May outlook - will the rains be coming back?

We are going to roll into May with below normal rainfall in a good part of Kansas. The first map shown below is measured rainfall for April around the state. The second map will represent the departure from normal, and every area shown in yellow is at least one inch below average. 

 

Rainfall (compared to normal in April)
 

May averages look like this:

Early May will be WARM!

The first weekend and much of the first 10 days should have above normal temperatures - not likely record setting, but it may feel more like early summer. 

May should cool down some as we continue toward the middle of the month:

I don't expect Kansas to suddenly surge into a summer pattern, even though the first of the month is warm. A trend toward near or below normal temperatures may show up for the second and/or third week of the month. Considering that normal will be mid and upper 70s, this will likely put us in some pretty comfortable weather. This is exactly what happened in April. The month started off warm, but quickly turned cool and the month as a whole ended up below normal.

Rainfall: Again, coming out of a drier April, there's reason to hope for rain in May. The winter wheat would probably appreciate the moisture. On average, the month as a whole tends to be one of the top 3 wettest months out of the year for many areas of Kansas. This is the time of year to get our rains - without it, it can increase our chances of a hotter summer. 

 

 

Have a great day and a wonderful weekend. 

Severe setup today & looking down the road

Our severe weather setup for today (Tuesday) starting gaining some traction last week and there was plenty of chatter about a potential "big day". But as we have seen before, the closer we get in time, new data comes in and models change, it doesn't appear that there will be an outbreak of severe storms. I've had a couple of questions/comments lately wondering if "tornado alley" has shifted. Even though we seem to be in a tornado drought right now, what we know as tornado alley remains (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and parts of the Dakotas). Every year is different and patterns can be strange - that's what makes this an interesting job. 

What is a limiting severe factor today?

Looking at dew point temperatures (a measure of how much moisture is in the air) at 5:30pm, they fall into the 40s and 50s. Several factors come into play here, but generally speaking, when dew points are lower (like they are shown above), chances of severe storms decrease significantly. Southwest winds are going to help push some drier air into western and central Kansas, helping to lower the threat of significant hail. Higher humidity ends up south and east of Kansas, so one would expect the storm threat to be higher there.

Storms carry over to Wednesday:

The cold front will still be crossing the state Wednesday, and it will be enough to trigger more scattered rain and storms. In fact, the majority of the rainfall will probably take place Wednesday afternoon or evening (some amounts may end up near .50"). Rain potential exits the state around midnight.

Early May:

Looks warm to start the month! Good chances for 80s and some 90s returning by the weekend. 

We are on the lookout for two more systems coming out of the west in the first part of the month. One will arrive early next week with a second due in around May 10th. It is too early to speculate on severity of storms, but we will be watching. Expect a May outlook later this week.

Winter is over! Severe weather chances ahead

The weather pattern is finally about to change for a warmer setup. The comments I've seen on social media suggest everyone (or almost everyone) is OVER this cold weather. 

Thursday/Friday rain chance: not very heavy and most of it will be focused to the east. It will be southeast Kansas that probably gets the 1 inch totals (down near Coffeyville)

A very mild/warm weekend awaits:

As the pattern shifts, you will see a HUGE warm up by Sunday afternoon. There will be some locations hitting 80, and if you don't get there Sunday, it comes Monday.

 

 

Severe potential is still there for Tuesday:

A fairly potent low pressure will track from the southwest into the Plains for Tuesday. The upper level winds will likely exceed 100 mph with very high humidity focused over central and eastern Kansas. It is a fairly classic spring setup, but it doesn't guarantee a tornado outbreak. You will probably see a lot of chatter about this on your Facebook and Twitter feeds, but until we are a few days out, there will still be lots of questions. In some ways, it's like predicting winter storms. Many, many things can change that result in a different outcome. Be sure to check in with our group all the way through the weekend as we continue to watch. Timing looks like Tuesday evening (after 6pm) for storms in Kansas.

Another setup may be showing up in just over a week: Another big low pressure may kick out of the west around May 2nd to bring severe weather chances back to the region. Be looking for updates on that very soon. 

