Outlook for October

It must be the state fair that makes September zoom by, but I'm amazed that we are already heading into October this weekend. So as I try to do at the beginning of each month, let's look ahead to what kind of weather we could be coming our way.

Everything I've looked recently is pointing toward a warm month. It might not be record warmth, but there will likely be several days with highs above normal. And normal highs will slip back to the 60s by the end of the month.

First Week of October:

Looks like we will have wind and some warm weather at the beginning of the week. But a transition to much cooler weather will likely happen as we hit the end of the week and our first weekend of October. And I think we will get some rain coming our way too, which could take place in the middle of the week. Be looking for that in our 7 day soon.

Heading toward mid October:
Longer range predictions would suggest maybe another warm spell setting up around the middle of the month. Keep in mind, with normal highs in the lower 70s, a "warm" spell could mean temperatures near 80, which would still be pretty nice for a lot of people.

Later in October:
There's a chance we will see temperatures going back into a bit of a cool spell after the middle of the month. It doesn't look dramatic, but if we end up with below normal highs late in the month, that usually means highs in the 50s.

And, we've had snow before in October too. It's a rare thing to see, but not unheard of. I don't think we will get snow in Kansas this month. Everything I've looked at suggests it just won't be that chilly. 

Rain not over yet - big pattern change next week

Rain chances aren't over for Kansas just yet. The storm system that produced the big rains earlier this week has another piece to it, and it will be impacting our weather Thursday/Friday.

The timing is about perfect. Given a few days, most of the moisture has had a chance to soak into the ground, and now we see more showers pushing into western Kansas Thursday and Friday. Look what our Future Track is showing for Thursday evening:

And on Friday, the chances will push a bit farther east. A few areas in central Kansas may get some showers to start the weekend. It won't amount to very much with totals likely .25" or less.

Next Week - Pattern Changes:

We will go back to a high pressure system for our first week of October. That means the faucet will be turned off and the heat gets turned up. I don't think we will make 90° next week, but we will definitely have a lot of 80s. And this pattern might be around for 10-12 days, so October is looking warm and dry to start.

Just an example of some of the temperatures we might see during the middle of next week. Low to mid 80s will put us almost 10° above average.

Rainfall amounts - Looking ahead to the next chance

Here are some 24 hour rainfall amounts from the latest slow moving storm system to impact Kansas. This is just what we needed, even though some areas could probably use more. 

Medicine Lodge - 4.18"

Ellsworth - 2.60"

Pratt - 2.14"

Wichita - 1.75"

Great Bend - 1.65"

Hutch - 1.58"

Concordia - 1.49"

Winfield - 1.46"

Salina - 1.30"

Hays - 1.18"

Kingman - 0.98"
Smith Center - 0.82"

Dodge City - 0.73"

Garden City - 0.64"

Liberal - 0.43"

This latest storm system may produce some more rain showers in western Kansas ONLY Thursday/Friday.

And the next big feature to watch is a big storm system that will organize over the Pacific Northwest this weekend. It should push a cold front into Kansas Sunday night, which will bring the chance for rain and storms back to northern Kansas. Updates to come!

Rainfall amounts - what's still to come?

Here are some rainfall amounts from the beginning of the storm:

Goodland - 3.15"
Garden City - 2.82"
Smith Center - 1.60"
Hill City - 1.07"
Elkhart - 0.71"
Dodge City - 0.68"
Liberal - 0.65"
Hays - 0.64"
Salina - 0.33"

There's more rain coming, so PLEASE be patient. I know areas farther east will get some rain today and again tomorrow. Here's another look at what kind of amounts we may get between now and Wednesday.

And our temperatures - finally much cooler and feeling like fall. In fact, we will stay below normal throughout the week. This goes for many areas across the central Plains.

We also have another storm system pushing our way next weekend, which should bring more rain chances back to the area. Details to come this week!

How much rain, where & when?

We've made it to the weekend and there's a lot of anticipation on this upcoming storm to deliver some badly needed rain. But as we've seen before, big storms like the one we are about to see in the Plains move SLOWLY. So be patient as we wait for rain to move from west to east.  Good news is that it's unlikely we will have very many (if any) severe storms. Even though we are in "second season" for severe weather, I don't expect there to be much in the way of hail or damaging winds.

Friday night - Sunday afternoon:
Most rain will fall in the west (basically west of Hays to Dodge City)

Sunday night:
We should start to the see the leading edge of rain getting into central Kansas, but not as far east as Salina, Hutch, or Wichita.

Monday:
Rain is possible (and even likely in many areas) for areas along and west of I-135.

Monday Night-Tuesday:
Rain ends across the west, but continues for central and eastern Kansas.

By the time we get to Wednesday morning, our forecast models suggest everyone in Kansas will have had some rain. Heaviest amounts are expected in the west, but even central and eastern Kansas could get close to an inch.

