Northwest heat wave coming to Kansas?

The record heat wave in the Northwest is bad and records have been falling all over the place. It wasn't a surprise considering the setup with a huge high pressure that pushed farther north. This "heat dome" has been hanging out farther south for a good part of June. One of the things that I found remarkable is that Portland's high of 115° beats the all-time record from Amarillo, TX of all places.

As the winds come from the ocean to the coast, it will start bringing temperatures down. It's not the typical northwest cool 70s and 80s, but at least the pressure cooker conditions ease up a bit for so many that don't have AC. It will still be an oven for locations away from the coast.

Meanwhile, east of the Rockies, we have a slow moving low pressure that's creating clouds and giving us some really pleasant late June weather. There is more rain to fall across the central and southern Plains and areas into the upper Midwest. Just take a look at the models for Tuesday:

And Wednesday:

The rainy pattern comes to an end on Thursday as the front slides south - by Thursday night and Friday, almost all of Kansas will have drier weather.

First 10 days in July shouldn't be too bad: Average high temperatures go to low 90s, and I think we will be close to that for much of the Plains. You would see much more red on the map below if we were headed for a prolonged period of 100s, but that setup isn't coming our way.

We could be looking at a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico coming up next week. It's a week away, but conditions are looking favorable for something to develop south of us. It's too early to know if that system will have an indirect impact on Kansas, but Elsa is the next named storm on the list.

Severe weather chances return & look who gets the major heat next

We are coasting into our final weekend of June and the first weekend of summer. And in typical Kansas fashion, it may not feel like the season around here thanks to some significant changes in the upper level winds. 

Severe weather threats setting up for Thursday night:

We are still going to be ahead of a front heading into the night and storms will be coming off the High Plains of Colorado and developing into western Kansas. The movement with storms will be east and I'm expecting areas north of I-70 to have a strong likelihood of getting some rain. I know harvest isn't over and there will be mixed opinions about the rain, but in summer and with the recent dry spell, we better take it when we can. The setup isn't that favorable for widespread large hail (that's the good news), but storms will have a tendency to produce strong wind gusts up to 60 or 70 mph and torrential rains. 

Severe weather potential Friday evening:

A cold front will still be cutting Kansas in half and because the humidity remains so high, we are looking at a favorable setup for more heavy rains and wind gusts that may exceed 60 mph in spots. If we end up with watches and warnings Friday evening, that's more than likely what the concern will be. This is also our best chance of rain on a statewide scale. Once we pass 10 or 11 pm Friday, biggest threats will be torrential rainfall, especially in southern Kansas and Oklahoma. 

Rainfall forecast: 

Latest model data shows Missouri getting big time rains and even parts of northeast Kansas. Much of the state has a chance at some 1" rainfall, but there will be some isolated pockets of maybe close to 2" before it's all over. Remember, this is a combination of several rounds of storms that should be winding down by Saturday afternoon for Kansas. I know June has been really dry, so please be patient. This is likely going to force some wheat farmers from the field for a couple of days. However, it will be nice for the milo and corn.

Weekend humidity drops!

What made the weather so enjoyable back at the beginning of the week was the drier air. Similar conditions return for the Plains Friday night and throughout much of the weekend. Dew point temperatures drop to the 50s, and in Kansas in late June, that's sometimes hard to come by. 

Major heat for the West:

 Next week will be a very tough week for those in the Pacific Northwest. A large, upper level high will setup in that area, leading to excessive heat and potential record highs. Just look at the extended forecast for Boise, ID. The all time record high is 111° - it could be tied soon. 

More cool coming - rain still spotty

June has been a hot month, but if the month ended today, it wouldn't be the temperature records that we'd be highlighting. Instead, it would be the lack of rain on a widespread scale. First, the map of rainfall compared to normal. Only the few pixels of green indicate where the rain was above normal (and there aren't very many). There's a small area in eastern Kansas and one area in the far west. 

 

Latest drought map: 

We are not seeing a major expansion of drought yet, but if we don't get an inch or two of rain in the next 10-14 days, we will begin to see quite a few areas going back to "abnormally dry", especially considering the last few weeks of heat. 

 

June Rainfall:

When looking at the numbers, you'll see that Salina, Dodge City, and Goodland are all on track for a top 10 driest June.

Late week storm chances:

Potential of rain will increase Thursday night and Friday. I know wheat farmers are hurrying, trying to get it all cut before rain impacts the quality. Initially, storms will be fairly scattered (Thu. night), but chances may increase a bit Friday for southern Kansas with the cold front interacting with VERY high humidity. When all is said and done, it looks like northern Kansas could get up to .50" with areas farther south closer to 1". 

