A dent in the drought? Let's look

First off, I hope everyone has a nice Easter weekend. I know the weather may not turn out the way you had hoped, but at least we don't have to worry about difficult driving conditions. We will have quite the chill Sunday morning with wind chills down in the 20s, but the blast of colder weather is only around for about 36 hours.

We are heading into another stretch of dry weather for the Plains going into our first week of April. But I've been watching the longer range models for any sign of some wet weather and we may have something cooking.

Late Next Week:

A powerful jet will be coming into the West and that could lead to increased rain chances across a larger area of the Plains.

American Model (GFS) for the 1st weekend in April

Other long range models seem to be hinting at wet weather too. Take a look at this collection of models for the period of April 6-11, highlighting what could be a rather nice swath of some rain from the High Plains of Colorado and Nebraska to the Ozarks.

One thing is for certain, we still have some VERY chilly air headed this way. I think we could see some record cold temperatures here in another week. A LARGE batch of much colder air will slide out of the northern Plains toward Kansas, so I would be cautious planting too many sensitive plants right now as winter isn't quite ready to give up.

La Nina Update - where are we headed

Welcome to Wednesday and once again, we were missed by some very heavy rains that setup to our southeast. I'm getting several questions about what kind of spring we may be in for, and will the summer be a hot and dry one.

First, let's look at the latest on El Nino/La Nina. Both are extremely important in what comes next for Kansas. Even though the phenomenon is thousands of miles from Kansas, they have huge impacts.

El Nino - warmer than normal water
La Nina - cooler than normal water
Here's where that cooler than normal water is located:

And here's the latest trend:

La Nina is just about over with, and will likely end entirely in the next 2-3 months. We could be trending toward a weak El Nino, but that's unclear right now.

What you should know right now:
Severe weather season this year will likely be very slow to start. There's still quite a bit of chilly air to work with for early April, and with it being cooler than normal, severe weather risks will be lower.

Severe Weather:
History shows that with a La Nina influence, there tends to be a greater chance for some hail & tornadoes. However, our La Nina is pretty weak and getting weaker, so that increased threat may be diminished this time around.

Early summer thoughts:
I am a bit concerned that if we don't get some decent rains in the next 60 days (and chances aren't that promising) that we could be in for a warmer than average summer. I'm not saying we will have 40-50 100° days, but one has to think with a lack of moisture, our summer temperatures may heat up quickly. But let's see how the rest of our spring shapes up.

Is it safe to begin your garden?

Welcome to the home stretch of March with Easter in view and the frost/freeze date getting close. Some of your are itching to start your vegetable garden and the wheat is beginning to grow now that we've had some rain. Hold off planting any sensitive plans right now. Another blast of cold air could be arriving on Easter.

Here's what to watch:

Thursday - A system approaching from the west (which 9 times out of 10 doesn't produce much moisture) could bring a swath of some rain and snow to the area. It will likely start in eastern Colorado and then dive southeast across Kansas. The track and amounts are uncertain right now, but wintry weather could be headed back this way later in the week.

11 a.m. Thursday

4 p.m. Thursday

Easter Sunday surprise:

Much colder air may show up on Easter. A strong front will slide through the area and drop temperatures WELL below normal. Arctic air on April 1st will be different than December 1st or January 1st, but we may be looking at highs in the 30s for a good chunk of central and western Kansas. Overnight temperatures will be dropping too, so I would hold off getting too many plants in the ground with a long range forecast still calling for some cold weather. 

Have we turned the corner on the dry spell?

If you're like me, you still have a smile on your face from the rain that fell Sunday night/Monday. The drought definitely isn't over, but have we turned the corner?

The short answer to that is no, but we are seeing at least more opportunities for SOME rain in the next 2-3 weeks. A widespread, soaking event like we had earlier this week is not likely to happen again soon.

Next week: A deep system will form over the desert Southwest Sunday-Monday. This will be a slow moving storm, so some areas are going to get a good soaking. Latest data is pushing some of the heavier moisture farther east, but keep in mind the storm hasn't formed, so there could be some other changes in the computer models still to come.

More chilly weather is coming too: Below normal temperatures (which would typically be highs in the 40s/50s) will likely be with us as we close out the month of March.

More wet weather nearby: Looking into early April, there are signs of more wet weather occurring in the central and southern Plains. But will it all go east of us? That's something we will watch for as this years storm track has favored the heavier rains to go north, east, and south of Kansas.

Areas dealing with drought can expect some occasional rains, but breaking the drought doesn't look likely anytime soon. For that to happen, we are going to need a major overhaul in the way storms approaching Kansas setup.