And - much cooler weather takes over next week too. There will be many days with 60s and 70s for highs!! Fall weather is finally on the way.

This will make so many happy!

After putting up with the wind and heat (and more dry weather yesterday), how about some good news on our next chances for rain? 

The huge storm & wind maker that has been parked over the western US for the last 3 days will finally begin moving east Friday. Because this is a slow moving storm, there are some important things to remember:

1. Rain chances will extend over several days and some of the rain is expected to be heavy
2. We must be patient with the rain. It will take a few days before the it moves from western Kansas to the eastern half of the state.

Here's an early look at timing & how much we could get out of this storm. It's just the kind of setup we need to cover a large area AND get more than just a trace of moisture.

Storms will still be fairly scattered Friday night as the front is still just off to our northwest.

Rain will pick up in intensity and cover more areas Saturday night and early Sunday. I don't expect we will have severe weather with this weekend setup, but a few strong storms are possible.

Heavier rains will be on the move into central Kansas Sunday evening/night. 

The front will slowly reach south central and eastern Kansas by Monday. This will increase chances for showers and I think you're going to see these chances linger into Tuesday too. Rainfall will likely not be as heavy farther east in Kansas, but nearly everyone in our state should get something over the next week.

I'm sharing with you an updated look at some of the model data we are looking at in the storm center. The numbers on these maps do not guarantee that you'll get that much rain but it offers up an idea of where the heaviest rains will be. And this increases the confidence that this will be a statewide event.  

What to watch for this week

So our weekend of rain chances has come and gone, and I know some of you are thrilled that it rained again. But most of us are not too happy with the amounts. That's the problem with "scattered" rain and storms, especially when you are as dry as we are here in Kansas.

We will be thankful for the little bit of moisture we had and start looking ahead to what's next for Kansas. It's actually going to be an active week, given the weather pattern that's setting up across the US. There will be more snow falling in the mountains across western Wyoming into Idaho and Montana. A very large storm is about to form across the western US, and it will take all week before it finally moves. How does that impact Kansas?

It will be windy AND hot on Tuesday. Here come the 90s again!

We will have a cold front in the area Wednesday, but not many (if any) storms are expected with it.

Later this week:

Forecast models show the western storm slowly moving toward Kansas. Rain chances should begin to increase in western Kansas late in the week. The front should also be slow to move, which could mean several days in a row with storm chances for Kansas. Two different models (over the next 8 days) give much of the area measurable rain, but in order for this to happen, we need the front to stall over Kansas next weekend.

European model

American model (GFS)

So as disappointed as you might be with the lack of rain this weekend, maybe we can offset that with the hope of more moisture arriving within the next week.

Storm chances - what's coming next week

Heading into the weekend and after making it almost all the way through the Kansas State Fair without rain, it finally happened this morning. But even more rain is on the way this weekend. Here's what our Future Track is showing:

Later Saturday night, more storms will develop in south central Kansas, and we should begin to see some rain developing in western Kansas too.

The front will stall over Kansas into Sunday, so we expect much of the state will have chances for scattered storms. And it will be much cooler too on Sunday. We will likely have mainly 70s and some lower 80s to round out the weekend. 

Next Week - Another big storm to watch:

No, we aren't getting snow from it, but this HUGE storm will create more wind for Kansas and heat too! It should help to drive a cold front into the Plains by Wednesday, but it's not likely to produce much rainfall the way things are setting up now. There is a chance we could be in for a stormy setup later next week. We will continue to watch the trends in the forecast models for sure. 

Snowflakes already? And rain returns soon

I had a request to talk about the snow that is expected to fall in the northern Rockies over the next 24-48 hours. This is a big deal because it's going to tremendously help the wildfire situation across Idaho and western Montana. Also, this area of the US has been in terrible drought for most of the year. This is very good news as the healthy storm is finally pushing east. The same system will help to drive a cold front into Kansas this weekend.

Look at the winter storm watches and warnings. The snow will fall at or above 6,000 feet.

Kansas Rain Chances:

We are still on track to have a cold front arrive Saturday and it will bring scattered storm chances back to our state. Here's what our Future Track shows for the evening hours. I think storms could start as early as 7 p.m., but really anytime after that, we expect to see some rain. These will be scattered - not widespread. 

Saturday - 8 p.m. Future Track

And a tropical connection could bring even more rain to our state next Tuesday. We are watching the Pacific as what could become tropical storm Norma may form in the next 24 hours. Even if it doesn't turn into a storm, that moisture will move north. Forecast models are hinting that leftover moisture could lead to showers and storms. Best chances would be over central and eastern Kansas. Stay tuned.

Updated rain chances - will we get it?

