Thoughts on Eureka; weekend changes coming

I had an opportunity to see the tornado damage Wednesday evening for myself. It's always hard to walk around and see the devastation in person, realizing people have lost the comfort, safety, and privacy of their home.

As we've already reported, the tornado reached EF3 strength with a damage length of 2 miles. It was reported to be 250 yards wide. But what was striking to me (and it isn't anything new with tornadoes) is how one home was completely untouched, while the house immediately across the street had the roof ripped off. The image posted above was captured out of our 6 p.m. newscast Thursday. I immediately started thinking about how this could've happened and trying to visualize what the tornado would've looked like as it went through town. 

Large, violent tornadoes (like Greensburg, Hesston, Andover, etc) are considered rare. They make up less than 2% of all tornadoes we get in Kansas. But those kinds of tornadoes usually come with a decent amount of warning. In the case of Greensburg, there was easily 20-30 minutes of preparation time. But in the case of Eureka, this was a small storm (what we referred to as "isolated"), and it just happened to spin up a tornado in the wrong spot. Large, violent tornadoes wipe out everything in their path. Smaller, multi-vortex tornadoes (like Eureka), can skip around from spot to spot.

Weekend Storm Chances:

A front will slide into the area Saturday and should ignite more storms over the area. The setup isn't favorable for severe storms, but small hail, heavy rains, gusty winds, and lightning will all be a threat. Rainfall amounts won't be overly huge, but if you end up with .25-.50", you'll be some of the lucky ones. The rainfall will not be widespread, but at least we have a chance at some moisture. The hot weather sure dries things out in a hurry.

Eureka tornado images

Good morning and thanks for checking out the blog. Our thoughts are with those impacted by last nights storms. I wanted to share some radar images from the Tuesday night storm that hit Eureka. This was a storm that didn't give us much notice before dropping a tornado over Eureka. 

The warning was issued at 7:19 and the radar image shows the rotation right over town. Just a couple minutes later, it was over and had moved east of Eureka.

Using another mode of the radar, we were able to detect some debris just after the storm went through Eureka. 

Damage assessment crews will be investigating the damage to determine and EF rating. Without seeing it first hand, it's hard to say exactly how strong the tornado might have been, but it looks to me like maybe EF2 or perhaps EF3. That would be considered a strong tornado on the Enhanced Fujita Scale.

• EF2 = 111-135 mph
• EF3 = 136-165 mph

From some of the pictures, here's a look at what National Weather Service meteorologists will be looking at when they get into town. This is just some of the damage, but a small sample of what will help them determine how strong the winds may have been in the tornado.

Rainfall amounts & a hot week ahead

Here are some 24 hour rainfall amounts from the noisy storms that rolled through Sunday evening/night:

Mt. Hope: 2.32"
Medicine Lodge: 2.13"
Winfield: 1.83"
Newton: 1.82"
Pratt: 1.81"
Goodland: 1.20"
Great Bend: 0.98"
Hutch: 0.89"
Salina: 0.75"
Hill City: 0.71"
Elkhart: 0.67"
Liberal: 0.63"
Russell: 0.59"
Dodge City: 0.59"
Garden City: 0.54"
Hays: 0.52"
Concordia: 0.23"

The radar shows a big swath of western Kansas picked up heavy amounts of rain from both Saturday and the storms Sunday evening.

This week will see a shift from stormy to mainly hot & dry. The pattern changes a bit to allow for highs to get back above normal and many will see the faucet turned off. Most areas east of the Rockies are going to see some very hot weather.

Two more rounds of severe weather coming

It's great to be back and focusing on our next round of strong to severe storms that will impact Kansas. I was in Boston this week for training and talking with other meteorologists from across the country on how they cover weather in their areas. So much to learn from our peers and gather new ideas on how we can improve.

Setup for today (Friday):

This next round will start early evening in western Kansas. Some large hail and strong winds up to 70 mph, and heavy rains will be the main concerns. Once the storms get going, they will be pushing east/southeast and weaken in time. I expect after 10 p.m., the severe threat will diminish substantially. Heaviest rainfall amounts will be in west central and southwest Kansas. Some areas could get over 1.5-2".

Sunday evening-early Monday:

This will be another very healthy storm pushing out of the Rockies with heavy rainfall, wind, and hail threats. It will likely start during the early evening in western Kansas and then move east. More heavy rains will fall with this round and it could very well hit some of the same areas that were hit with heavy rains just a few weeks back. I know some runoff would be welcome to fill farm ponds and put water back in lakes/streams, but this could be dangerous if we end up getting too much. So please be prepared for another round of active weather right at the end of the weekend.