Rainfall amounts ending at 7 a.m. Monday

Some of you will be smiling today because of the welcome rain and moisture across the state. This is certainly the wettest storm Kansas has had since early fall (2017), and it comes at a critical time. The wheat is trying to grow, grass is wanting to green up, and drought has been expanding for months now. The drought is NOT over though. That won't happen until we get several more inches of rain (which hopefully doesn't all come at one time)

Through 7 a.m. Monday:

Hutch: 1.51"

Great Bend: 1.39"

Dodge City: 1.03" (1" of snow)

Emporia: 1.02"

Wichita: .97"

Newton: .87"

Winfield: .83"

Medicine Lodge: .80"

Pratt: .77"

Salina: .59"

Garden City: .33"

Hill City: .29"

Concordia: .29"

Hays: .27"

Russell: .25"

Goodland: .14" (1" of snow)

How likely are we to get rain?

We made it to the weekend and I'll keep this post short. Wanted to share some new images with you on how the late weekend storm is shaping up. I know I'm getting excited for the possibilities, but I also know how our luck has been going as of late. So here's what the models were showing us yesterday:

And here's what I'm seeing today:

I don't think there's any harm if this storm ends up tracking a bit farther south. If it does, it's going to bring some of the heavier rain possibilities farther south into more of our state. But we will see how things change over the weekend. I think we have reason to be excited about this storm, but it won't wipe the drought away. That will take a very long time considering how dry we have been.

Have a great weekend!

Could it be? Rain may just be on the way!

As you enjoy March Madness, the games, bracket busting, and cheering on your team, please continue to cheer on some rain. I know farmers and ranchers have just about had it with this weather pattern and the the seemingly endless dry spell we are in. It's a frustrating spot to be in right now, but all we can do is sit back and watch.

Thursday Night Rain:

What looked like a fairly decent shot at some moisture in northeast Kansas is now shaping up to be a dud. Latest trends are taking most of the meaningful moisture into Nebraska and Iowa. So again, another near miss for our state.

STORM TO WATCH - Sunday:

A storm that's been on the West coast for the last 3 days will finally be moving into the Plains at the end of the weekend. This storm has the possibility of being the biggest rain maker in months for some. If the "L" on the map tracks farther north, we are in trouble. If it continues to track farther south, we might end up with more than 10 drops.

Current Trend - moving the storm south

Rain chances would increase Sunday night and early Monday. Some snow may mix with the rain in northwest Kansas early Monday. The potential is there for some .50-1", but exactly where it falls is unknown right now. Let's hope the computer models are correct.

Stormy West - will this help KS?

March Madness has arrived in the basketball world, but where's our March Madness in the weather? March storms can be wicked in the sense that some will produce snow on one side with tornadoes on the other. There's no sign of that happening in Kansas anytime soon, but wow, here we are approaching the halfway point of the month and still, no good moisture.

Shocker fans out in San Diego are about to get met with some soaking rains. Good thing the games are inside because the forecast is full of rain. Just look at the forecast for how much rain could fall between now and the weekend. That western storm is one to watch throughout the week, but there isn't a single computer model that gives us much moisture from that system.

Thursday Night Rain:
Showers and storms will develop in northern Kansas Thursday night. Severe weather isn't expected, but there will be some nice rains over far northern Kansas and especially into the northeast.

Friday: A few leftover showers will still be around, but amounts aren't going to be anything spectacular.

Here are a couple of images showing what kind of precipitation may fall across the central Plains. The first shows rainfall amounts through March 22. And just look where most of it goes. Same areas that had snow this winter are now expected to get rain. It's striking the similarities between the rain and snow tracks.

This other image takes us out to the end of the month and even into early April. What we would want to see are more green colors over our area, and instead, it's all east.

The pattern is not likely to change significantly anytime soon. But with warming temperatures, the air can hold more moisture. That would at least offer up some hope that future storms coming through produce more than just a few drops.

Two rain chances on the way

It doesn't matter how many times I look at these numbers or talk about them, it still amazes me that southwest Kansas has gone over half a year... nearly 200 days on .53". That's just incredible when you think about it. Typically during the course of one year, southwest Kansas will get about 20-22" of precipitation.

It's not much better farther east, but the actual moisture is a little higher. 

Can we expect something to change soon? Will the 2nd half of March get better?

I don't exactly see a major shift in the pattern yet. If there's any good news to pass along is that we continue to see storms hitting the West coast and moving east. It's what I would consider a steady pattern, but not exactly a stormy one. A stormy pattern would be active weather about every 3-4 days, and we aren't there yet. And I don't think we are going to see that return in March. Here's the rainfall outlook taking us into late March. And once again, western Kansas continues to miss out.