So much anticipation with our chances for rain coming up this weekend AND next week. There are so many areas of the state that are begging for a good 2 or 3 inch rain.

Before the rain falls: It will get a bit hotter and the humidity will be going up by Friday. Summer isn't quite over yet, and our temperatures the next few afternoons will remind us of that. Most of the state will top 90.

Rain chance this weekend:
We still expect a cold front to get into Kansas Saturday, but storms may not show up on radar until later Saturday night. I would expect the chances will hold off until after 7 p.m., and heading into the night, most storms will continue to be scattered. That means, not everyone will get rain! But this is by far our best chance in over 2 weeks.

Tropical system headed to Kansas?
The last 3 days, our forecast models continue to show a tropical system coming from the Pacific, up through Mexico, and possibly getting to Kansas next Tuesday. Most tropical systems, if they are going to get this far north and impact our area, have to come from the Pacific. I don't know if the system will have a name yet, but it's going to get stronger before it makes landfall. Just take a look at our Future Track, which continues to show it moving north toward the US this weekend. If it can hold together long enough, it could very reach Kansas with increasing rain chances coming next week.

When's it finally going to rain?

I've had two days at the Kansas State Fair and probably the second most asked question "when is it going to rain again?" As you might have guess, the most popular question is about Millie, but I think she's enjoying her afternoons in the air conditioning and sleeping.

So let's take a look at what's coming up for our rain chances in the next few weeks. First of all, Irma doesn't help us out at all. It would be VERY unlikely for an Atlantic storm to get this far west, but Irma tries. The remnants get as far west as Memphis, TN and then it's history. So if you look at the rain forecast between now and Friday, Kansas isn't in the right spot. Most moisture falls east and well north of our state.

This weekend (Sep. 16-17):
There will be a cold front in our state and it should spark off some scattered storms. Definitely NOT a case for everyone to get rain, but chances are finally returning after 2 weeks of nothing. So here's a look at what kind of amounts we might see through the weekend and into early next week. It's not a lot, but some of you could get lucky and get .50" or better.

Rainfall for the next two weeks:

I've been telling some of you at the fair that I think the second half of September looks more promising. We've seen several instances this year where the 2nd half of the month is more fruitful when it comes to rain. That is likely to be the case here in September. Take a look at the possible rainfall between now and September 27. Several areas of the state could be looking at 1-2" of moisture. 

Will Irma impact KS & searching for our next rain

We made it to Friday and while the nation watches Irma come ashore this weekend (hopefully weaker than forecast) we will continue to search for our next rain chances. This has been a very long and frustrating stretch without moisture, but we've had so many instances lately where the weather pattern is stuck in neutral. 

Irma track:

The updated track has Irma coming through Florida and eventually (early next week) fading over the eastern third of the US. Irma never gets close enough to Kansas to directly impact our weather, but it does continue to create a block in the pattern so that other storms can't make it to our area. We are sandwiched between a storm on the west coast and Irma getting into the southeast. 

Next rain chances:

Until we can get things moving again in the pattern, we won't see much chance for moisture in the Plains. The earliest we might see storms develop over this area would be next weekend. At that time, we expect active weather to push in from the western US, which should set off some storms in Kansas either Saturday or Sunday. Timing is a little bit in question, and there's some concern that not everyone will get rain, but it's our only chance in the next week.

The second half of September looks much more active for Kansas than what we've had so far. We will be looking into this next week. That SHOULD mean better rain chances coming our way.

Irma's size compared to Kansas

The strongest hurricane recorded in the Atlantic basin continues it's push toward the United States. It's amazing how long it's been able to maintain its category 5 strength, but the water is just so warm and there's nothing in the atmosphere to weaken it yet. 

How big is Irma?

Hurricane force winds (74 mph or stronger) have a diameter of about 100 miles. Tropical storm force winds are nearly 400 miles in diameter. Kansas measures about 400 miles from west to east, so Irma is comparable in size to our state. Of course the impacts will be much more widespread because dangerous flooding rains and surf extend MUCH farther out from the center of the storm.

What are the spaghetti models?

You may have been hearing reference to this either in our local news or from the national media. As their name suggests, each model laid out on a map look like pieces of spaghetti. But what you want to look for is how closely clustered together they are. And there are  When several of the spaghetti models line up with each other, confidence grows on where the storm will go. It certainly doesn't guarantee it.

How does Irma turn so sharply north?

There's going to be a low pressure system setting up in the deep South in the next few days, which will actually be strong enough to start pulling Irma north. Depending on when that turn happens will dictate how bad Florida gets hit. Right now, we think it may happen just southeast of Miami. The Florida Keys will likely get spared the worst of the storm.

Our weather pattern around Kansas is stuck in neutral right now, but coming up Friday morning, we will look at what will likely be an active and much cooler 2nd half of September. Please check back.