New Years Storm - might be close to some records

It is a year most of us can't wait to send off into the dustbin of history, but before we do we have another storm to watch. This is one that will have a decent impact on the area and could set some records for the start of 2021. Most big winter storms that have a great deal of moisture to work with come from the 4 Corners area. 

This one is coming straight up from the south. It was in Texas Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Heavier snows have avoided Wichita and much of south central Kansas over the last several years. You can come up with your own definition of a "heavy" snow because there isn't one for meteorology. However, the last 4" snow in a 24 hour time frame (officially) for Wichita was nearly six years ago. Can you believe that? 

Ice comes first:  

While probably NOT a major ice storm for the area, we think some freezing rain and sleet will fall in south central and eastern Kansas to start the storm. Heaviest ice accumulations will likely happen in eastern Kansas where some .5" amounts look likely. If most of this ends up as sleet, we will be in better shape. We don't want it all to be freezing rain, but the warm air aloft is something we have to overcome first. 

Snow into early Friday:

Heaviest snow will take place from 5 am until about noon, then it tapers off from southwest to northeast quickly. This snow should have high moisture content, so it's probably going to pile up fairly quickly. Some snow may come down at 1" per hour. We could threaten the New Year's Day snow record, which for Wichita only happens to be 4.2" (certainly attainable from this storm)

Wind:  

While I don't expect enough wind to cause a blizzard, there will be blowing snow Friday morning. I think wind around 15 or 20 mph will be common where the snow is falling, so some of it may drift. What I don't think will happen is wind causing power outages because of some ice accumulation, but it is something to have in the back of your mind. 

Arctic air is still shut off for now, so although kinda cold to start 2021, it could be so much colder. That might be coming in a matter of weeks. By the way, I'll be posting a January outlook soon. 

Last big storm of 2020 is coming

I started seeing wild snowfall forecasts yesterday on social media - always drives me crazy when I see them because of the buzz that it creates (and panic for others). And 99% of the time, they are wrong and not even worth spending a second of your time looking at. 

What we do know is there will be a storm forming and moving toward the Plains in our final days the year. Why should we expect anything less with the absurd nature of 2020, right? The models do agree there will be a storm, and potentially a higher impact storm for some areas. But the usual suspects of track, intensity, and duration are still the limiting factors as to why we can't nail something down this far out. Recent trends in the models continue to shift the storm NORTH, so I'm beginning to think most of what we will get in Kansas will probably be rain.

There have already been some big snows in Kansas (two of them in fact across southwest Kansas with 8-10"+). Other areas just aren't getting anything at all. Will that continue next week? 

Tuesday:

We will be cloudy with a good chance of both rain and snow developing throughout the day. But how much cold air is still available to make snow? That's really the sticking point here. If south winds push the cold air away BEFORE the storm arrives, which has been the trend lately, much of the snow will end up again in western Kansas and up in Nebraska

Here's 6 PM Tuesday:

I'm not saying we won't have any snow next week, but it's looking like a wintry mix, turning to rain, then a little snow heading into Wednesday.

Wednesday:

I'm thinking the storm will be well wrapped up over Kansas or Missouri at this time, putting Kansas in a position to mainly be getting snow. And there will be wind with the storm, so blowing and drifting is a concern for some areas as well.

Thursday:

Unless the storm completely slows down, it should be moving out by New Years Eve. 

We hope you have a Merry Christmas and we will be here to track the storm for you next week.

First Arctic blast - potential storm on the horizon

If you have a great memory, you'll recall the bitter cold and snow that hit Kansas right before Halloween. There was ice and snow on pumpkins and we ended up with our first hard freeze. You could call that "Arctic blast" number one, but since it wasn't officially winter, we will refer to the big drop in temperatures coming midweek as the first real blast. 

If we look to Canada, the Arctic air is really gathering up and it is headed south, but there isn't that much snow on the ground between Kansas and the Canadian border, so that air will warm up as it dives south. The most recent snow cover map (below) shows a big gap over the Dakotas and Nebraska. Even the areas in Kansas that have had snow, much of it has melted. 

Look how different the following maps look and they are separated by just 48 hours. The heart of the cold hits fast (Wednesday)

and 2 days later (on Christmas) we are already warming back to the 50s. 

 

Things are looking interesting for next week (and why shouldn't they be to cap off this unusual year). It looks like we will have a fair amount of cold air hanging around the Plains and that may set us up for some snow chances around Tuesday/Wednesday. Accumulations are possible, so if you are looking at next week for after Christmas travel, heads up. 

Active pattern continues - White Christmas this year?

An active weather pattern will keep us on guard down the stretch and right into Christmas week. The weekend storm still has potential of producing some nice snowfall across mainly southern Kansas. Computer models in recent days have really come around to the idea of 2-4 inches for southwest and parts of south central Kansas, but there will be a few isolated spots that might get just a bit more. Northern Oklahoma may get the most with a few 6 inch amounts.

What comes next week? Looks like another snow chance Tuesday, but most likely NOT a major winter system here either. This will be another fast moving storm that offers up chances for snow, but given the lack of bitter cold, whatever we get will likely be melting soon after late in the week.

Chances of a White Christmas in any given year for Kansas are usually around 10%. So, the odds are definitely not in our favor to have snow on the ground (or falling) on Christmas Day. In search of the last time we had snow for Christmas? It was just three years ago in Goodland, but the last one for Wichita was 2013. 

