New Years Storm - might be close to some records

It is a year most of us can't wait to send off into the dustbin of history, but before we do we have another storm to watch. This is one that will have a decent impact on the area and could set some records for the start of 2021. Most big winter storms that have a great deal of moisture to work with come from the 4 Corners area. 

This one is coming straight up from the south. It was in Texas Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Heavier snows have avoided Wichita and much of south central Kansas over the last several years. You can come up with your own definition of a "heavy" snow because there isn't one for meteorology. However, the last 4" snow in a 24 hour time frame (officially) for Wichita was nearly six years ago. Can you believe that? 

Ice comes first:  

While probably NOT a major ice storm for the area, we think some freezing rain and sleet will fall in south central and eastern Kansas to start the storm. Heaviest ice accumulations will likely happen in eastern Kansas where some .5" amounts look likely. If most of this ends up as sleet, we will be in better shape. We don't want it all to be freezing rain, but the warm air aloft is something we have to overcome first. 

Snow into early Friday:

Heaviest snow will take place from 5 am until about noon, then it tapers off from southwest to northeast quickly. This snow should have high moisture content, so it's probably going to pile up fairly quickly. Some snow may come down at 1" per hour. We could threaten the New Year's Day snow record, which for Wichita only happens to be 4.2" (certainly attainable from this storm)

Wind:  

While I don't expect enough wind to cause a blizzard, there will be blowing snow Friday morning. I think wind around 15 or 20 mph will be common where the snow is falling, so some of it may drift. What I don't think will happen is wind causing power outages because of some ice accumulation, but it is something to have in the back of your mind. 

Arctic air is still shut off for now, so although kinda cold to start 2021, it could be so much colder. That might be coming in a matter of weeks. By the way, I'll be posting a January outlook soon. 

Last big storm of 2020 is coming

I started seeing wild snowfall forecasts yesterday on social media - always drives me crazy when I see them because of the buzz that it creates (and panic for others). And 99% of the time, they are wrong and not even worth spending a second of your time looking at. 

What we do know is there will be a storm forming and moving toward the Plains in our final days the year. Why should we expect anything less with the absurd nature of 2020, right? The models do agree there will be a storm, and potentially a higher impact storm for some areas. But the usual suspects of track, intensity, and duration are still the limiting factors as to why we can't nail something down this far out. Recent trends in the models continue to shift the storm NORTH, so I'm beginning to think most of what we will get in Kansas will probably be rain.

There have already been some big snows in Kansas (two of them in fact across southwest Kansas with 8-10"+). Other areas just aren't getting anything at all. Will that continue next week? 

Tuesday:

We will be cloudy with a good chance of both rain and snow developing throughout the day. But how much cold air is still available to make snow? That's really the sticking point here. If south winds push the cold air away BEFORE the storm arrives, which has been the trend lately, much of the snow will end up again in western Kansas and up in Nebraska

Here's 6 PM Tuesday:

I'm not saying we won't have any snow next week, but it's looking like a wintry mix, turning to rain, then a little snow heading into Wednesday.

Wednesday:

I'm thinking the storm will be well wrapped up over Kansas or Missouri at this time, putting Kansas in a position to mainly be getting snow. And there will be wind with the storm, so blowing and drifting is a concern for some areas as well.

Thursday:

Unless the storm completely slows down, it should be moving out by New Years Eve. 

We hope you have a Merry Christmas and we will be here to track the storm for you next week.

First Arctic blast - potential storm on the horizon

If you have a great memory, you'll recall the bitter cold and snow that hit Kansas right before Halloween. There was ice and snow on pumpkins and we ended up with our first hard freeze. You could call that "Arctic blast" number one, but since it wasn't officially winter, we will refer to the big drop in temperatures coming midweek as the first real blast. 

If we look to Canada, the Arctic air is really gathering up and it is headed south, but there isn't that much snow on the ground between Kansas and the Canadian border, so that air will warm up as it dives south. The most recent snow cover map (below) shows a big gap over the Dakotas and Nebraska. Even the areas in Kansas that have had snow, much of it has melted. 

Look how different the following maps look and they are separated by just 48 hours. The heart of the cold hits fast (Wednesday)

and 2 days later (on Christmas) we are already warming back to the 50s. 

 

Things are looking interesting for next week (and why shouldn't they be to cap off this unusual year). It looks like we will have a fair amount of cold air hanging around the Plains and that may set us up for some snow chances around Tuesday/Wednesday. Accumulations are possible, so if you are looking at next week for after Christmas travel, heads up. 

Active pattern continues - White Christmas this year?

An active weather pattern will keep us on guard down the stretch and right into Christmas week. The weekend storm still has potential of producing some nice snowfall across mainly southern Kansas. Computer models in recent days have really come around to the idea of 2-4 inches for southwest and parts of south central Kansas, but there will be a few isolated spots that might get just a bit more. Northern Oklahoma may get the most with a few 6 inch amounts.

What comes next week? Looks like another snow chance Tuesday, but most likely NOT a major winter system here either. This will be another fast moving storm that offers up chances for snow, but given the lack of bitter cold, whatever we get will likely be melting soon after late in the week.

