Record dry November - Big time cold on the way

We are wrapping up a record dry November for most of the state. It's a frustrating pattern that we're in and there's no sign the dry weather will ease anytime soon. Any forecast calling for rain or snow the next 8-10 days is nothing more than just a tease. I'll explain in just one second.

Dry November records:

Wichita had just enough rain Tuesday night to stay out of the running for a record.

A December outlook is coming Friday morning, but what you need to know for the next couple of weeks is that we have a strong potential of very cold weather here in the Plains. Look at the reservoir of cold air building in Canada. I know they are used to temperatures like this in the Northwest Territories, but when that shows up in the central Plains, it's a very big deal and usually record setting. 

That Arctic air is going to plunge south next week. But considering how little snow cover there is between here and Canada, that air will warm before it reaches us. 

Why no rain/snow next week? The upper level winds coming in from the north do not support chances for moisture. Any moisture tends to get pushed south or east of Kansas, and this setup is not good for our very dry state. 

Have a great Thursday. I'll post a December outlook Friday morning. Thanks for sharing a few minutes with me here on the blog.

Some rain & winter is back next week

For the first time in a long time, there's a chance we could get measurable rain in Kansas. The problem is that it's a very small area. There's no chance it will turn to snow or ice overnight.

Here's our latest Future Track model showing where the best chances for rain showers will be:

The heaviest amounts should fall southeast of the Turnpike:

Bitter cold on the way:
We are headed for much colder weather next week. The pattern is finally going to flip around and show signs of winter. Yesterday here in the blog, we talked about a storm coming through the Plains around Monday/Tuesday. That storm is still in the works, but it may not produce much (if any) precipitation in Kansas. What it will do is drag in the wind and COLD air. Several days next week could have highs in the 30s and 40s. We could be going into a long stretch of below normal highs. Details to come!

Record highs & a storm on the horizon to watch

Hope you had a nice Thanksgiving and that getting back to work this week isn't too tough. We in the home stretch of a very dry November and the lack of rain goes back much further for many areas of the state. We will go into detail on those stats coming up tonight on some of our newscasts.

Record highs today:
Afternoon highs are still running 20-30° above normal, so we will make history just like we did on Black Friday.

Change Tuesday - rain chance:
A cold front could bring a small area of rain showers to south central and southeast Kansas for Tuesday evening-night. It's unlikely to amount to much more than .25", but anything would be welcome at this point.

Next big storm to watch:
Models are coming into agreement that a fairly big storm could be in the works and moving toward Kansas in our first full week of December. Out ahead of the storm, we are bound to have more wind and warmth. The forecast models we look at will change a bunch between now and December 5/6, but just know that is our next time frame that we are closely watching for some active weather throughout the area. This storm will likely send MUCH colder air back to Kansas.

Winter Weather Forecast 2017-18

Many of you have been asking my thoughts on the upcoming winter season, and while I've been reluctant to say too much early on, I think we have a better idea now.

If you missed the story that aired Monday night, here are some of the highlights:

Wichita - A big storm dumped 8.7" of snow on the city back on February 4, 2014. The city had another 4.2 on February 10th. Since then, our snow events have been pretty small.

Dodge City - The last big storm for Dodge (other than the ice storm from last year) came on December 13, 2015. The official snow amount came in just under 8".

Driving forces in this years setup:
Arctic Oscillation (AO): For the last nearly two months, it has been consistently positive. Even though in recent days it has dropped into negative territory, I still believe most of this winter we will have a positive AO. When it's positive, Arctic cold tends to get trapped well north of Kansas.

This is what the AO has been doing lately

When it goes negative, there is a much stronger likelihood for Arctic cold to dive south and blanket much of the US. That should happen at least a few times during the winter.

La Nina - This is probably the one you've heard the most about, whether its been in your Facebook feed or just on the news. Most winter forecasts that have been released so far are only looking at this feature. But there are other things going on besides just La Nina.
La Nina is the colder than normal water in the Pacific (near the Equator). There's no clear answer as to what La Nina means for our winter in Kansas, but we've seen some very cold winters when they do setup. The last La Nina winters we had were back in 2010-11 and 2011-12.

