August outlook

Heading into August and the weather has been dry for most of the Plains (but not all for sure). The turn around from very wet to almost nothing in the last 35-40 days has been pretty remarkable, but something most of us were afraid might happen. And after the 4 day heat wave of from two weeks ago, grass and crops are showing the stress.

Look at the number of 90° days since the beginning of June. It's not even close to what we had at this point last year. We've still had some uncomfortable days with the high humidity, but it could be so much hotter. Summer isn't over yet, of course, and August can be a hot month. Which leads me to my forecast.

Here's what is happening right now:

August will start hot, as you've probably gathered from looking at the 7 or 10 day forecast. But a shift in the pattern is coming next week and we think that's going to give our area another cool down. It may NOT be as cool as the weather we saw last week, but I do expect us to get some 80s back (if even for only 3 or 4 days) 

Temperatures aren't going to be that extreme - so we could have a decent stretch of weather throughout much of August. I DO expect things to warm up a bit heading into the second half of the month, but it should not be 100s.

Rainfall - Such a strange position we are in right now given that we haven't had anything widespread in quite awhile. I expect August will have near normal rains (certainly looking like more rain than we had in July) It's looking like we will have more chances in the coming weeks.

If we add in the first 10 days of August, there's a good chance most of the region will get some rain. It might not be the amount you are hoping for, but we at least we have something to look at moving forward.

Have a great day. Thanks for spending a few minutes reading the blog.

Rainfall Stats

In my previous post, I talked about when we might see some rain again. If you didn't read it, well, I can sum it up by just saying we have awhile to wait before decent chances of moisture get back to Kansas. The beginning of August just doesn't look that promising for rainfall.

What's interesting is just how fast the faucet gets turned off. We can all agree we had TOO much rain back in May, and even June started out really wet in most areas. But just look at the following charts. I did some research on rainfall for Dodge City, Wichita, Hutch, and Salina. All areas look about the same. Anywhere from 5-10% of the rain since May 1st has come in the last 30 days. And when it heated up to 100° in mid-July, things have dried out pretty quickly.

Dodge City stats:

Wichita stats:

Hutchinson stats:

Salina stats:

This is what one computer model continues to show today for rainfall over the next two weeks (you can click the image and make it larger).

And given the fact we expect a high pressure system to return next week and heat things up, much of the forecast rainfall will slide up and over Kansas. Aside from a stray shower or storm, the odds of decent moisture just aren't there for awhile.

I'll keep you updated. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of our somewhat mild July weather. Have a great day.

When will it rain again?

After such a wet spring and early summer, I don't think any of us thought we would be asking for rain so soon. However, after 4/5 days of 100° heat and wind, the need for moisture has returned. We aren't necessarily in drought, but if a couple more weeks pass without rainfall, we may begin to see some low end drought conditions show up in our state.

Here's the last 30 days of rainfall compared to normal:

The yellow and orange areas are DRY! And that's really much of the state. I circled areas that have had above normal precipitation, but there aren't too many. Rainfall this month of July has been very spotty.

What's ahead for rainfall?

Now - Sunday:

Rain chances DO show up later on in the weekend. Western Kansas will get the chance first, with a few showers or storms coming into the area Sunday evening/night. Other areas may get some rain into Monday, but as you can tell by the forecast amounts, this isn't looking to be anything huge.

Early - Mid August:

I just don't see any big swings in the weather pattern that would bring consistent rounds of rain and storms. So at this point, I would venture to say the next 3 weeks are likely to be below normal on rainfall. It doesn't mean you won't get a little rain here or there with a front passing through, but the chances of a 2 or 3 inch rain right now are VERY low. As disappointing as that might sound, there are some encouraging signs that temperatures won't be brutally hot all the way through August. In fact, mid to late August may end up cooling off nicely for much of the central Plains and upper Midwest. Time will surely tell.

Are we done with 100s?

Hopefully you had a great weekend, even though it was still pretty miserable at the beginning with excessive heat. But it's a very different weather story this week and one that should be enjoyable. Just check this out:

We reference dew points on TV from time to time, and it's a number that is simply a measure of how much moisture is in the air. When it's above 70 (like it was last week), it's not very pleasant to say the least.

This week, just look at the drier air coming in from the north. This is air that comes straight out of Canada, so if you've ever wondered what it might feel like farther north, well you don't even have to leave Kansas to find out.

The downside to the forecast this week is that there won't be any rain (for those who have been emailing me asking for it). The dry air that settles in this week feels good, but it also takes away our chances for getting any decent precipitation.

Are we done with 100s:
Definitely not! We will see more high heat heading into early August but a lengthy stretch of 100s is not that likely next month. The high pressure that is currently over Arizona (this week) should start moving back toward the Plains around the 31st/Aug. 1st. That will lead to some hotter weather for a few days.

However, if we look a bit farther out, there are suggestions that we will cool down again around the first weekend in August and maybe during the first full week of the month. We will see.

Rain chances are spotty at best right now. On Tuesday, I'll dive into more detail on rain chances as we move through the next couple of weeks. It doesn't look very promising at this point.

Big time changes - Update on rainfall chances

We are still on track for a big change in the weather and the pattern across the central US. This latest heat wave may have some of you panicking into thinking the rest of the summer is going to be brutal. But as I mentioned in my last update, I think this is our hottest stretch we will see maybe for the rest of the summer.

Here's what next week is looking like:

The areas hit with the heat wave this week will see a huge flip for our last full week of July. A forecast of 80° weather isn't normal for late July, which is typically some of our hottest weather of the year. 

Across the nation:

It's hot almost everywhere east of the Rockies. The exception will be the New England states where highs will be much more comfortable.

