Rain update & you must see this...

This is it... the last of the 90s that much of Kansas will see for the rest of the year. Feels kinda weird saying that, but soon enough, we will see the last of the 80s, and that may come sooner rather than later. We have some really big changes showing up in the long range. First, let's look at our setup for today and the rain chances moving this way. (You can click on any image to make it larger)

Timing:

Front is already in western Kansas and it's moving east (slowly). Rain should begin developing early this evening in the west. And although we will have some thunder, severe chances are extremely low. 

Closer to 11 p.m./midnight, the rain should be getting into central Kansas. It's very doubtful that we will even hear thunder late Thursday night-early Friday because the atmosphere cools off rather quickly and that will diminish the chances of hearing thunder. 

Friday morning: most of the leftover rain will be focused over south central Kansas, BUT should be gone by early afternoon.

Amounts:

Still looks like .50-1" will be common, with the overall heaviest slipping south into Oklahoma. This could be a pretty soggy weekend just to our south.

Looking ahead (end of September and the first week of October):

We are going to see a major flip in the pattern soon. An enormous chunk of colder air will be slipping south and bring some of the first sub-freezing temperatures to the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Now I don't think we are on the verge of a frost yet, but it could be close, especially in northern Kansas. Just look at some of the extended forecast maps out to early October. Last time I saw a map that looked like this, we had afternoon temperatures 20 degrees below normal. And if that happens going into early October, we are in for highs in the 50s. I'm not concerned that we are slipping into winter before having a fall, but we are certainly kicking summer to the curb faster than you may have wanted.