April outlook - severe weather may ramp up soon

This very unusual time we are living in continues, but I hope that you are staying safe and healthy. Let's hope the peak of this truly does happen here soon so we can try and find some kind of normalcy again. Unfortunately, it looks like April is another "stay at home" month.

April is traditionally one of two "peak" months for severe storms across Kansas. Of course, they can happen any time of the year, but we expect severe storms and tornadoes to ramp up in the coming weeks. There are signs of an active pattern continuing throughout the Plains, so even though we've seen most of the destructive weather go around us thus far, our chances may increase very soon. 

Here's the pattern we are looking at for the first few weeks of April:

Anytime we have a persistent low pressure (or trough for those weather enthusiasts) in the west, it does raise concerns for severe weather setups. The finer details of where, when, and magnitude aren't really known until just days before, but looking at the next 2-3 weeks, we will continue to have several chances of thunderstorms and a risk for stronger storms. It may not necessarily be in Kansas, but the Plains states will have to be on the lookout.

April starts with normal high temperatures in the 60s, but that jumps into the 70s by the end of the month. April is also NOT traditionally our wettest month of the year, but we are expected to get more than our fair share of rain in the next 30 days (this includes western Kansas too). So look for April to be wetter than normal.

Temperatures:

It will be mild month, but the overall average may be "cooler" than normal in Kansas. Remember, where the warmer temperatures to the south meet the cooler weather across the north, that is where the more intense storms will fire up. It could be right over Kansas, and it could be just south of us too. We will monitor that in the coming weeks.

What's that bright start in the west during the evening?

That is Venus!

Have a great day and thanks for stopping by to read up on Kansas weather. 

More unsettled weather - a few severe chances

Here's hoping you are healthy and enjoying some of this spring weather. The 80° weather some of us had on Wednesday wasn't enough to set records, but it sure felt good and helped to dry things out a bit. Normal highs don't get to 80 until late May, so we were in bonus territory for sure.

More rain chances on the way - starting with Thursday night. These showers and storms will mainly be focused over the eastern 1/3 of Kansas and should move toward Missouri by daybreak Friday. This doesn't look widespread and chances for severe weather are quite low.

Friday - a more significant feature will be coming through the Plains Friday evening and early Saturday. Severe weather chances (albeit isolated) will setup mainly east of I-135 and in particular, southeast of the Turnpike. Main threat here will be some quarter size hail and once the storms develop, they will move northeast.

Another area of rain to watch will come into northwest Kansas Friday night AND... some of the rain will mix with snow too. That's right, we are going to end March with a snow chance for the northwest. I don't expect any accumulations in Kansas, but there will be some collecting on grass and pavement in northeast Colorado and western Nebraska. It's a good thing this storm doesn't have more cold air with it or we'd have an all out blizzard forming across northern Kansas and Nebraska this weekend.

WINDY - Saturday:

Plan to anchor down because wind gusts from the west or northwest are going to be REALLY strong, especially across western Kansas. Some gusts might approach 45 or 50 mph.

More active weather early next week - rain chances on the way:

This is looking to be a widespread system that will soak many areas. The moisture starts to push up from the south by late Monday morning and then continue east into Monday evening. I would expect at least .50" from this storm, and many areas will probably get a little more. It should start Monday late morning and continue into Monday night.

I'm working on an outlook for April. I'll post that on Monday. Early signs are pointing toward a cooler than normal month. Have a good day.

Couple more rain chances and a big warm up soon

I hope everyone is safe and well heading into the weekend. This is such an odd world we are in right now ... my lack of blogging this week was simply due to managing some other very important issues.

We've just wrapped up a very cloudy and dismal stretch of weather and now we are capping it off with 20° below normal temperatures. A hard freeze will take place again heading into Saturday morning. We have anticipated some colder weather in mid-March and now it has finally decided to show up. It won't hang around for very long and might be the last of the 20s for some of us.

Rainfall (compared to normal) for March:

This map shows much of Kansas is right on target for moisture in March. We are above normal in the eastern 1/3 of Kansas. You can use the legend on the right side to see what the colors represent, but much of eastern Kansas is 1-2" above normal.

Next chances coming this weekend - NOT a big storm:

This will be a fast moving system coming from the Pacific. It's going to stir up several hours of very light showery type of weather. It starts after dark Saturday night and will continue through the first part of the day Sunday. I don't even think there will be thunder with any of this. Just light rains. Generally speaking, amounts should come in under .30" for the area.

Monday night - another chance

This is yet another in a series of systems that will come in from the west. It's cruising through pretty quickly, so that should keep us from getting big rains. I'm expecting Monday evening and into the night to develop some showers AND storms, but severe weather chances are very low. And this will track away from Kansas by early Tuesday. So it's not around for more than 12-18 hours. Rain amounts with this feature might be in the .25-.50".

