Sneak peek into July

We thought June would probably have half of the rainfall that May did, and as it would turn out, that was a pretty decent forecast for much of the state. Most places didn't come anywhere close to what fell in May, which was one of the wettest Mays ever recorded. Here's an updated map with June rainfall for the area.

And now we are staring into July, which is typically when our heat in Kansas peaks. We aren't going to have a major heat wave in July, but we will still have plenty of days where we are sweating it out. Our long range models are suggesting much of the central US will have temperatures near or slightly below normal. That should give us a nice mix of 80s and 90s. Typically, the last week of July is our hottest time of the year, but every summer is different. This year, mid-late July should be tolerable as you can see in the images below.

Precipitation:
July is the 4th wettest (on average) month out of the year. It is however, the wettest month (on average) for Goodland, and second wettest on average for Salina and Dodge City. July is shaping up to be a drier month than (quite the opposite of May and June). I would expect isolated rainfall events, not the widespread precipitation we've been accustomed to lately. This will mean flooding conditions should improve and high water levels at lakes and rivers should improve greatly in the coming weeks.

Summer pattern is here... finally

I wasn't sure if we'd ever make it through the hail, wind, endless flooding, and tornadoes that this spring delivered to Kansas. It has been an unbelievable stretch when you get down to it. Kansas is currently running above normal on the tornado count and in second place across the country. The official numbers might change a bit, but we average about 80 tornadoes in a year and we are now above 100.

Since the beginning of April, our longest dry spell for south central Kansas has been roughly 10-11 days. It's a similar stat for Salina. 

Dodge City went 23 days without measurable rain in April, but shortly after that, the rains started falling and we really haven't been able to shut it off in the last two months. 

How long will this upcoming dry pattern hang around?

First, it doesn't look like we are headed to a major heat wave. We've been saying this will NOT be the summer for that kind of setup. The additional moisture that covers our area will help to moderate the temperatures, likely keeping us away from any long stretches of above normal temperatures. 

In fact, I'll show you a map for average temperatures just after the 4th of July holiday. It shows a big pocket of cool weather across the central Plains. So we could end up with some pretty decent temperatures through much of July (when we would otherwise be getting some of our hottest weather of the year).  

As for rainfall, we may start to get some chances of storms back around the 4th. That's when our next front may reach the area, but between now and the middle of next week, much of the area should get to enjoy some calmer weather. Most of us will appreciate that I'm sure.

Weekend storms & first for us this year

Summer begins Friday at 10:54 AM and like a switch, the heat will be increasing and we see our first signs of a summertime weather pattern. More about that in a second.

Weekend storm setup - chances of heavy rain!

There will be another front arriving in the area that will likely stall right over the Plains. It's strongest impact will likely be felt Saturday evening/night when several storms develop along the front and produce heavy rains, wind, and some hail. The front should stretch from Texas to Iowa, and there will likely be storms throughout the area. 

It looks like storms will begin in southwest, central, and northern Kansas Saturday evening around 6/7. The line of storms will then SLOWLY move east and the heavy rain chances will continue into the night. There will be some areas of flooding once again, so use caution as this will happening into the night.

Sunday - Areas southeast of the Turnpike should be in line for the heavy rains at the end of the weekend. There will still be some chances for hail and wind in southeast Kansas, but flooding should still be at the top of our concerns as that will be a widespread issue.

Rainfall amounts - we could very easily get an inch or two from the storms Saturday night. Heaviest amounts, which still look to target northeast Oklahoma, would likely be a combination of Saturday AND Sunday rainfall. These areas are still cleaning up and drying out after the May floods.

Next week - first signs of a summer setup!

We start to see a high pressure system taking shape down in Mexico (that's where the center of it will be). Even though it's hundreds of miles from Kansas, the impacts should still be noticed around here. We are not headed for a major heat wave out of this, but the steering winds aloft (the jet stream) will weaken and storm chances will become very spotty. I'm not saying we won't have any storm chance at all, but more people will have sunshine and 90s than be hit by storms.

A few active days for the Plains

June is flying by and for much of the state, the rainfall we are seeing is much more hit and miss than it was in May. We are still getting some pockets of very heavy downpours, but that's a little better than everyone floating away. The map below shows what we've had for this month, and compared to the 10-15" that fell in May, this is much more manageable.

June rain so far

Setup today (Tuesday):

There will be some strong to severe storms this afternoon, mostly across central and eastern Kansas. We are looking at a wind/hail threat once storms get going. And storms will move southeast into the evening with a continued threat of some strong wind gusts. These storms will develop as a cold front moves through. Behind the front, we should all cool off Wednesday.

Next weekend - more active weather:

I'm a bit concerned about a heavy rain setup for Kansas and surrounding areas (that absolutely don't need it). Harvest is just beginning for many areas and we need to rains to stop for just a minute while combines get ready to roll. We are confident a slow moving low pressure from the Rockies will head toward the Plains with a stationary front over the area too. If this setup actually happens, we may be looking at some heavy rains and flooding.

El Nino/La Nina - where are we at right now

El Nino and La Nina are phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that have profound impacts on the weather patterns across the United States. Occasionally, we hear from you wanting to know which one is active and what the outcome might be for our area.

