A tropical system to watch for the Plains

Hurricane Rosa is now working her way through the Pacific and about to turn northward. Strengthening is expected and Rosa will likely become a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher). Notice the forecast track into the weekend. After turning north, there will be a turn toward the northeast and landfall in Baja, CA. The storm won't hit land until Monday or Tuesday.

And if you follow the path that leftover moisture from Rosa will take, it should reach the Plains during the middle of next week. 

This could lead to our next best chance at some rain and thunder to develop in Kansas. So in our first week of October, tropical moisture should be moving this way.

SNEAK PEEK AT FRIDAY (Sep. 28):

It's going to be quite chilly in the afternoon. A HUGE range in temperatures is expected from north to south. Some areas will have highs near 50, but farther south, there will still be some 70s. There's also a chance for a few showers, but most of those will be very light and happen later Friday evening. And to go along with the chill, northeast winds will make it feel even chillier. 

More cold fronts - changes happening soon

We are on the home stretch of September and after starting out the month with so much wet and cool weather, we are ending on a drier note around most of the state. In fact, when looking at our monthly totals, nearly 75% of the moisture from this month fell in the first week. Most areas of Kansas are near to slightly above normal on rainfall for September.

But for the year, we are still trailing big time in central and south central Kansas. 

Alright, so what kind of features are we watching now?

Temperatures are dropping today, but could go down even more for our last weekend in September. A strong front will end up in Kansas this weekend, but it's exact location is going to dictate how much of that chilly air slides over us.  

And we may get some light rain with the front too, so we will need to keep an eye on Saturdays forecast. It could be a raw, cloudy, wet start to the weekend.

The beginning of October has potential to be a stormy start, but there are some uncertainties. A Pacific storm system could be coming through the southwest part of the US and making things interesting. And if the computer data is correct, we could be in for some wet weather from Tuesday - Wednesday. How much is definitely unknown this many days out, but let's see how things come together over the next several days. 

And what is that in Colorado? Yep, that is early season snow in the higher elevations. It's not uncommon, but a sure sign of the changing setup at the beginning of next week.

Have a great day.

Rainfall amounts - more chances next week

Here are some rainfall reports from around the state (through 7 a.m.)

Kingman: 1.80"
Jabara Airport: 1.40"
Newton: 1.07"
Hill City: 1.05"
Hutchinson: 0.91"
Salina: 0.83"
Medicine Lodge: 0.79"
Clay Center: 0.70"
Smith Center: 0.68"
Dodge City: 0.53"
Elkhart: 0.48"
Larned: 0.47"
Wichita (Eisenhower): 0.45'
Garden City: 0.43"
Concordia: 0.32"
Hays: 0.30"
Ness City: 0.20"
Russell: 0.16"
Goodland: 0.04"

There are two more chances for rain coming up next week. The first will come Monday night-Tuesday, with a second arriving on Thursday. Both chances are associated with cold fronts, so temperatures will remain fairly cool through our last week of September.

Monday-Tuesday:
Chances will increase Monday night and through Tuesday morning. It's unlikely this will be big rain. Amounts will likely be under .50" for almost all of Kansas.

Thursday:
Again, the pattern does NOT favor heavy rains from this passing cold front. So if we end up getting some showers, the amounts will likely come in under .50"

But cool, fall weather will be sticking around. There's no sign of getting any warmer than low 80s over the next 2-3 weeks. Enjoy & have a great weekend.

Rain update & you must see this...

This is it... the last of the 90s that much of Kansas will see for the rest of the year. Feels kinda weird saying that, but soon enough, we will see the last of the 80s, and that may come sooner rather than later. We have some really big changes showing up in the long range. First, let's look at our setup for today and the rain chances moving this way. (You can click on any image to make it larger)

Timing:

Front is already in western Kansas and it's moving east (slowly). Rain should begin developing early this evening in the west. And although we will have some thunder, severe chances are extremely low. 