Winter 2010-11: 17.3" of snow fell in Wichita

Winter 2011-12: 3" of snow fell

So one of the weather patterns I think we will often this winter should look like this:

This is a setup that will deliver several waves of very cold air to the East and the upper Midwest. This is also going to be a very dry pattern for Kansas.

Another pattern will look like this:

Stormy weather should move into the west, come across the Rockies, and give Kansas a chance for some precipitation. Will it be rain or snow? That's what we will figure out as we get closer, but I would expect a few of these storms could be decent snow producers for parts of Kansas.

Snow Forecast:

Normal snowfall in western Kansas is roughly 25-35 inches. This winter, I expect below normal snow and even the rainfall will likely be somewhat scarce. Farther east, average snowfall drops off with Wichita averaging about 14.7" and Salina closer to 15-16". I look for below normal snows in central and eastern Kansas too, with better chances our moisture will be in the liquid form.

Thanksgiving week looks...

Uneventful!  And that is great news considering how busy the week will be as we travel around and get ready for the Thanksgiving holiday. The only possible travel headaches might be in the Pacific Northwest where the weather will continue to very active. Several waves of some rain or snow could impact the area.

Here's a snapshot of the Future Track leading up to the holiday:

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Friday

Don't forget, our Winter Forecast will be on the air Monday night at 10 p.m. We are also planning a Facebook Live session to take some of your questions. Should be fun, even though some of you aren't going to like what I have to say about the upcoming winter. 

Big pattern shift - early look to Thanksgiving travel

Goodbye to the Seattle type of weather and welcome back sunshine. We are about to see some of the warmest weather we've had since before Halloween. What is going on?

The Pacific Northwest is about to get blasted with another big storm with heavy winds, rain, and snow. Wind gusts over 55-60 mph look likely. 

Our wind will be increasing because of that big storm in the Pacific Northwest. It will be a south wind, which is why we are forecasting such warm weather for the end of this week. There will be a lot of 70s by Friday afternoon. Some records could be tied or broken. 

Great news for travelers next week:

The weather looks good for most of the country. These snapshots of the weather are for Tuesday-early Wednesday. Some light snow or flurries coming through the Rockies, with a batch of rain showers passing across the South. The eastern third of the country looks quite chilly, but nothing that's unusual.

Tuesday-Wednesday

Tuesday-Wednesday

Active weather, but where's the rain?

Welcome to Monday and we are just one week away from our winter weather forecast reveal. And with just a week and a half to go before Thanksgiving, some of you are starting to wonder about the travel weather. 

We continue to be in a fairly busy pattern. It's almost like there is a freeway over Kansas for the cold fronts to follow. There will be several coming through in the next 8-10 days, but most of them will not be productive (in terms of rain or snow)

Monday:

Skies remain cloudy east with some sun in the west

Tuesday: Still cloudy for most. Next front arrives heading into the night. Rain chances will be along and east of the Flint Hills. 

Wednesday: We should have a return to sunshine statewide.

Friday: Another front is coming in, which will cool us off a bit heading into the weekend - but once again, NO RAIN!

The pattern looks very slow to change in the next 10-15 days, so our chances for moisture continue to be on hold. We will look into when this might change soon, but for now, most of the region continues to look very dry. 

La Nina is back - what exactly is it?

I see La Nina all over the news today and if you are wondering what it is, take a look. There is an area, in the Pacific along the equator, that is monitored carefully. When it's warmer than normal, it's El Nino and when it's cooler, it's La Nina.

Water temperatures across the oceans have a big impact on weather patterns that we see across the US, but they aren't the only things going on. The impact from one La Nina might be different from the next, so you can't make a long term prediction strictly on that phenomenon alone. Typical La Nina patterns favor dry weather in the south and colder weather in the north.

The last strong La Ninas we had were back in 2010-11 and in 2011-12.

