Last big storm of 2020 is coming

I started seeing wild snowfall forecasts yesterday on social media - always drives me crazy when I see them because of the buzz that it creates (and panic for others). And 99% of the time, they are wrong and not even worth spending a second of your time looking at. 

What we do know is there will be a storm forming and moving toward the Plains in our final days the year. Why should we expect anything less with the absurd nature of 2020, right? The models do agree there will be a storm, and potentially a higher impact storm for some areas. But the usual suspects of track, intensity, and duration are still the limiting factors as to why we can't nail something down this far out. Recent trends in the models continue to shift the storm NORTH, so I'm beginning to think most of what we will get in Kansas will probably be rain.

There have already been some big snows in Kansas (two of them in fact across southwest Kansas with 8-10"+). Other areas just aren't getting anything at all. Will that continue next week? 

Tuesday:

We will be cloudy with a good chance of both rain and snow developing throughout the day. But how much cold air is still available to make snow? That's really the sticking point here. If south winds push the cold air away BEFORE the storm arrives, which has been the trend lately, much of the snow will end up again in western Kansas and up in Nebraska

Here's 6 PM Tuesday:

I'm not saying we won't have any snow next week, but it's looking like a wintry mix, turning to rain, then a little snow heading into Wednesday.

Wednesday:

I'm thinking the storm will be well wrapped up over Kansas or Missouri at this time, putting Kansas in a position to mainly be getting snow. And there will be wind with the storm, so blowing and drifting is a concern for some areas as well.

Thursday:

Unless the storm completely slows down, it should be moving out by New Years Eve. 

We hope you have a Merry Christmas and we will be here to track the storm for you next week.