January is knocking with cold, rain, and snow chances

The warmer weather may have some of you already thinking about spring, but we are days from a reality check. And it may come with some rain and snow.

There won't be any record high temperatures on Tuesday or Wednesday (those are mostly around 70°) and nobody is likely to be that warm. But just look at this map for the first week of January 2020. 

Much of the country is WAY above normal. The northern Plains are some of the warmest spots in the first week of this new year. I do expect the map to change significantly in the next 10 days as bitter cold pushes back into the northern US and begins advancing south.

Be on the lookout for extreme fire danger on Wednesday. The wind gusts will easily exceed 30 mph and temperatures continue to be warm. Even though we had some nice rainfall about a week and a half ago, fuels above the ground will easily ignite. 

When will it all change:

A cold front pushes in Thursday, which starts the downward trend. It won't be THAT big of a change initially, as we are still forecasting 50s Thursday afternoon. And look where the first batch of moisture goes Thursday evening - to the east.

A developing storm is forecast to move into the Plains Friday/Saturday. At this time, this will likely be a LOW impact system for Kansas, with only light snow chances and most of the heavier rain missing to the east.

There will still likely be some changes to the forecast track and impact, but models are coming into alignment that the biggest deal for Kansas will be the MUCH colder air. Severe storms are going to be a possibility from Texas up through Arkansas by Friday evening.

Potential Rain Amounts: Big moisture goes east with 2-4" rains likely in Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Illinois, etc. Much of Kansas will see light snow (that melts down to under a .25") and rainfall in south central Kansas will likely be .25" or less too.

Arctic air WATCH:

We've been sounding this alarm for quite some time - alerting you to a bigger change that looks to setup for the second half of January. We will see how much of the cold air pushes into Kansas, but the next several weeks look much chillier for our area.