Chances of a White Christmas in any given year for Kansas are usually around 10%. So, the odds are definitely not in our favor to have snow on the ground (or falling) on Christmas Day. In search of the last time we had snow for Christmas? It was just three years ago in Goodland, but the last one for Wichita was 2013. 

Next few weeks: The pattern continues to look very active, so I would say of any recent year, we still have a pretty good chance of something happening. Bitter cold temperatures are NOT looking to arrive in time for the holiday, so our snow will have to fall either Christmas Eve or Christmas Day, or we run the risk of it melting too soon. The temperature map shown below shows above average temperatures for Christmas week.

The pattern should favor more low pressure systems tracking in from the Rockies, and there could be a couple of storms to watch just before Christmas.

Weekend storm shows better potential

After some remarkable warmth in the Plains this week, ingredients are still coming together for a rather significant change in just a matter of days. But will this storm provide much in the way of rain and snow? Computer models at the start of the week weren't all that encouraging, but we are starting to see a shift toward more rain and more snow. However, it still doesn't look like a major winter system.  

Thursday:

 

Still looks dry during the day, although the clouds will be gradually taking over our sky in the afternoon. I don't think we will see much (if any) precipitation until midnight, and it could even be later than that. And it's looking like the storm may separate into a couple different pieces. Look at the models Friday afternoon (image below). You see one area over Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, while a larger area of snow is waiting back to the south and west.

 

 

Friday morning:

6am:

It will already be MUCH colder, but where is it going to be cold enough for snow? That's usually the million dollar question going into an event like this and we will nail it down soon. I'm expecting that areas west of a Pratt to Russell line are going to have a good chance of mainly snow. Farther east, its more likely to be mainly rain. The image below is for early Friday afternoon. The eastern two-thirds will likely still be mainly rain with a few snowflakes mixed in.

Friday evening:

5pm

We will be waiting for the second piece of the storm to move in, and when it gets here, almost all of Kansas will be cold enough for snow. The trends we are seeing is that we may be in for more snowfall Friday night-Saturday, which could leave some accumulation in much of the state. 

Saturday:

This could be a day with light snow and cold temperatures. By this time, the rain/snow line should be well east of Kansas, so what we'd be getting will be all snow. However, will it snow long enough to accumulate? Will there be enough moisture for anything more than flurries? Confidence IS growing there will be accumulations for most of the state, but it still looks rather light. I'll start putting up some numbers (both on air and here) Thursday/Friday.

This is just one in a series of storms trying to move our way. In fact, leading right up to Christmas, there will be more systems pushing this way. Does it translate to a White Christmas? It is still possible, but we are going to need access to more cold air, which has been a struggle lately. 

You won't want to miss these & a late week storm on the move

Some of you are already keying in on the two planets closing the gap in the southwestern sky during the evening hours. They will continue to get closer and closer until December 21st when they will be just .1° apart (which is about the width of a toothpick at arms length) They haven't appeared this close together since 1623, and the next extra close Jupiter/Saturn conjunction won't be matched again until 2080.

We also have the Geminid meteor shower that is going to peak in the upcoming weekend. Sunday night (the 13th), there could be as many as 50-60 meteors per hour if you can find a spot away from any kind of light pollution. This could be an extra special show given that the moon won't be a factor and you can start looking as early as 8 or 9 p.m. (not the 2 or 3 a.m. wake up calls)

Change WITH moisture coming late week:

This is NOT likely to be much of a storm for the Plains, but we do have a chance of some light rain and some light snow heading into early Friday. The chances for light rain or snow could very well carry over into Saturday too, but even if it does, we still don't expect the amounts to be all that spectacular. In most cases, I would expect up to about .25". It may not do much more than erase the fire danger for a couple of days. The image below is through Friday evening, but we could get just a little bit more come Saturday. So check back for an update as we get closer.  

Colder weather returns:

Most of us will be back to the 30s and low 40s for afternoon temperatures Friday, so basically half the warmth that we will have enjoyed just a few days prior. Although it will be much chillier, there's still no connection to the Arctic, so it's not going to be anything really out of the ordinary. 

Here comes the December heat wave - before the deep freeze

December is off to an active start with the latest storm now departing the area and leaving some whopping snow behind in Oklahoma and southern Kansas. This was definitely the kind of snow to help the winter wheat with it containing some nice moisture. Just look at some of the amounts below:

December is (on average) the snowiest month out of the year for the Wichita area and we have a head start. Northwest Kansas, including Goodland, did have some snow but it was minimal. 

What's coming next is a rather impressive warm spell for the Plains and Rockies. It's interesting in that there will be some storms out there to watch (one settling into Baja California and perhaps another up around the Great Lakes), but Kansas won't see much of an influence for now. That will leave us with our first full week of December being above normal and dry!

However, we are about to see the bitter cold of Canada and the Arctic unleash as we approach mid to late December. We have been keying in with the Arctic Oscillation dropping negative now for several days on several different model runs. And the longer range indicators are suggesting we trend back to near or below normal temperatures as we move toward the second half of December. So be prepared to trade in next weeks 60s for something much colder soon.