Rain, some heavy, on the way

Badly needed rainfall will be arriving in Kansas this week. No doubt you've probably seen forecasts that are just covered in rain, but will we get that much and will the week be a washout. 

Harvest is in full swing, which should be enough to make it rain, right? 

Setup for today (Monday):

Pop up storms will show up in Kansas today. Most of the storms will NOT be severe, but some pockets of heavy downpours and very small hail seem likely. Storms will dissipate between 7-9 p.m.

Most widespread, heavy rains come Tuesday Eve-early Wednesday

We are waiting on a storm in the upper atmosphere coming from Idaho and western Wyoming. That system will interact with a stationary front in Kansas. Our heaviest, most widespread rains will arrive during this time. Some storms could produce gusty winds, but the biggest danger will be  intense rainfall. 

Millie and I won't be back on the air until Friday. Hope everyone has a great week. We could be in for more rain and storms next weekend. Details coming soon.

Interesting tornado numbers & record heat

Halfway through the month of June and if you didn't know any better, you might think it's July or August. So much heat and it's not just Kansas. Look at this map showing how much of the country is above normal. The ridiculously hot temperatures extend all the way across the High Plains and into the Dakotas. Cooler than normal weather has been limited to the Great lakes and the Northeast.

In fact, Dodge City is recording a record warm stretch from the beginning of May through the early part of June. Average high temperature is almost to 90°.

I don't see any big cool stretches coming up for Kansas, but there is a chance next week won't be as hot as what we've had lately.

Are we still on track for record low tornadoes?
A few weeks ago we talked about the possibility. Since then, the atmosphere has warmed up and we've started to get severe weather. PRELIMINARY, we've had 34 tornadoes in Kansas. That number may change up or down depending on further investigation, but we have more than Oklahoma and Texas combined.

We have had a slight uptick in the number of tornadoes across the country over the last month, but we are still tracking WELL below the normal threshold. Normal number of tornadoes (across the country) to this point in June would be about 894. In 2018 so far, we are looking at 480. That's not very many when you get down to it and think about how much real estate we are talking about. 

 The graph above shows the trend compared to recent years. The solid black line down toward the bottom is where we are now. And if you look for the dotted black line, you'll see that's considered "normal" for tornado count.

Will Bud in the Pacific bring rain to Kansas?

Some of you have been asking if the tropical system Bud in the Pacific will have a chance to bring some extra rain to Kansas. The storm is weakening as it approaches Baja California and will make landfall Friday. Big, soaking rains will hit east of Cabo San Lucas and it will maintain its tropical storm strength as it approaches Mexico.

Forecast maps give western parts of Mexico over 5 inches of rain. So flooding will be an issue for some areas. But follow the path of moisture right up into Colorado and the Rockies. The moisture gets close to Kansas, but stays just a little too far west to do us much of any good.

Good news for some though. As the moisture continues north, it's going to go right over Durango, Colorado where they have been battling fires since the beginning of the month. So the moisture will help firefighters, as long as lightning doesn't start problems. The map below shows where some of the fires are in Colorado.

When will Kansas have more rain?

Most of us will have to wait until next week (Monday/Tuesday) for a cold front to move back into the area, which will help to develop storms and cool temperatures down. It's still early, but rain chances look a little more promising with this setup given that the front will be stronger than any of the ones we've seen lately. Stay tuned.

Best chance for storms this week

Combines are rolling in many different areas, so the last thing we want now is a bunch of hail to ruin a ripe wheat crop. But our best chance for storms is on the way tonight and early Wednesday.

Yesterdays cold front is going to hang out over Kansas today and tonight, and may still be around yet Wednesday morning. So some of our best chances for rain will come between now and lunch time Wednesday.

Some hail and gusty winds (up to about 60 mph) will be possible over southern Kansas into the night. Storms should track east and there will be pockets of heavier rain, but by now, you know how this probably goes. Not everyone will get a good soaking.

Storms will begin across southwest and south central Kansas late into the evening. Storms may be scattered, but then should grow into more of a complex that will impact a big part of southern Kansas.

The front will still be around early Wednesday, so chances for rain may continue through Wednesday morning, but the afternoon dries out. AND... it's going to be much cooler too. Highs will be in the 80s for most of the state. 

