Kansas late in the afternoon.

This graphic shows the separation between humid and dry air... quite notable down across western Oklahoma

If we have a bunch of storms close together on the radar, the chance of tornadoes could be reduced. This is something that could work to our advantage if it turns out that way.

Timing:
Storms will likely start firing up by 4 p.m., especially for northern and western Oklahoma. Everything will move to the north or northeast, and I would expect that no later than 5 p.m., we will have storms in southern Kansas.

5 p.m. Thursday

This is what the radar might look like at 9 p.m. tonight

As the severe weather diminishes after midnight, the concern for heavier rainfall will roll on, especially for central and eastern Kansas.

Just a note for Friday - the chance for severe storms doesn't go away tomorrow. We have another round of some severe weather that is expected for central and eastern Kansas Friday afternoon. It looks like the severe storms will be gone by late Friday night.

Next chance for severe storms - Thursday

A rough Tuesday evening with hail and some isolated tornadoes. We never had anything that stayed on the ground for more than just a few minutes, but it doesn't take much to get some damage and the hardest hit areas were around Barton county. Assessment crews will be out today (Wednesday) and we might learn of an Enhanced Fujita scale number by the end of the day. Here's a look at the scale:

EF0 - 65-85 mph

EF1 - 86-110

EF2 - 111-135

EF3 - 136-165

EF4 - 166-200

EF5 - >200

We are going to get a break from the severe weather for today. But we are right back into the possibility come Thursday. Here's the setup:

Highest chances for severe weather will be across central, south central and southwest Kansas. Storms will move north/northeast after developing.

Strong winds will move out over Kansas Thursday afternoon and into the evening. At the same time, a front will be positioned over south central and eastern Kansas, which is most likely where storms will begin to form once again. When you have a front involved, you tend to have more shifting of the winds, so the tornado threat looks a little more elevated Thursday evening.

The front will be slow to move, so we anticipate some heavy rainfall throughout the area heading into Thursday night.

Timing is the question here. Most of this will come during the early evening hours and not in the middle of the afternoon.

Stick with us as we continue through this busy week of stormy weather. It still looks to calm down by Saturday as we dry out.

Severe weather timing today - Weather Alert Day

Thanks for stopping by the blog and checking out the latest on severe weather chances for Today (Tuesday).

There will be several watches and warnings for parts of Kansas during the afternoon and evening hours as we expect storms to develop after 2 p.m. and cover much of central and eastern Kansas.

BIGGEST THREAT TODAY: Large Hail / Strong wind gusts over 65 mph

An isolated tornado is also possible, but that threat will exist from about 2:30 - 6 p.m. After 6 p.m., storms will likely grow into a big batch of rain and the tornado threat should greatly be diminished.

Here's the timing:

3 P.M.

5:30 P.M.

10 P.M.

 Wednesday afternoon - the weather calms down briefly

Thursday - another chance for severe weather will arrive in the Plains. The timing will likely be later in the evening (most likely after 7 p.m.) and this will impact southwest, central, and eastern Kansas. We will update the severe weather chances later this week, but it continues to look very active and very wet for places that don't need anymore rain right now.

Back to stormy weather this week

Welcome to Monday and the start of another active week of weather for the Plains. The sunshine and breeze over the weekend helped to dry things out just a little bit, but now we head back to a stormy setup that will likely bring severe weather and some drenching rains.

Today (Monday):
A few storms will develop in far western Kansas through the evening hours. These storms will have a hard time surviving much past sunset, but anything that develops should move east/northeast. One or two may briefly produce some larger hail, but overall, chances for severe storms are low.

Tuesday:
Chances for severe weather will be increasing. Storms will develop east of a Colby to Garden City line and move east through the evening. Biggest threats will be large hail (up to golf ball size) and some damaging winds. We don't expect a bunch of tornadoes, but the chance can't be taken off the table given the time of year and the setup. The highest chances of tornadoes will be in western Kansas as the storms start developing.

Wednesday - No severe storms

Thursday/Friday: 
Another round of active weather is likely setting up for the end of the week. Severe weather is going to be possible a little farther east through central and eastern Kansas and down into Oklahoma and Texas.

Celebrating mom & stormy setup next week

It's a weekend to celebrate all of the moms out there and I have to thank my mom for helping me become the kind of person I am today. She would probably tell you I learned everything I need to know about weather from her, but ... well, I don't know about that. 