Rain chances coming this weekend:

I know some areas have dried out with the heat and wind from this week. So if you are hoping for some rain, good news is that much of the state will have chances. However, I'm not so sure this won't be just enough rain to settle the dust in spots. The front is coming through fairly quickly, and if it moves through during the night (Saturday night), the timing may not be so favorable for rain. Models are hinting at some .25-.50" amounts, but there could be a few pockets where it's a bit heavier.

Temperatures by Sunday: It now looks like all of Kansas will have cooled off by the end of the weekend. So enjoy it, because 70s and 80s in late July is almost unimaginable. And to go along with it, LOWER HUMIDITY!! Should be really nice. And it will be that way for almost ALL of next week. 

Hottest week for the rest of summer?

Just beyond the half way point of July and this could very well be the hottest week so far this summer AND likely the rest of summer. It feels weird saying that, but in watching the longer range computer models, all of them have been hinting at cooler weather to finish off July and start August.

Chances of getting to 100°: High

Given the setup, we should be able to hit the century mark this week. The heat dome will slide across Oklahoma and southeast Kansas mid-late week. According to the averages, this is the hottest time of the year and it shouldn't be a huge surprise that we are looking at such hot weather. The average 1st 100 for most areas is in the beginning of July. 

Changes next week:

The high pressure system should shift back to the west and allow for the cooler air to slip out of the northern Plains. Even better, it looks like this might be something that will be around for more than just one day. 

Rain chances: They end up somewhere between slim and none for the remainder of this week, but since the front coming Sunday evening/Monday is quite strong, we will stand a chance for storms either late weekend or the beginning of next week.

Early look into August:

It's not very clear yet if August will have above normal rainfall or not, but over the last few weeks, the early signals on temperatures point toward slightly cooler than one might expect. Given what "normal" is in August, I'm expecting a month with mostly 80s and lower 90s. We certainly aren't going to have a month of fall temperatures, but I also wanted you to know we aren't going to be baking in continuous 100 degree weather either. As soon as we can find some clarity on what might happen with precipitation, I'll pass it along.

Next rain chances... and Barry flooding

Are we really needing rain? That's likely still a touchy subject for some as we are still cleaning up after a rough spring full of flooding and damaging storms. But emails and tweets are coming in from some asking for rain. So I'll try to address when that next chance might be.

Barry's latest track is looking like this throughout the weekend:

The trouble here won't necessarily be the winds with the storm, it's the heavy rains that will fall right along the Mississippi River. Just look at the side by side comparison from near St Louis. One image is from June of 2018, while the other was taken as recently as May. Water levels are still very high. (you can click on any image to make it larger)

 June 2018

May 2019

If you ARE hoping for rain, the tough part of this forecast is that Barry will trap much of the Gulf of Mexico moisture south and east of the area. So it's going to be next to impossible to get anything to develop here. We also don't have any strong fronts coming to the area, which would be the best way to develop some storms in July. I can only find two nights next week where we might have a few spotty storm chances (it would be a long shot at best). One chance would come Monday night or early Tuesday, and then again Wednesday night. We shall see.

If you are on the other side and hope it stays dry awhile longer, you'll be happy to see the forecast for the next 10 days. Temperatures at the end of the week will likely be right around 100 across the Plains. It's going to be HOT!!

Have a nice weekend.

Eyes on potential Barry & a mini heat wave developing

All of the attention will be on a developing tropical system (which will be named Barry) as it strengthens today (Thursday). Anytime a storm gets into the Gulf, there is a chance it could impact Kansas weather either directly or indirectly.

Barry could take a very similar path that Hurricane Isaac took in 2012. Look at the similarities of the two storms.

In 2015, Bill hit the Gulf coast (much farther west than Barry will do), but eventually moved through Oklahoma and just narrowly grazed southeast parts of Kansas.

So Gulf storms are always interesting to watch from a Kansas perspective given the increased chance they could impact our weather. Even though most of them never make it to our state, they can have indirect impacts by causing other weather features to stall in the jet stream (what meteorologists sometimes refer to as "blocking")

Potential mini heat wave next week:

Regardless of what becomes of Barry, several forecast maps are showing an expansion of the heat across the Plains in the second half of next week. If you read the blog from time to time, you've heard me say that our chances of having major heat waves are VERY low. And I still believe that. This isn't going to be a long string of 100s for Kansas, but we might see a few triple digit days if this high pressure camps out right over us.

Could tropical weather impact Kansas?

Kansas weather is about to enter what I might call "auto pilot" stage. Thunderstorm chances drop off while temperatures change just a little bit each and every day. We should have a stretch of rather uneventful weather across the Plains. One thing you'll notice by Thursday is that the humidity will drop down as the temperatures come down just a bit.

An expanding area of high pressure will show up across the Plains and that should lead to several sunny and quiet days. This high pressure will likely be around through the weekend.

Could a tropical system impact Kansas soon? Well, let's take a look. Forecast models are suggesting a low pressure will develop over the Gulf of Mexico later this week. If this system develops, look where it will be over the weekend.

It could drift west and impact Texas with potential heavy rainfall and maybe some flooding. However, will the leftover system keeping moving west or will it turn to the northwest? That's what we won't know until we know if there will even be a storm. One computer model has the system moving into Kansas next week, which would likely lead to rain chances and cooler temperatures.

If the system tracks farther west into Texas, it might lessen the impact for Kansas. But there's so much uncertainty this many days out, especially when the storm isn't even a reality right now.

Clear skies = good star/planet watching:
Jupiter is still very visible in the south/southeast and will team up with the full moon this weekend.