Next few weeks: The pattern continues to look very active, so I would say of any recent year, we still have a pretty good chance of something happening. Bitter cold temperatures are NOT looking to arrive in time for the holiday, so our snow will have to fall either Christmas Eve or Christmas Day, or we run the risk of it melting too soon. The temperature map shown below shows above average temperatures for Christmas week.

The pattern should favor more low pressure systems tracking in from the Rockies, and there could be a couple of storms to watch just before Christmas.

Weekend storm shows better potential

After some remarkable warmth in the Plains this week, ingredients are still coming together for a rather significant change in just a matter of days. But will this storm provide much in the way of rain and snow? Computer models at the start of the week weren't all that encouraging, but we are starting to see a shift toward more rain and more snow. However, it still doesn't look like a major winter system.  

Thursday:

 

Still looks dry during the day, although the clouds will be gradually taking over our sky in the afternoon. I don't think we will see much (if any) precipitation until midnight, and it could even be later than that. And it's looking like the storm may separate into a couple different pieces. Look at the models Friday afternoon (image below). You see one area over Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, while a larger area of snow is waiting back to the south and west.

 

 

Friday morning:

6am:

It will already be MUCH colder, but where is it going to be cold enough for snow? That's usually the million dollar question going into an event like this and we will nail it down soon. I'm expecting that areas west of a Pratt to Russell line are going to have a good chance of mainly snow. Farther east, its more likely to be mainly rain. The image below is for early Friday afternoon. The eastern two-thirds will likely still be mainly rain with a few snowflakes mixed in.

Friday evening:

5pm

We will be waiting for the second piece of the storm to move in, and when it gets here, almost all of Kansas will be cold enough for snow. The trends we are seeing is that we may be in for more snowfall Friday night-Saturday, which could leave some accumulation in much of the state. 

Saturday:

This could be a day with light snow and cold temperatures. By this time, the rain/snow line should be well east of Kansas, so what we'd be getting will be all snow. However, will it snow long enough to accumulate? Will there be enough moisture for anything more than flurries? Confidence IS growing there will be accumulations for most of the state, but it still looks rather light. I'll start putting up some numbers (both on air and here) Thursday/Friday.

This is just one in a series of storms trying to move our way. In fact, leading right up to Christmas, there will be more systems pushing this way. Does it translate to a White Christmas? It is still possible, but we are going to need access to more cold air, which has been a struggle lately. 

You won't want to miss these & a late week storm on the move

Some of you are already keying in on the two planets closing the gap in the southwestern sky during the evening hours. They will continue to get closer and closer until December 21st when they will be just .1° apart (which is about the width of a toothpick at arms length) They haven't appeared this close together since 1623, and the next extra close Jupiter/Saturn conjunction won't be matched again until 2080.

We also have the Geminid meteor shower that is going to peak in the upcoming weekend. Sunday night (the 13th), there could be as many as 50-60 meteors per hour if you can find a spot away from any kind of light pollution. This could be an extra special show given that the moon won't be a factor and you can start looking as early as 8 or 9 p.m. (not the 2 or 3 a.m. wake up calls)

Change WITH moisture coming late week:

This is NOT likely to be much of a storm for the Plains, but we do have a chance of some light rain and some light snow heading into early Friday. The chances for light rain or snow could very well carry over into Saturday too, but even if it does, we still don't expect the amounts to be all that spectacular. In most cases, I would expect up to about .25". It may not do much more than erase the fire danger for a couple of days. The image below is through Friday evening, but we could get just a little bit more come Saturday. So check back for an update as we get closer.  

Colder weather returns:

Most of us will be back to the 30s and low 40s for afternoon temperatures Friday, so basically half the warmth that we will have enjoyed just a few days prior. Although it will be much chillier, there's still no connection to the Arctic, so it's not going to be anything really out of the ordinary. 

Here comes the December heat wave - before the deep freeze

December is off to an active start with the latest storm now departing the area and leaving some whopping snow behind in Oklahoma and southern Kansas. This was definitely the kind of snow to help the winter wheat with it containing some nice moisture. Just look at some of the amounts below:

December is (on average) the snowiest month out of the year for the Wichita area and we have a head start. Northwest Kansas, including Goodland, did have some snow but it was minimal. 

What's coming next is a rather impressive warm spell for the Plains and Rockies. It's interesting in that there will be some storms out there to watch (one settling into Baja California and perhaps another up around the Great Lakes), but Kansas won't see much of an influence for now. That will leave us with our first full week of December being above normal and dry!

However, we are about to see the bitter cold of Canada and the Arctic unleash as we approach mid to late December. We have been keying in with the Arctic Oscillation dropping negative now for several days on several different model runs. And the longer range indicators are suggesting we trend back to near or below normal temperatures as we move toward the second half of December. So be prepared to trade in next weeks 60s for something much colder soon.

As for rain and snow chances - I still think we will be in a position to have some active weather through mid to late December. Some of the computer models are suggesting more storms will develop and move in from the Rockies, which will make for an interesting forecast leading up to Christmas. The hardest part with some of this active weather is that it may develop or just intensify right in our backyard (like the most recent storm), and that will give us some challenges to consider for December week 2 and 3.