Here's how my mom forecasts the weather. She counts 100 calendar days from a morning of fog, and says it will rain right around that time. Does it work? Give it a try sometime and see. I think there is some truth to it, but I don't have time to keep up with it like she does. But she will let me know when we are getting close to the 100 days so I can put rain in the forecast.

I hope everyone enjoys this nice weekend of weather. The wind and temperatures will start picking up through the next few days, but no sign of any storms on the horizon through Sunday. 

Keep an eye on your Facebook news feed. You will probably see lots of different weather predictions calling for some very nasty weather, tornadoes, big hail, etc. The fact of the matter is that next week will have a couple different days where the weather could turn severe for parts of the state. 

There's so much we don't know yet about how the setup will come together, but it's safe to say that looking at the computer models right now, central and eastern Kansas will have the best chances for severe storms Tuesday evening, and again Thursday and Friday. And remember, in weather, it's a lot like baking in the kitchen. If the ingredients aren't just right or don't come together at just the right time, the forecast will change. So enjoy the weekend and then check back at the start of next week to see how everything is coming together. 

Rainfall amounts - How we can do better

Some big rainfall yesterday evening in parts of Kansas. A Flash Flood Emergency was issued for areas along I-70 near Grinnell because of slow moving storms producing VERY heavy rains. Just look at the radar estimates. There were reports of logs floating down streets in high water, storm drains that couldn't keep up, and even one water rescue happened late into the night.

Rainfall amounts from the past 24 hours ending at 7 a.m.
Grinnell - 4.11"
Goodland - 1.92"
Wichita (Eisenhower) - 1.46"
Jabara Airport - 1.33"
Hays - 1.27"
Great Bend - 1.15"
Hutch - 0.77"
Winfield - 0.75"
Dodge City - 0.72'
Russell - 0.63"
Salina - 0.57"
Newton - 0.49"
Smith Center - 0.39"
Medicine Lodge - 0.34"
Liberal - 0.26"
Pratt - 0.16"
Garden City - 0.06"

When it comes to warning you, we are always looking for ways that we can do better. It's a total team effort with the help of the National Weather Service, broadcast meteorologists, Emergency Managers, storm chasers and spotters, and law enforcement. Wednesday afternoon, a tornado warning was issued for Sherman county (including Goodland) for a little funnel hanging from the cloud. You can see in the picture (courtesy of the Sherman county sheriff's office), it's incredibly small and it was not in contact with the ground. There were several eyes under the storm, watching its every development. So what do you think? Should a tornado warning be issued? The problem is we sound MANY bells and whistles when a tornado warning is issued. Lots of different reactions happen for many different people. Schools will start putting kids in shelter, hospitals go into storm mode, sirens go off, and some people panic. When the threat is so isolated like that, would you rather us wait or go full on with tornado mode (even when the setup isn't very favorable for it to get stronger)? It's something we continue to talk about and try to understand better what makes most sense. Will we ever have it totally figured out? Maybe not, but just so you know, we are always working to make our efforts better in how we warn you of approaching storm danger.

Next week will have several more chances for storms and some severe weather too. We will take a closer look at what days have the best chances tomorrow.

Severe weather update - Wednesday

Chances for severe weather return to Kansas today - Wednesday and we have issued a Weather Alert Day. What does that mean? We expect storms to have a higher chance of producing some large hail and damaging wind, but this is not going to be a huge outbreak of severe storms. The month of May is notorious for having significant severe weather, but this isn't one of those setups.

Although most of the state is covered by the slight risk for severe storms, not everyone in the shaded area will be hit with hail and winds. So be prepared for some watches and warnings during the early evening hours. But as we head later into the night (after 11 p.m.), the chances for large hail will be diminishing.

Here's the timing:

Late morning/Early afternoon

A batch of showers coming through around midday are very unlikely to be anything more than just some rain and maybe some thunder. 

Early evening - storms developing all over Kansas (storms will move east-northeast)

Stronger storms should begin to develop after 6 p.m. into the evening hours. Most of the large hail and severe weather will be on an isolated basis, so not everyone will see rough weather. 

Heading into the night, some spotty severe weather is possible, but the concern will also turn toward some heavy downpours, which may create flooding concerns. 

Beyond today - severe weather is out of here and the weather begins to settle down into the weekend. 

I am a little concerned that we are moving back into an active setup for next week though. Details to come, but several days next week will have chances for severe storms. Just that time of year.