Saturday, March 10 Rain Chance:

A storm will slide through the Plains at the beginning of the weekend. This is not going to be a severe weather maker in Kansas, but some thunder is expected around southern Kansas. It's also unlikely to produce any big amounts of rain. Best chances will be east of Dodge City and south of Great Bend/Salina (basically south central and southeast Kansas) Rainfall amounts of .25" look most likely with this storm.

Possible St Patrick's Weekend Storm:

Another system will be developing and pushing into the Plains around St Patrick's Day. Will we get more than just wind? Early signs point toward a rain chance for central and eastern Kansas, but unless something drastic changes with the track/intensity of the storm, western Kansas may miss out. I expect windy weather by the end of next week with rain chances possibly arriving Saturday evening.

Do you know the answer to these questions?

As Severe Weather Awareness Week continues in Kansas, we wanted to see how much you know about tornadoes. See how many of these you can get correct.

Answers:
Question 1 - True. Almost all tornadoes will rotate counter-clockwise, but it is possible for them to go both directions. Usually, tornadoes that rotate clockwise (in the Northern Hemisphere) don't last very long.

Question 2 - False. Tornadoes are more common in the afternoon and evening because temperatures are at their warmest during those hours of the day. Tornadoes do happen at night, but not as often because as temperatures cool down, the threat diminishes some. However, tornadoes at night are extremely dangerous, especially if you are sleeping when one approaches.

Question 3 - Believe it or not, the first EF-5 was Greensburg in 2007. The updated "Enhanced" Fujita Scale was unveiled in 2006, and when Greensburg happened a year later, it was the first EF-5 rating. Winds were well over 200 mph. 

Question 4 - False. Just because the sky turns green does not necessarily mean a tornado is about to happen. Green sky indicates heavy precipitation and usually some large hail. The water contained in the storm scatters that particular light from the sun, giving it that greenish (very ominous) color.

Question 5 - True. Large tornadoes (EF4-EF5) like Andover, Greensburg, and Hesston make up less than 2% of all tornadoes experienced in Kansas. Therefore, they are considered rare, but when they do happen, many of them stay on the ground for close to an hour.

Question 6 - 60. In 2017, there were 60 tornadoes. On a bad day in Kansas when conditions are just right, we can see half of the yearly average in a 24 hour period.

Question 7 - False. Never try to outrun a tornado. Highways and interstates could be jammed, not to mention the possibility of traffic accidents or power lines that are down. It's best to shelter where you are and not take that added risk of getting into a car.

Question 8 - False. Sirens go off when a warning is issued, or threatening weather is nearby, but sirens are not sounded to give an all-clear.

Question 9 - False. Tornadoes don't develop an "eye" like hurricanes. It mainly has to do with size of storm. Hurricanes do form an eye because they are much larger in size. Don't let the movie Twister or the Wizard of Oz fool you.

Question 10 - False. In most cases that will be the case, but there are times when storms develop so fast that a warning may be issued before the watch (remember watches come from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK)

How did you do?

There's still a chance...

We aren't giving up hope just yet on some rain for Sunday night. There's so much humidity coming straight out of the Gulf of Mexico it's hard to imagine not getting something to develop Sunday night. Just look at the dew points (a measure of how much moisture is in the air), and when they get above 55, there's more than enough humidity to get rain. This is a very rich connection with the Gulf of Mexico.

What's interesting about this weekend storm. If it were the middle of April or May, we'd have our hands full with severe storms. The setup would normally favor hail, wind, and tornadoes, but because it's early March and the timing isn't quite right, chances of any severe weather are rather low.

Our Future Track is showing this for Sunday night. 

Where the rain is likely needed the most (SW Kansas), there won't be any moisture to speak of with the next storm.

Coming up next week, we will get into what La Nina is up to and look ahead to the middle of March.

Weekend storm chances

Coasting into the weekend and we are just a few days away from the next possibility of some rain. It's been a very frustrating winter with so many storms missing us to the south or north.

Our next storm comes into the Plains this weekend. Just look at the Gulf of Mexico moisture pushing north starting Saturday and even more noticeable Sunday.

Sunday Chances:
This will be an interesting storm to watch. Chances for rain will return to all but SW Kansas the way this storm is tracking now.  This is a very springlike setup, and with the extra warmth and humidity, it's possible we could end up with small hail falling from the stronger thunderstorms. And later Sunday night, chances for SNOW in northern Kansas too. Just have to love March storms.

March can be a weird month with severe storms, tornadoes, and blizzards. Ask anyone that has lived here for awhile and they will tell you weird things can happen in March. We've had blizzards in western Kansas with tornadoes in the east. But for right now, I don't see any major storms like that heading this way.