We have our winter forecast coming up November 20 at 10 p.m., and we will share with you our thoughts on what may happen in the season ahead.

In the meantime, a quick check of what's going to happen this weekend:
Saturday- cloudy with drizzle. Our Future Track is very widespread on the clouds.

Sunday - more sun & 50s on the way

There will be more active weather coming next week. I see cloudy weather coming back for some on Monday & another front arriving Tuesday. Hope you have a great weekend and thanks for spending a few minutes with us.

Our pattern is about to change - big time

We are coming off of a rather lengthy stretch of chilly temperatures in Kansas. In fact, some of us have had below normal temperatures for the last week. But it's about to change for our second full week of November.

Friday starts the warm up:
South winds kick in, which will help push the warmer air back to start the weekend.

Next week:
Looks dry and much warmer than anything we've had so far this month. Last week when I put out the forecast for November, I indicated we wouldn't likely see any big storms coming through our area and that continues to be the case.

We are expecting to see the storm track (or jet stream) push back north, resulting in near to above normal temperatures. But this kind of setup leaves us dry too. There will be a series of cold fronts coming in, but it's unlikely they will produce moisture.

Moisture last 30 days:
It's getting dry again in many areas, especially across central and western Kansas. As the fall harvest winds down, many farmers would be okay with the moisture starting back up again. South central and eastern Kansas may not need the rain as much as other places, but we certainly have been on a dry stretch lately.

Just a reminder, our winter forecast comes out Monday, November 20th.

Some snow this week - then a pattern shift

Good Monday everyone. As we alerted you to last week, temperatures are going to be quite chilly this week. It's not Arctic cold, but we will be below normal on highs until about Friday at the earliest.

Chance for snow headed for Kansas:
First of all, this is a WEAK storm. It's going to increase clouds & help produce some snow flurries, but outside of that, it's a dud.

Future Track: 11 a.m. TUESDAY

Future Track: 8 p.m. TUESDAY

Future Track: 2 a.m. WEDNESDAY

Late this week, the pattern will shift and allow for milder weather to push back across the Plains. Another system will be coming in from the west, but it's a Pacific storm without much moisture. So we don't expect it to bring a big cold snap, and we certainly don't look for it to be a big rain maker.

Looking later into November:
We are still working on the winter forecast and will come out the week of Thanksgiving. But if we look at the Arctic Oscillation and where it's headed in the next 10-15 days, it drops into the negative. That usually gives us an early heads up for a much colder trend late in the month. You might remember in the previous blog entry I mentioned a cold snap coming around Thanksgiving. At this point, that still very much looks to be on track. Stay tuned.

November outlook - what can you expect?

Welcome to November! These last two months of the year seem to go fast with the holidays upon us.

Here are the November normal stats:

First half of November:

I don't see any signs of big storms coming into the Plains for the first part of this month. There will be a significant number of cold fronts & big temperature swings are likely, but at this time, no sign of any storms that we need to be concerned about. The jet stream (or sometimes referred to as "the pattern") is going to be split into two parts, which keeps most of the really cold weather locked north.

Early next week: We could have a system coming through the Plains in about a week, but if the jet stream remains split, this would decrease the chance of snow. A few showers may come through the Plains around Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

The 2nd weekend of November: Still no sign of any major systems that would be coming through the Plains, but we will have to watch the Gulf of Alaska as a storm begins to develop. That could change the weather pattern moving into the middle of the month.

Third week of November - looks a bit chillier

The pattern begins shifting (according to longer range models) that could bring some colder weather as we move through the middle of the month. This colder weather could take us right up to Thanksgiving.

Heading toward Thanksgiving - colder

What information is available to us now shows a potential colder outbreak around the Thanksgiving holiday. Models don't indicate a big storm or heavy rain or snow, but the possibility we could have a big surge of colder air coming south.

Summary: I think November will have many big temperature swings and we will get some moisture, but the chances of a very wet (or white) month seem low right now. Expect some of the coldest weather of the month to arrive toward the 2nd half of the month.