El Nino continues: Right now, the water along the equator in the Pacific continues to be warmer than average, which puts us in an El Nino setup. It's not record setting or anything out of the ordinary, just water temperatures running about 1°C above normal. It' not even a moderately strong El Nino, but they don't have to be in order to have big impacts on the patterns. It's not the entire Pacific ocean that's warmer than normal. The area that we study closest is highlighted in the box.

How long will it continue: Model projections keep the El Nino around through the rest of summer, through the fall, and right into next winter. If you look at the graph below, you will see the red line is already in El Nino territory and doesn't go up or down much. That would suggest the water temperatures will remain nearly steady, and El Nino conditions should persist for several more months. 

What does this mean for Kansas? As we've been suggesting for months, we won't have a scorching summer. All of the rain this spring combined with the weather patterns we are seeing through summer should keep us from any heat waves. That doesn't mean you won't sweat on certain days, but heat waves are not part of our summer this year. Will the El Nino this fall mean more wet weather? It's too early to know the answer, but El Nino setups tend to favor more rain for this area. So we shall see. Let's enjoy our nice summer for now.

If you are into star gazing - Jupiter is what you will want to look for the next several nights. You won't need binoculars, but look to the southeast sky after it gets dark in the evening. It should be pretty bright, unless we have some clouds blanketing the sky above you. 

Fantastic weather now, but heads up to this...

We've just had some incredible weather these last few days with the humidity being VERY low and temperatures getting stuck in the 70s for most areas. It's the kind of weather you might find in San Diego or LA, but Kansas in June? It's strange, but 70s in June aren't unheard of, especially when you are well above normal on rainfall. 

How common are 70s in June?

We did have a few years recently (2016-2017) where we didn't have any 70° weather in June. But when you look back over the last 5 or 6 years, you'll see we typically get a few. It's not usually cool enough to set very many records, but it sure feels weird. The reason we are seeing such cool air is because the northern Plains and northern Rockies have been extremely cool this spring, and we are feeling a small piece of it that has slipped farther south. 

Active weather about to unfold once again:

It's not the kind of news farmers will want to hear right now as wheat harvest is just weeks away. Harvest is no doubt late this year because of the cool, wet weather in May. And this outlook is a tough one to swallow as several waves of storms will be on the way for the next TWO weeks.

Here's what will happen - at the end of this week, we will see our winds aloft return from the west. Several small scale storms will approach and come right over the Rockies. This will likely favor evening and nighttime storms that roll off the higher elevations in Colorado and move east. Afternoon time periods should be free of storms, the overnight hours could be active. And this will be something we will have to deal with at least through the end of next week (so yes, all the way through June 22/23). 

Normally we see our severe chances drop off around the first day of summer, but this summer will likely be different. I'm expecting we will have more opportunities for hail and wind setting up as we head toward next week. 

End of June could have more breaks in the rain: 

I don't know that I would call it dry, but we should have some breaks in the rainfall at the end of the month.

A wild change in the pattern soon

We are about to kick this early summer heat to the curb heading into the weekend. I've seen several people already saying how we've skipped over spring and gone right to summer. I'm not sure I agree with that, given the cool weather we've had with ALL of the rain last month. In fact, high temperatures at the beginning of May were only in the 60s, which is cooler than normal.

June has started out pretty warm, but we are about to see a radical change in our weather. A cold front will arrive Saturday night into Sunday and it's going to sweep most of this humidity out of our area. Computer models continue to show the central and northern Plains going WELL below normal into the middle of the month. This will likely mean highs in the 70s with lows in the 50s. That can be very hard to come by in June.

Shifting to drier weather (week of June 10) - of course if we get rid of the humidity, our chances of getting hit with more heavy rains will drop dramatically. And that's what I would expect for next week as a complete change in the pattern takes over. Instead of the upper level winds coming from the southwest, they will come from the northwest which will help us dry out a bit more.

If you look at the rainfall forecast, you'll still see Kansas may have a shot at some showers Tuesday night, but my expectation is that they will be scattered and not as heavy as some of the rain events lately. 

We will need to watch the end of next week for things to switch around and start turning active once again. As I said last week, my forecast for June was for much of the Plains to pick up about half of the rainfall we had in May, and we could very well start to see our rain chances increasing once again in about 8-10 days. How much rain isn't known this far out, but

Tornado count - are we having an above normal year

This week hasn't been anything like last week so far (thank goodness) and although we still have more chances for rain & thunder coming our way, most of them won't be severe.

After the craziness last week, you may not be surprised to learn that across the United States, the tornado count is well above normal. Just look at the graph below. You will see that the running average (at this time in June) is roughly 800 tornadoes. When you add in the last few weeks, we have had a big uptick in the count over just the last two weeks. A very active weather pattern and a stubborn low pressure was all it took to give us that boost in the tornado activity.

I'm not 100% sure exactly how many tornadoes have happened in Kansas (the number will change based on damage surveys and new reports), but I'm thinking we are somewhere around 50 or maybe even as high as 60. We ARE passed the peak of tornado season though, which is generally around May 15-25, and once we arrive in June, our tornado days seem to spread out more.

What to watch:

We still have a weak low pressure tracking toward the Plains around Thursday. This is going to give our rain chances around the area a boost. Severe weather isn't likely, but because we continue to have some very rich humidity in place, the threat of heavy downpours will exist with several storms that develop in this area. The low will still hang around Friday, but then should move east to spare our weekend some drier weather.