Don't miss our Andover tornado 30 year anniversary segments coming up Monday. We have several different angles to cover with respect to what happened with the storm, those that went through it, and how the warning process is different now vs back in 1991. 

Winter finally fading - Severe weather threat is back next week?

The last bit of winter is hopefully on the way out of Kansas. It's already threatening the Kansas winter wheat crop and the early spring gardens are not likely fans of this cold and snow. Most of us are happy to have the moisture, but in late April, we'd probably be better off with rain. 

 Latest snowfall reports look like this:

 Record low temperatures are also being threatened:

 Another system is coming later this week:

This doesn't look like a strong system at all, but it will be spread out over a couple of days. Much of the state will see minimal amounts, but it will be heavier along and southeast of the Turnpike. Friday has the better chance of the two days, especially for south central Kansas. If some thunderstorms do form in our area late week, we won't have a severe threat with temperatures remaining so cool. The model image below might be a little overdone on amounts for Kansas, but shows the heaviest goes across Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas.

Severe weather threat next week?

 

  

It is something we will take a closer look at as the time frame draws near, but early signals point toward a potential threat for the Plains by Tuesday. There will be a stronger low pressure tracking into the SOUTHWEST, which might be key to how this all sets up. I don't think we will be lacking in humidity, as Gulf of Mexico moisture pushes north, dew points will reach the 60s for the eastern half of the state. It is still a week away, so plenty of time to try and iron it all out, but you will likely hear more chatter of stronger thunderstorm potential next Tuesday.

Our next meteor shower reaches its peak

This is the Lyrid meteor shower and it will peak Wednesday night/Thursday, but there's not much excitement surrounding this particular show. First, skies in Kansas will likely be cloudy and the moon will be about 67% full. Even if the weather were to cooperate, you're going to struggle against the moon light and the frequency of the meteors probably isn't high enough to really make it worth your time. If you like meteor showers, you might think about waiting for the next one, which comes along in early May (the Eta Aquarids). You only have a few weeks to wait. 

Spring snow records with more arriving soon

We just finished up a chilly week in Kansas and another good batch of cold air is scheduled to arrive for our third full week of the month. If you've lived in Kansas your entire life, you know cold air in April really isn't that unusual, but snow in late April is definitely weird. Although out of place, we probably won't set any records with what we are forecasting at this point.

Here's a look at latest measurable snow records for Wichita, Dodge City, and Goodland:

The system next week is one that originates in the northern Rockies and sweeps across the Plains Monday night and Tuesday. It's moving fast, so there won't be any monumental snow amounts in Kansas. And considering time of year, it's unlikely we will have shoveling because if the sun pops out for the afternoon, it will be gone in a hurry. 

I'll share with you an early look at how much accumulation right off one of the models. There will be changes in the data before it arrives, but snow seems all but certain and it will likely collect in grassy areas. You may encounter some slushy roads Monday night or early Tuesday, but with ground temperatures in the 50s, it won't be around long. 

Have a great day/weekend - enjoy the beautiful weather on Sunday. 

Rain/snow coming & is this it for the cold?

Our next system coming in from the Rockies should catch most of Kansas up on rain for April. The first half of the month has been relatively warm, but we are erasing that quickly now that we've logged almost a week of cooler than normal temperatures. And it isn't over just yet as you'll see in a second. 

Snowfall forecast:

 

This isn't the latest measurable snow for Northwest Kansas, but it will be heavier than one might expect at this point in the season. Given the duration, track, moisture, and temperatures, we still feel confident on some 3-5 inch amounts for the far northwest. But as soon as you get about 60-80 miles east of Goodland or Colby, there won't be much snow at all. And if there is any snow, it will mainly be in a few grassy areas. 

Rainfall:

 

 

Should wind up close to an inch, but areas north of I-70 may end up closer to 1.50". The least amount of rain will probably fall in southwest Kansas where the totals will be around .50"

3rd week of April is looking like this:

End of April gets back to normal:

We are anticipating another pattern shift that will erase much of the cold and put us back to 70s and 80s. It will be interesting to see if severe weather chances return at this time too. Some of the longer range models are hinting at a west coast low pressure, which may send the Plains states back into a threat for hail and wind. Stay tuned. 