Forecast rainfall - again, don't focus on exact amounts but understand where most of the rain should go over the next 3-4 days:

Big warm up coming next week! Looks like by midweek we will have temperatures pushing 80° in the Plains. Nothing will make that wheat grow faster than some weather like that. Should be really nice heading into Tuesday and Wednesday.

Have a great weekend - I appreciate you spending a few minutes here.

How much more rain and how likely for severe storms

Hope everyone had a great weekend. As we are all in a bit of a lock down right now, wanted to update you on how much more rain is coming this way and what our chances for severe storms look like this week.

Next round - Tuesday night/early Wed:

There will be thunderstorms with this batch of rain, but unlikely that we will have damaging hail and high winds. As we've seen recently, most of the rainfall will end up in central and eastern Kansas as the moisture moves from southwest to northeast. I'm expecting it could start just after dark Tuesday in the southwest and then start pushing on to the northeast.

Wednesday night/early Thursday:
This rain SHOULDN'T be as heavy as what we will get Tuesday night. However, it is more rain in places that need time to dry out.

Rainfall amounts could end up looking like this by Thursday afternoon:

Western Kansas could get up to a third of an inch (.3"), but amounts east of a Pratt to Russell line will be closer to an inch. We are already having one of the top 5 wettest starts to the year in south central Kansas and this will only push that higher.

Much colder air will return late in the week - 

It's looking as if a pretty chilly blast of air will set in by Friday and continue through Saturday. Highs are going to be 10-15° below normal, BUT - the sunshine will be around to cap off the week. And wouldn't you know, it will be our first weekend in spring (but still feeling like winter)

Rain, snow, thunder - this pattern can't be overlooked

There's a great deal of chaos right now in the news with the coronavirus. I'm not going to lie, Wednesday at work had to be one of the strangest days I've ever had during my time at KWCH. It is not very often that we have so much weather coming our way and we have to take a backseat to a virus. It's so strange to see so many things getting cancelled.

Multiple waves of weather coming - A huge low in the western US is going to be extremely slow to move, which puts us in a spot to have a week of cloudy, wet, cool weather.

Round #1 - Friday/Saturday:

This will spread in from the southwest and as it encounters colder air, we are right back to winter. There will be several areas getting a rain/snow mix to start, and then by Saturday morning, it might warm up just enough to force the rain/snow line back north a bit. Most temperatures (even where it snows) should be above freezing, so some of the snow will initially melt and roads likely wet and/or slushy.

Rain and snow continues into Saturday morning, but you will see it taper off by mid-morning from west to east. We WILL still have drizzle in the afternoon, but measurable rains should be over.

Wave #2: Monday - this doesn't look that heavy, but I think there will be some measurable rainfall from it. It's not much of a storm, but rather a weak disturbance that will pass through and stir up some some shower. My expectation is that rainfall will be less than .25" with this chance, and much of the rain will be focused over the eastern half of Kansas.

Wave #3: Wednesday/Thursday - the brunt of the western storm should come through mid-late week. When this happens, we are likely to see another round of some widespread rain (which could be heavy in spots). It's early to say how much rain, but confidence is growing that it could be another inch of moisture.

Adding up all of the rain and melting the snow over the next week, this is probably not good news for parts of Kansas. However, drought in western Kansas will suffer a beating given this kind of pattern.

A return to sunshine SHOULD happen by next Friday. So prepare for a week of cloudy weather. Oh boy!

Trifecta of planets happening next week (if there are ANY breaks in the clouds):

(March 17-19) there will be three planets visible in the early morning sky. It's not very often you get three of them lined up like this and in such close proximity. Jupiter will be the brightest of them all, but you'll still be able to see Saturn and Mars - IF we have any clearing, which isn't that likely.

Wild weather is loading up for the Plains

Thanks for spending a few minutes reading the blog and checking in on what is shaping up to be a busy stretch of weather the next couple of weeks. We are likely to see more rain, more cold, more snow, and some hints of thunderstorms happening within the next 8-10 days (if you decide to stop reading now, I'll understand). The thunderstorm chance is a bit more questionable, but we are feeling confident on everything else. Spring breakers staying in Kansas next week might be wishing they were somewhere warm and sunny.

Next chance for rain (very early Wednesday):

This is a glancing shot of some showers and thunderstorms into early Wednesday. Severe weather isn't expected and they should be long gone before the sun comes up Wednesday. Highest chances will mainly be for areas east of I-135.