Closer to 11 p.m./midnight, the rain should be getting into central Kansas. It's very doubtful that we will even hear thunder late Thursday night-early Friday because the atmosphere cools off rather quickly and that will diminish the chances of hearing thunder. 

Friday morning: most of the leftover rain will be focused over south central Kansas, BUT should be gone by early afternoon.

Amounts:

Still looks like .50-1" will be common, with the overall heaviest slipping south into Oklahoma. This could be a pretty soggy weekend just to our south.

Looking ahead (end of September and the first week of October):

We are going to see a major flip in the pattern soon. An enormous chunk of colder air will be slipping south and bring some of the first sub-freezing temperatures to the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Now I don't think we are on the verge of a frost yet, but it could be close, especially in northern Kansas. Just look at some of the extended forecast maps out to early October. Last time I saw a map that looked like this, we had afternoon temperatures 20 degrees below normal. And if that happens going into early October, we are in for highs in the 50s. I'm not concerned that we are slipping into winter before having a fall, but we are certainly kicking summer to the curb faster than you may have wanted. 

Rain returns as we say goodbye 90s

Thanks for spending a few minutes checking out the blog and reading up on our next chances for rain. If you are ready for fall weather, this is a good start. 

TIMING:

The front should get into western Kansas by Tuesday afternoon, but storms won't start developing until 6 or 7 p.m. 

The rain will continue to move from west to east and should begin to exit south central Kansas by Friday afternoon (at the latest)

Amounts:

There's still plenty of discrepancy in the computer models as to how much rain we might get. One model has a bunch of rain focused over south central Kansas with lighter amounts everywhere else. Given the setup, I am expecting most amounts in western Kansas will come in around .50" or less, but because the front will be slowing down as it travels east, there's a good chance much of central and south central Kansas will get close to an inch. There's some very rich moisture (humidity) in place to lead to some heavier rainfall.

Are we about to say goodbye to the 90s for the rest of the year?

It's very likely. Once this latest cold front blasts on through, we should see mostly 70s and 80s to finish out the month, and just look at the map below. Early October is showing signs of being quite cool for most of the area. This could be a lengthy stretch of 60s and 70s for Kansas. Stay tuned.

What's up for the rest of September?

Already halfway through September and after a wet and cool start to the month, we've turned it around. But it hasn't been warm enough to offset the very cool weather from the beginning of the month. So the map is still colored blue for Kansas as our average for the month is still below normal.

What can we expect for the remainder of the month?

Well, fall begins next weekend (Sep. 22) and before we get there, we definitely have some more hot weather ahead for Kansas. Next week should warm close to 90 for the first half of the week. Then a sharp cold front will roll through Thursday evening/night and change things up.

Rainfall:

The rain that we receive on Thursday/Friday could very well be the last of the rain we will get in September. After what was a very soggy beginning to the month, there may not be much rain left for this month. We could transition to a ridge of high pressure for the final week of the month, which would lead to warm and mainly dry weather for most of our area.

Temperatures will warm up a little bit for the last week of the month. September will likely end with Kansas going back under a ridge of high pressure. That will mean dry weather and a return to some warmer weather for the tail end of the month.

Did you know this about hurricanes?

Florence is definitely shaping up to be a devastating storm. Just like we saw with Harvey last year, major rainfall inundated areas for weeks and the cleanup (you could argue) is still happening in some areas.

What makes up a hurricane?
It's basically a large cluster of thunderstorms spinning around a centralized area, with significant winds (over 74 mph) - anything less is NOT a hurricane.

Where do they get their energy?
Hurricanes get their power from the warm, ocean water. In most cases, the water temperatures are above 80°. Look at the map below. Water temperatures are 85° where Florence is currently located.

When does hurricane season peak?
September 10th is usually considered the peak of the season

What ways can hurricanes be measured before they reach land?
Hurricane hunters fly aircraft and criss cross through the eye of the storm. They take many different measurements (not the least of which is air pressure) to try to find the lowest pressure in the eye of the storm. The lower the pressure, the higher the wind speeds.

