Holiday weekend - long range into July

We made it to Friday and I hope everyone has a safe holiday weekend. Hope you get a little downtime and a chance to enjoy some fireworks. It would be a big deal if we had a forecast of dry weather all the way through the weekend, but ... that's not probably going to happen.

Here's what we think will happen:
Today (Friday):
A sprinkle possible here or there - most storms are going to be in northern Oklahoma. The weather doesn't look threatening in Kansas. Enjoy some 80 degree weather!

Saturday:
Looking good! Humidity will be down, the winds will be down, and temperatures will likely end up in the mid and upper 80s.

Into Sunday: 
Chances for storms will be coming back into the area (mainly evening and nighttime). I don't think they will be all that widespread, but it could put a damper on some lake and camping activities. A few storms could produce hail and wind.

Monday:
Once again, scattered storms are possible, especially over central and eastern Kansas. There will be some hail and wind risks.

4th of July: This is the big day and if all goes as planned, we are going to see the storm chance push east of Kansas. The latest setup would suggest storms east of the Flint Hills, but I will caution you, it's a close call.

July Forecast:

Big weather pattern change is expected Wednesday, July 5th. The faucet will get turned off as a large high pressure system takes over in the Plains and Rockies. I think the first half of July could be dry for most of the area. I don't think we are looking at a major heat wave, but it's July and it will still be rather warm. 

There may not be much of a pattern change until mid to late July when the high pressure system sets up farther west, allowing for some cooler weather and rain chances to return. I've seen some longer range models showing a cooler second half to July... but lets watch and see if that trend continues on future data sets. 

Weather Alert Day - severe winds expected

Be on the lookout for severe storms heading into the evening hours tonight. Storms are expected to develop in northern Kansas and then slide southeast. I think our biggest concern will be strong winds that might gust to 60-70 mph, but it's unclear just how widespread it will be.

Some of the latest data that has come in this morning shows storms rapidly developing after 7 or 8 p.m., mainly east of a Hays to Dodge City line. These storms should move east and southeast, possibly producing the strongest winds that we are forecasting. And some of you are still trying to clean up after Mondays severe weather.

Shortly after midnight, I think almost all of the storms should be gone from our area as cooler temperatures settle in.

Friday afternoon: A few storms may develop near Wichita and southeast Kansas, but most of them will likely be non-severe storms.

Coming up tomorrow, we will take another look at the holiday weekend forecast and what lies beyond as we move into July.

Severe chance lingers - holiday forecast update

Halfway through a busy week with some storms scattered over the Plains. This is a very active pattern right now and the chances for severe weather continue through Thursday night. Then we should catch a break.

Today:
The main focus will be in northeast Kansas through the evening hours, but overnight, a few more storms may develop and move along I-70. Some hail and wind look possible, but I don't expect that many severe storms tonight.

Thursday (Weather Alert):
We went ahead with a Weather Alert Day  for Thursday evening because I expect our best chance for organized severe storms to move across central and eastern Kansas through the evening and into the night. My biggest concern is more damaging wind gusts of 60 mph, especially east of a line from Russell to Pratt.

Once the storms move through, we are headed for some slightly cooler weather for Friday and Saturday!!

4th of July Forecast Update:
Earlier this week, I hinted that we might have some storms around for the 4th. That forecast is still holding up as we see a front nearby, which may help to develop some storms. HOWEVER... latest models are showing the front just off to our southeast, so for planning purposes, I'd expect most of the rain to stretch from Oklahoma to Arkansas, on into Missouri. We will keep an eye on this, but it's looking like we might get through the day without too many storms to ruin firework displays.

Stormy week - difficult forecast

This is just the beginning of a stormy week for the Plains. Monday evening, we had a couple of tornado warnings and a few reports of storm damage. We will likely have more watches and warnings to get through before we reach the 4th of July.

Storm near Leoti - courtesy U of M chasers

What amazes me about summer storms are the different cloud features and storm structure that you don't always get to see with spring storms. Mainly because spring storms can produce so much rain it hides the interesting features. Just look at this storm as it rolled into Scott and Wichita counties around 7 p.m. The lack of rainfall allows us to see more of the structure.

And look at the amazing shelf cloud near Hillsboro. Shelf clouds are generally associated with very strong winds.

We know there will be more storms coming this week. The forecast is challenging, but we are fairly certain that storms tonight (Tuesday night) will mostly stay in Nebraska. They will move east with a hail and wind threat.

The chance for severe weather is back Wednesday evening, once again with the main focus being to the north. Our Future Track is developing storms along the cold front by 6/7 p.m. Hail and wind is the main threat. 

Thursday -

Severe weather concerns will be at their highest Thursday evening and into the night. Strong winds and some hail will be possible with storms that fire up in western and northern Kansas first, then move to the southeast into the night. We may issue a Weather Alert Day for this event, but I'm waiting to see how the new data looks as it comes in this morning.