Huge system coming into the southwest late week:

The low pressure system coming into Arizona and New Mexico late week is one to watch. This could be another coast-to-coast system with rain AND snow chances as it crosses the Plains. A major March storm - probably not, but it will be a widespread chance of moisture and I know there are many areas that don't need it right now. Western Kansas is still in drought and I am certain there are areas that would appreciate any rain or snow. The snapshot below is early Saturday when some areas will be seeing snow (especially farther north)

Next week - several periods of rain and/or snow coming this way:

I'm a little concerned about repeated rounds of wet weather coming through the Plains. In the image above, I'm showing you the upper level jet stream that highlights a HUGE low pressure hanging out in the western US. If this actually happens, we'd be setup for several rain chances and very little opportunity to dry things out. This kind of setup in May would be a very significant severe weather episode and it can happen in March too, but I think we will be just too cool next week for any widespread concerns of severe storms (at least around Kansas).

There could be a stalled front in our area too, which will only help to develop more rain. I haven't quite figured out which days next week will have the best chances, but they could go all week long. And by the time we get to end of the week, some areas will have another 2-4 inches of rain from south central Kansas on to the east. Even farther west, it looks pretty wet (some of this will be in the form of snow) I'll keep you update when I get a better handle on timing.

Hope you have a terrific day

Rainfall amounts + more chances looming

Hope you had a great weekend. The wind was a nuisance for most of us, but it won't be quite as bad as we go throughout this week. It won't exactly be calm winds, but gusts will be closer to 30 rather than 50 like some had on Sunday.

Rainfall amounts look like this (ending at 7 am Monday):

Heaviest amounts were generally along and east of I-135.

Smith Center: 0.23"

Next close call for some rain - early Wednesday:

This is a front that will pass through quickly. A couple of showers may get stirred up along and east of I-135 once again. Amounts should be under .10" (if you get anything at all)

A more substantial system could impact the area at the end of the week:

Unlikely to be a major storm - but a system that will spend most of the week out by California will begin to push through Friday night/early Saturday. This will run into just enough cold air that a rain snow mix will present itself to Kansas Friday night. At this time, I'd say 70% of what we get in our area will be rain, but farther north, some snow is expected. It's a little early to make a call on amounts, but even if it collects in grassy areas, it will be history Saturday with south winds and warming temperatures.

Have a great day.

Is it safe to start your spring garden?

Over the next 10 days, our temperatures will likely remain above normal and some of us won't even dip below freezing during the night. My suspicion is that some will look at a 10 day forecast (and because we are in March now) think that winter is history. Spring does begin in less than 2 weeks.

However, as we pointed out last week in the March outlook, another surge of colder weather is expected during the second half of the month. This is now showing up on the models.

Right around St Patrick's Day, we could be tracking another shot of much chillier air. How long it will hang around isn't clear, but if you get overly ambitious, a few cold nights may get you in trouble. So be patient because March is notorious for throwing us a curve ball and I do expect more nights where we will drop into the 20s.

The average last spring frost/freeze isn't until April anyway, so more sub-freezing temperatures wouldn't be out-of-line. 

I'm also still anticipating a more active stretch coming up for the second half of March. We've had some rather tranquil weather to start the month (in Kansas anyway), but I expect that will begin to change soon. And a couple of storms could be in the works around or just after St. Patrick's Day, so our chances for more moisture look to be increasing on a little larger scale coming up in the next 2-3 weeks. Stay tuned.

Sunday night/early Monday rain:
Still not expected to be a significant amount of moisture, but up to .25" for some areas (mainly east), and the rain should be gone by mid-morning Monday. None of this will be snow though - too warm for that.

Have a great weekend - watch out for the wind!

Next rain chance & how much

We've just had some incredible weather this week for early March. Less wind, warmer temperatures, sunshine - I think that's what most of you were requesting, right?

Next rain chance - It should be coming in Sunday. We've seen some timing differences among the models but it still looks like Sunday late afternoon - Monday morning will be the main time slot for moisture.

We are confident in our prediction of rain because look at the stream of Gulf of Mexico moisture moving northward. All of the wind that we see this coming weekend will carry the higher humidity north. That's what will run into the front Sunday evening to set us up for rain.

Timing: I wouldn't be surprised to see some showers skirt across central and eastern Kansas mid-afternoon Sunday. They would be rather light and scattered (but this is the richer humidity surging north).

Best chances come Sunday night (after sunset) - the front should be on the move and triggering more rain as it moves along. Areas north of I-70 will have a solid chance of showers, while farther south, areas of rain develop Monday morning.

How much? This isn't going to come close to some of the recent events we've had (referring to the big 2-3 inch rain we had late in February), but we will see some .25-.50" amounts. Most of the rain will be well east of us by early Monday afternoon. Highest totals will be in northern Kansas, and east of I-135. Western Kansas will end up on the short end of the deal, and southwest Kansas may not see much at all.

I'm still expecting the second half of March to be active - so if you get missed by the upcoming rain, don't worry.