April storm more like a March one

The next storm on the horizon is one that will resembles more of a March system - the only thing lacking will be a severe storm potential. We mentioned last week that chances of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are almost zero when you have a forecast that is so cool for mid-April. It would be more likely to set some kind of late season snow record than having severe storms.

Timing:

The majority of the moisture will show up Thursday evening, starting in western Kansas, then moving east during the night. 

Friday morning:

Safe to expect some snow will be falling in western Kansas, but how far east the rain/snow line gets is something to be figured out as the week continues. As of this writing, it looks like Salina, to Great Bend, down to Medicine Lodge and west - snow is quite likely.

Friday evening:

There is a good chance some rain and snow will still be occurring into the evening hours. It is expected to taper from north to south into Friday night, and should all be over with by Saturday morning. 

Accumulation thoughts:

The snow may come down at a fairly heavy clip in western Kansas early Friday, but latest ground temperatures are in the upper 40s and 50s and that should help to limit major accumulations. It's going to take another few days to iron out the specifics of how much snow, but confidence is high that areas in the west will see more than just grassy areas covered. 

Rain amounts:

Many areas haven't had any decent rain so far in April, so a good 1-2" is probably welcome news. Again, as you look at the map above, some of it will be snow. Remember that we average about 2-3 inches of moisture in the entire month alone, so this will catch us up and even put some areas above normal as we head into the second half of April.

Snow records:

If the April snow accumulates across northwest Kansas, it won't set records for latest measurable. That record (at least for Goodland) is actually in late May. It's hard to imagine 2.5" of snow around Memorial Day, but that's what happened in 2006 to set a record for latest measurable snow. Noteworthy April snows in Goodland include one from 1922, 1989, and 1984. 

Exactly THREE years away from....

Our next total solar eclipse!! 

That's right. If you missed the opportunity to chase the one in 2017 that crossed areas north of us (Wyoming, Nebraska, KC area, Missouri), April 8 2024 is your next best bet. Here's the path of totality (for your early planning and preparations) Big cities like Dallas and Little Rock are in the exact path.

I still remember covering the 2017 eclipse and how lucky we were to get the clouds to part just in time to see the main event. I was in Beatrice, NE with Millie and there were tons of people gathered to watch. Satellite trucks and tv stations from hundreds of miles around. There was so much anticipation leading up to the event, and then day of, we weren't entirely sure the clouds would give us a break. However, we did get a pretty good show and the 360 dusk/dawn view was quite special. It is something everyone should try and see in their lifetime. Pictures and videos just don't do a justice. The 2024 eclipse is expected to have a slightly longer period of totality (roughly 4 minutes in some spots)

 

 

April cold snap is coming!

The chillier-than-average weather should set in next week and I'm not too sure it won't last longer than what you may have seen us advertise on TV. There's about to be a traffic jam of sorts in the upper atmosphere that should lead to a lengthy period of cool weather for our area (more details on that as you read farther down)

Temperatures for the upcoming week:

Temperatures in the 3rd week of April should look like this:

 Why so cool? In the upper atmosphere (roughly 30-40k feet), there's a large high pressure system in northwest Canada. As that sets up, it's going to force cool air back south that will get lodged over the central and northern Plains. We will also have a low pressure forming west of the Continental Divide that will work to produce clouds (also helping keep temperatures down). Eventually, that low pressure west of the Rockies could be a rain/snow maker. Just notice how little the pattern changes from the 15th to the 19th - I think we will be stuck in a rut until late in April when things finally change again.

The outlook for moisture is still optimistic. I know April hasn't started off wet at all, but showers (and even some snow for western Kansas) will be back later next week. And down the road (late April) should be beneficial for some rain too. 

 

What the cool pattern ALSO means - FEWER severe weather threats for the Plains. This is what happened last year to keep the severe weather away from Kansas. We had a bunch of cooler than normal weather that put a lid on rough weather and it helped us get through severe weather season with hardly any tornadoes. I'm not saying this will continue to be the case (because there's still plenty of time for things to heat up and we expect it will), but for now, we don't really have to worry much about it around here.