Summer storms return - 4th of July forecast

I'm back in the weather center this week after spending last week in KC at the AMS (American Meteorological Society) Broadcast Conference. It's an opportunity to learn more about the latest advances in technology as well as hear from colleagues on how they cover weather events in their TV markets. Meteorologists come from all over the US and Canada.

We have just wrapped up an unbelievable weekend of weather in Kansas. Highs in the 70s and 80s feels so out-of-place for late June, but it may not be the last of it. Even though we warm it up today, cooler weather may return later this week.

Storm chances today:
There will be a few isolated storms over central and northern Kansas later today. Timing will be after 2/3 p.m. and any storms should fade by 8 p.m. tonight. Severe chances remain low.

Storm chances tomorrow:
Another weather feature will be coming through Tuesday night, and chances for storms will setup across the northern 1/2 of Kansas. Timing here will be late into the night, and a few storms could be severe.

More storms are on the way Thursday, which we will focus on in the blog tomorrow.

Early 4th prediction:

Major heat in the South - big changes for KS

Thanks for stopping by the blog and welcome to summer - well, almost. It begins at 11:24 p.m. local time tonight (Tuesday night) and as many of you know, these are our longest days. We have just under 15 hours of daylight.

A major, record setting heat wave is gripping the Southwest right now and it's not likely to end any time soon. We all know it gets hot in Phoenix this time of year, but this latest wave is making history. It was already above 100 degrees yesterday by 10 a.m. and reached 118° by the end of the day! I'm guessing even if you like hot weather, that's just too much. But I know some absolutely love it.

We are not likely to see a big heat wave anytime soon. In fact, it's going to be quite the opposite around here. Much cooler weather will likely return at the end of the week. For some of you, the cooler weather may get here as early as Friday. And I think our best chance for storms will arrive with the cold front coming Friday evening.

It's starting to get active in the tropics. We could be looking at a landfall of Cindy by midweek (likely with tropical storm force winds of 40-50 mph), and then Bret is back to the southeast, but it's likely to weaken later in the week and not be much of a problem.

Another chance for storms Friday

Good Friday morning and hopefully you don't have too much cleanup to do in the wake of last nights storms. Just incredible to see so many storm reports across central and southern Kansas. Storms fired up right on schedule and produced tennis ball size hail near Hays. That was the largest hail report. And the strongest wind report was measured 84 mph winds in Colwich.

Today!
Scattered storms may develop in the same areas. The overall threat doesn't look as impressive as it did yesterday, but some storms will produce some hail and strong wind gusts over 60 mph. It looks like storms will fire up in the same areas (around Hays/Russell) and then move to the southeast. For Salina and Great Bend, storms will arrive around 5/6 p.m., and closer to 7/8 p.m. for Hutch & Wichita areas.

Still looks like a few more storms are possible Saturday evening as our cold front blows on through. But WOW! Sundays forecast for Father's Day looks awesome. Highs in the 80s with low humidity. Bring it on!

More storms coming & what is a heat burst

There are three more rounds of storms coming before heat relief arrives in Kansas. Are you ready? We can't be tired of hot weather yet because summer hasn't even officially started. But we've already had 4 days this year with highs above 100 in parts of the state.

Here's what's going on today:
There's a very weak front in the area which will help ignite storms in central Kansas after about 5 p.m. Storms will move east/southeast into the evening, and the storms should remain scattered - not widespread. Very large hail is going to be one of our biggest threats.

The focus for storms Friday:
Mainly over northeast and eastern Kansas. This batch of storms will form in southern Nebraska and then roll to the southeast. These storms could be big wind producers.

And finally, round 3 with storms could come Saturday night with our cold front:
This will likely push through around sunset and into the night. A few severe storms are possible.

But by Father's Day, we should be back into the 80s with lower humidity. Wow!
Just look at what's coming up.

Tuesday night, a heat burst was reported around Russell around 6:30 in the evening. Are you familiar with one of these? When storms collapse, the descending air rapidly heats up and dries out. When the air hits the ground, it is usually quite warm/hot, and the air becomes very dry. You may also notice very strong winds, which can sometimes lead to damage. Tuesday evening, we saw the winds gust up to about 60 mph and the humidity dropped. Just take a look at this line graph showing the change in temperature, dew point, and humidity. Notice how as one goes up, the others nose dive.

To water or to wait... that's the question

When you look at a 7 day forecast or hear one on the radio, it can look and sound like we are going to get rain maybe every day. It also makes it hard to figure out if you should water some plants or kick on the sprinklers. If you're in that spot... I'd suggest going ahead with the watering. 

Look at the setup today (Tuesday):

Any storm that pops up will likely fade within a few hours of sunset. And they will be few and far between.

