La Nina Update - where are we headed

Welcome to Wednesday and once again, we were missed by some very heavy rains that setup to our southeast. I'm getting several questions about what kind of spring we may be in for, and will the summer be a hot and dry one.

First, let's look at the latest on El Nino/La Nina. Both are extremely important in what comes next for Kansas. Even though the phenomenon is thousands of miles from Kansas, they have huge impacts.

El Nino - warmer than normal water
La Nina - cooler than normal water
Here's where that cooler than normal water is located:

And here's the latest trend:

La Nina is just about over with, and will likely end entirely in the next 2-3 months. We could be trending toward a weak El Nino, but that's unclear right now.

What you should know right now:
Severe weather season this year will likely be very slow to start. There's still quite a bit of chilly air to work with for early April, and with it being cooler than normal, severe weather risks will be lower.

Severe Weather:
History shows that with a La Nina influence, there tends to be a greater chance for some hail & tornadoes. However, our La Nina is pretty weak and getting weaker, so that increased threat may be diminished this time around.

Early summer thoughts:
I am a bit concerned that if we don't get some decent rains in the next 60 days (and chances aren't that promising) that we could be in for a warmer than average summer. I'm not saying we will have 40-50 100° days, but one has to think with a lack of moisture, our summer temperatures may heat up quickly. But let's see how the rest of our spring shapes up.