As for rain and snow chances - I still think we will be in a position to have some active weather through mid to late December. Some of the computer models are suggesting more storms will develop and move in from the Rockies, which will make for an interesting forecast leading up to Christmas. The hardest part with some of this active weather is that it may develop or just intensify right in our backyard (like the most recent storm), and that will give us some challenges to consider for December week 2 and 3. 

Challenges of snow forecasting this week

 Hope you had a terrific Thanksgiving week. We are about to begin the month of December with a chance for some snow, HOWEVER, temperatures aren't going to be all that rough on us just yet. 

Snow forecast challenges ahead:

The hardest thing to do ahead of a winter system is pin down where the heaviest accumulations of snow will fall. Every storm presents its own unique challenges, and this one will be no different. The last 4 or 5 days, one model showed snow while another model had nothing at all. We are finally seeing some agreement that snow WILL setup in the Plains, but determining where the storm will wobble around is tough.

Here's what one model shows on accumulation for Wednesday/Thursday:

As you can see, it focuses more of the snow central and east. The amounts aren't huge, and at this time, I would doubt this storm would have anything record setting with it anyway. But what we want to take away from this is where the snow accumulations might be.

Another model has this:

Suggests that much of the snow will end up in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Similarities between the two models are that the amounts of snow are up to about 5 inches but not much more. That is still a pretty good snow for the Plains and given the temperatures, would likely have some good moisture content to it. This is a storm where 10 inches of snow would equal about 1" of liquid precipitation. However, nobody is expected to come close to 10".

No Arctic air invasion! 

Don't like winter temperatures? This midweek system will have no Arctic connection. It does get cold enough to snow, but the air that will be in the Plains show no connection to the bitterly cold areas of Canada or the Northwest Territories. What does that mean? It should mean a quick rebound in afternoon highs at the end of the week. Just look at the map for Thursday afternoon. Areas north of Kansas will actually be a bit warmer, so we should warm and melt the snow quickly by Friday and the weekend.

Winter Forecast 2020-21

I never know if you'll be excited when you read this or disappointed (maybe that's with every storm we discuss here), but we have released our winter forecast. This has been a record year for lack of tornados in Kansas, but in the Atlantic basin, a record number of hurricanes and tropical storms. A total of 30 named storms - almost made it halfway through the Greek alphabet.

So what does all of this mean for the winter? There are always several challenges when coming up with these predictions, but here are some things we are taking into consideration.

La Nina: 

Located in the Pacific, near the Equator, this is where the water temperatures are colder than average. This change in the water temperatures does have an influence on the patterns across the United States. Look at the latest image above - shows the colder water that has built up along the equator (as indicated in the blue and even purple colors) We know that La Nina summers are notoriously hot and dry for Kansas - so let's hope this weakens before summer 2021. Winters are more of a wildcard for the Plains. Some La Nina winters are quite cold, but others are near normal. Most recent La Nina winters (2017-18, 2010-11, 2011-12) had near to above normal snow and several cold outbreaks. That's strongly considered in this prediction. La Nina is forecast to stay through spring of 2021. 

What kind of weather pattern normally sets up in La Nina? Take a look:

It will remain strong enough to be a contributor to our weather patterns in the months ahead. Colder than normal weather is likely in the northern Plains, with expanding drought potential across the southern states. Wet weather is typical near the Great Lakes in a La Nina setup. 

Arctic Oscillation: 

During the month of October, it dipped into the negative, but then we saw it go positive in November (resulting in a milder month). It's not uncommon at all to see these wild swings, but when it dips negative, we should prepare for our big cold snaps. It's likely going to be near neutral into the first half of December, so it will be chilly, but not crazy cold. Where it might go negative is late January and February, so that would be when I'd expect the strongest Arctic outbreaks. 

Patterns: Given the La Nina influence, the jet stream winds will likely come down over the northern Rockies and right over the central Plains. That could mean a BIG temperature contrast from east to west. And if the jet shifts by a hundred miles or so, could be the difference between Arctic cold and somewhat milder weather.

However, I do expect a few decent storms to develop over the Rockies and then push into the Plains. We saw this in late October and most recently with the storm that dropped mainly rain (and a little bit of snow in central Kansas). Classic, major winter storms come in from the desert Southwest, but I think the storms this winter will form closer to Kansas. That will be something to watch as we continue on into winter. 

Summary: 

I think we should have near normal snowfall this winter around much of Kansas. I don't think the drought conditions are going to improve; that's very hard to do in the heart of winter. But maybe the drought won't get any worse if we get some decent snows periodically throughout winter. We've already had some icy weather (back before Halloween), and my concern is that may show up again this winter. If the jet stream stays in more of a northwesterly pattern, we might escape the threat. 

I'm also expecting some of our coldest weather to arrive in February this winter. There will be plenty of chilly days before that, but that might end up being our coldest month this winter. January may have some surprising warmth for the Plains.