Then tomorrow (Wednesday): 

The focus will be shifting south and east of the Kansas Turnpike, with some hail and gusty winds possible. 

Thursday setup:

This is likely to be our best chance for rain this week, even though, I think the storms will once again be fairly scattered. 

Are we really in need of rain? Well, that might depend on who you ask. So far in the month of June (and it's nearly half over), rainfall amounts look like this:

Dodge City: 2.27"

Goodland: 1.82"

Wichita: 0.81"

Salina: 0.75"

Over the last two months, most areas had anywhere from 9-12 inches of rain. So while the faucet has been slowed some recently, it hasn't been turned off completely.

Hello summer heat - summer storm chances this week

Welcome to Monday and what is shaping up to be another hot week in the Plains. Combines are rolling and the wheat harvest is underway, so the heat/wind combo isn't all bad news for farmers in our area.

There is a STRONG storm system churning across the west today and headed for the northern Plains tomorrow (Tuesday). There will be all kinds of severe storms today AND tomorrow from northern Nebraska through the Dakotas. Summertime severe storms usually happen northern of Kansas and that's the setup through midweek.

Meanwhile, around Kansas, we are going to see a very isolated storm chance Tuesday night (you could probably count on one hand how many storms we will have)

There's a slightly better chance for storms Wednesday evening for southeast Kansas.

And then we have to keep an eye on Thursday evening/night as we could see more storms forming for central and eastern Kansas. Chances for rain increase slightly as we continue through the week, but it's not going to be the widespread rains that some of us saw back in May.

While a few severe storms may develop, most of our chances of hail and wind are fairly low this week. And coming up tomorrow, we will look for possible cool downs coming our way.

First 100 degree days looming - will it last?

We are just 14 days away from the official start to summer and our longest days of the year. Kansas gets just under 15 hours of daylight around the summer solstice. It's barely dark long enough to get your 8 hours of sleep squeezed in.

I'm expecting our first 100 degree temperatures to arrive before we get to the summer solstice. You can see our weather pattern in the image below. Just ahead of the giant "L" in the West, temperatures are going to soar and be nearly 15° above average. 

Last year, this was the 100 degree count:

• Wichita = 10 days
• Dodge City = 5
• Goodland = 6
• Salina = 18

The heat and wind will most definitely ripen the wheat in a hurry, so combines will be rolling soon. This is harvest weather!

Should we be bracing for a long stretch of hot weather?

The short answer is no. We already see temperatures cooling back to near normal next week, which would mean more days with highs of about 85-90. A cold front will be around Tuesday, which may spark some storms for southeast Kansas.

Longer range models indicate that temperatures may fall back below normal heading into our 3rd full week of June. If in fact that happens, we would likely end up with more 70s and low 80s. So just as harvest gets ready to go into full swing, some cooler weather should be sweeping through the Plains. 

Next round of storms - heat building up

Good Monday morning! After a weekend with spotty storms and some pockets of heavy downpours, we are setup for some drier weather today around the area. It's going to be very muggy though, so when we say "dry", we are only referring to the fact that there won't be precipitation falling. The air certainly won't be dry.

The weather pattern this week will allow us to enjoy more calm winds and summer-like temperatures.

Next chance for storms:
Scattered storms will develop over eastern Colorado and western Kansas into Tuesday evening. Once they do, they are going to move east, but how far east is somewhat uncertain. Right now, highest chances will be west of a line from Russell to Pratt. Some of us could wake up to leftover showers Wednesday morning, but it should dry up fairly quickly.

We could be looking at our first big surge of heat by the weekend. Early signs point toward widespread 90s.

Quiet start to June - is severe weather season over?

The month of June is off to a relatively quiet start, but before we put May behind us, I wanted to show you how much of the US saw cooler than normal weather. Just look how much blue covers the map below. We can contribute the cool weather to all of the rain we are getting this spring. And the most recent drought monitor (released Thursday) clearly shows record low drought around the nation.

Much of the country had cooler than normal May weather

Drought monitor - released Thursday, June 1

Our weather pattern is showing signs of summer. How do we know? Just look where the main jet stream winds are now. All the way up along the US/Canadian border, so without the strong winds aloft around Kansas, our chances for severe storms are somewhat diminished.

I don't think severe weather season is completely over yet, but we are passed the peak. In another week, a storm system will be racing across the northern Plains, which may help to get some organized storms going once again.

And on a side note here - it's the time of the year where you just might see a 7 day forecast that has rain on it nearly EVERY day. When you see that, just know it's a complicated forecast. But rather than put a rain icon on each day of the 7 day, we will try to pick out the best chances and leave the others off. Summertime storms can pop up just about anywhere, which makes forecasting them quite a challenge. But we try to avoid having a 7 day forecast that has rain on it every day.