Of course, there are satellites too. Take a look at the image below. The deep red colors surrounding Florence's eye indicate cloud temperatures of -70 to -80°C. Those are powerful thunderstorms swirling around the eye. So the intensity of hurricanes are measured from space too.

Meteorologists also rely on buoy data and dropsondes to get measures of hurricanes. The image below shows a dropsonde. It's measuring humidity and temperature, and then the GPS on board gives indication on wind information.

Which part of the hurricane is the worst?
It's usually the right side of the hurricane. The combination of forward movement with the wind and storm surge makes it the most dangerous area to be in. But anywhere near the eye is always a bad place to be. That's where the strongest winds are located.

What is storm surge?
The strong winds that occur around the hurricane push water levels to very extreme heights, flooding nearly everything in their path. While some waves can be 25-30 feet tall, most storm surge is lower than that. In the case of Florence, storm surge will likely be 8-12 feet.

Can tornadoes happen with landfalling hurricanes?
Yes. In fact, they are common, but most of the time they are very brief. Many of them happen on the right side of the eye because of how the hurricanes rotate.

Watching Florence - take a look

All eyes this week (and most of the news too) will be on Hurricane Florence which is expected to hit the East coast late in the week. But will it be in Georgia or will it be in North Carolina?

Just look at the difference in computer models. The first one shown below is from the European model, which is a very reliable model and sometimes does a much better job than our American models.

The GFS (Global Forecast System) has Florence hitting the East coast a bit farther north (in North Carolina).

So it's not clear yet exactly where it will go. Remember that the worst side of the storm to be on is the right side (in this case, anywhere north of the eye will be a very rough spot to be in). And this storm could slow down or stall for a period of time. So major flooding is going to be an issue. The official track from the National Hurricane Center is a blend of the two models shown above.

Florence is being driven to the northwest by a large high pressure system that is positioned farther north. Water temperatures in that area are warmer than normal and Florence is right there on the edge of 80+ degree water. So let's continue to watch it through the week and see exactly where its going to go. Have a great day.

Here we go, next pattern shift coming soon

Welcome to Friday and what a week this has been with the heavy rains and cloudy weather. I actually thought this might be our weather next week during the fair, but it showed up about 4-5 days early. But at least we've found some moisture for places that have routinely been missed.

While we get ready for a big shift in the pattern around here, we will keep an eye on what's brewing in the Atlantic. The season has been rather uneventful in the Atlantic, but we have turned the corner and the next couple of weeks could be quite active.

Florence is likely to become a major hurricane early next week. It's track should bring it close to the US but may stay just off the coast. It will be traveling over warmer than normal water and should allow it to intensify quickly.

There are two more areas to watch that could become tropical systems in time.

NEXT WEEK:
The jet stream setup looks very different. So sunshine will be back in full force and the temperatures will be warming quite a bit. It's not going to be anything out of the ordinary though, as normal highs are still in the upper 80s. But after a week full of cloudy weather, you might welcome a lengthy stretch of some calmer weather and brighter skies.

Have a great weekend.

Does Gordon make it to Kansas?

Gordon came onshore as a hurricane Tuesday evening and continues to weaken as it moves to the northwest. It's unusual for a tropical system to pass through the Bahamas, clip Florida, and then move so far west that it has a chance of clipping Kansas. 

So how does this happen?

We've had a strong ridge (high pressure) over the eastern third of the US. Around that, winds blow clockwise. Meanwhile, a low pressure system has been anchored over the desert Southwest and with counterclockwise winds around it, this is a favorable setup to allow Gordon to drift so far west.

Where will the system end up?

The system should continue on its northwest track until Friday afternoon when it turns more to the north. Some parts of far eastern Kansas may see the outer edges of Gordon, but even that might be a stretch. 

By Saturday, the system is getting swept to the east with heavy rains likely across Missouri. 

The upper level winds coming from the west should continue to shove Gordon on to the east and what's left of the system will dissolve in time.