Severe chance this evening

Welcome to Monday and hope everyone had a nice weekend. It was definitely a hot one with temperatures around 100 in many areas yesterday.

There is a cold front in Kansas today, which is going to be the focus for some strong storms as we head into the evening hours. Here's a look at the risk area for today:

Storms will start developing after 4/5 p.m. and the threat of large hail and strong winds will be the primary risks.

Here's a look at some other particular time periods through the evening. Storms should move southeast once they develop, and if we see a line of storms form (which may not happen until late in the evening) should drop to the south as the front continues to push on through.

This front will help to knock temperatures down, and some of us may not get out of the 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

A stormy stretch ahead

Feels good that Friday has arrived and while this weekend will look and feel like July, we will be focusing our attention on storm chances that come back next week.

Summertime storms can be quite a challenge to forecast because the smallest piece of energy in the atmosphere can set off a bunch of storms.

But here's what will happen:

A cold front arrives Monday, but chances for rain will NOT. The front starts to knock temperatures down in western Kansas where highs will return to the 80s. Farther east, it looks like more 90s.

Rain chances:
The center of high pressure will be down in western Texas and I think that will open the door to a series of systems that will move out of the Rockies. Each one could bring storms to Kansas. The first batch could arrive late Tuesday night, but I think scattered rain/thunder look more likely on Wednesday and again Wednesday night. And the increase in clouds SHOULD result in some slightly cooler weather. So most of us should see highs fall back to the lower 80s.

Another round of storms could be coming in for Thursday too. Some strong storms will be possible, but at this point, exact locations in the path of severe weather are unclear.

Bottom line is that the early heat wave for Kansas should break after we get passed the weekend. But it definitely won't be the end of the hot weather.

Rainfall Amounts

Rainfall Amounts (through 7 a.m.)
Medicine Lodge - 1.38"
Pratt - 0.36"
Garden City - 0.23"
Great Bend - 0.19"
Winfield - 0.19"
Hays - 0.15"
Wichita - 0.13"
Russell - 0.04"
Dodge City - 0.01"

The heaviest of the rain went across parts of southwest and south central Kansas. Most rainfall amounts (as you can see above) were pretty light.

Doppler Radar Estimates from Wichita:

Radar Estimates from Dodge City:

Severe threat tonight

Good afternoon. We have a chance for some strong to severe storms as we head into the late evening/overnight hours. It's looking like most of the state will see rain and storms, and given the timing, it looks like it will be right in the middle of the night. So, could be a sleepless night in many parts of the state. Oh boy.

Severe Threats:
This is looking to mostly be a wind and heavy rainfall situation. I don't think very many of the Kansas storms will have large hail, but if there is going to be a threat for hail, it will likely be in far western and northern Kansas. Wind gusts up to 60 mph look likely with stronger storms. And once the storms get going, they will generally push to the east and then turn to the southeast.

Timing:

The storms look to start in eastern Colorado and then will drift into western Kansas. We may also see some storms coming from Nebraska too. But this isn't going to happen until closer to dark.

Later into the night, storms will be pushing toward central Kansas with some pockets of heavy rainfall and some wind.

As dawn approaches Thursday, that's when storms may get to south central and parts of eastern Kansas. They won't be severe at this time, but some heavy downpours are possible from time to time.

Rain chances this week

It's beginning to look, feel, and sound a lot like July. (The Christmas song pops into my head as I write this), but seriously, if you didn't know any better, looking at the 10 day you might think it's July or August already.

Last year, June ended up like this:

• 15 days with 90s
• 15 days with 80s
• 4.58" of rain in Wichita, 4.44" for Goodland, 1.69" in Salina, and 3.12" for Dodge City

There is at least one, maybe two, rain chances this week:

A little system will slide out of the Rockies and bring some thunderstorms to Nebraska and eastern Colorado Wednesday late in the evening. Then storms are expected to slide southeast into Kansas by early Thursday. Our Future Track has been hinting at this, but other models have been showing it now for 3-4 days.

And we will see if anything develops for Friday. Once again, we see a chance for storms starting in Nebraska and then drifting south into Kansas. These are not going to be widespread severe weather setups, but gusty winds and some heavy rainfall definitely look possible.

Setup later this week:

Here's the struggle getting rain this week. We are up against a large high pressure system that is currently down in Mexico, but will be meandering toward Kansas later this week. That means the hottest temperatures that we will feel will likely arrive at that time too.