It appears that we are heading for a nice finish to June (relative to how the first half of the month went). One of the things that is going to happen is the upper high pressure system (the heat "dome") is expected to retreat westward. This will place the hottest weather for the end of June west of the Rockies. And we could end up with a bunch of 80 days in Kansas for the final weekend of the month. 

 

Early look toward the 4th of July:

Models suggest July may be off to a cooler than normal start. This doesn't mean there couldn't be a day or two where things are hot and humid, but when you average everything out, it would appear that we are NOT heading into a major heat wave anytime soon. And the 4th of July has a chance of being somewhat tolerable with respect to temperatures.  

Have a great day.

Things will be getting interesting soon

A heat wave is already underway across a portion of the country and while there isn't much excitement happening around Kansas (with respect to weather), it is good news for wheat harvest. 

Summer begins Saturday at 10:32 - when there will be 14 hours and 46 minutes from sunrise to sunset. The nights sure are short this time of year. The sun is directly overhead at the Tropic of Cancer and of course as you approach the North Pole, there is no darkness. 

Record watch midweek:

The heat is expanding throughout the central and northern Plains, and it has been hot west of the Rockies. Phoenix is likely to top 115 through the rest of this week (and that's even extreme for Arizona). 

Western Kansas will near record highs in a few spots Wednesday and Thursday before a front starts to change things around (that comes Friday).

Places like Colby, Goodland, and Tribune may make history with the heat as temperatures are forecast to go above 100°. It will also be close in southwest Kansas too. Record highs farther east for Wichita and Salina aren't as likely to be broken.

We are confident in the heat breaking down by the end of the week and long range models have consistently showed late June dropping below normal. That doesn't mean there won't be a hot day mixed in from time to time, but I expect our first, full week of summer to be cooler than what we have been having as of late. 

The upper level winds (jet stream) should make a push back south and cool the northern half of the country down. Record heat has been a problem for the northern Rockies and areas of the country that don't normally stay hot for long periods of time. The hottest weather next week is likely pushed back farther west and we will enjoy some great weather heading right into the 4th of July. 

There's a strong potential of more rain opportunities ahead as we close out June and continue into July. The map shown below says "150-200% of normal moisture" which could easily be a 2 inch (or more) rain event for some of the Plains states. June is (on average) one of the wettest months of the year.

 

Severe chance for parts of Kansas Friday

Leftover thunderstorms from the north will be passing through eastern Kansas today (Friday), but shouldn't be hanging around for too long before departure. Even after some hotter weather this week, we are still doing fine on rainfall for most of the state (I know there are some out there hoping for more rain soon), but wheat harvest is about to start and dry weather is preferred in much of the ag community.

Storms moving south into the evening will have a hail and wind threat, and given the very high humidity, be prepared for some blinding rainfall if caught driving in the storms. 

The expectation is that most, if not all of the storms will exit Kansas before midnight, but a few leftover showers may still be around south of Wichita early Saturday. 

Next week:

 

The high pressure (or heat dome) will shift west early in the week. This kind of pattern is not necessarily favorable for cool weather with rain in Kansas, but it's also not going to be unbearable for our immediate area. A few storm chances will be mixed into the forecast early in the week, but nothing that stands out as a solid chance for widespread rainfall. 

Another tornado record set in the month of May:

Storm Prediction Center has been releasing some incredible records set by the lack of significant severe weather in May. Remember, tornado records go back to 1950 and across the country, we average about 300. While we ended up having near normal tornadoes, only 8 of them were considered "strong".

A first in 7 years & June will be cooling down soon

The peak of severe weather season has come and gone and now we are sliding into the occasional summertime hail/wind threat that will be back. Upper level winds weaken during summer, so the frequency of events is much more sparse than in the months of April and May.  

May tornado stats for the United States:

The actual number may change pending final analysis of the events, but safe to say for Kansas it was another record low number for the month of May. Severe weather chances begin spreading farther north and west out on the High Plains. 

Just a week into June, and the average temperatures are looking like this:

The northern Plains has had a tremendous blast of intense summer heat. Several records were broken last week and although the air has cooled down some, there's still a good deal of warmth north of Kansas. The southern Plains have been in rain and enough clouds to really slow the warm up down. 

Wheat harvest is about to start, so according to Murphy's law, it should start raining again soon. Right? If harvest drags out late into June, there is a strong likelihood of a combine vs rain/mud battle. And we are going to cool the temperatures down too for the second half of the month. While that might be the best news some of you take in all day or week, it's going to have farmers anxious and maybe trying to harvest in road gear.

 

Late June temperatures:

Late June rainfall forecast:

Ring of fire - Thursday:

I've had some questions about the "ring of fire" coming up Thursday morning. Bottom line for Kansas, we won't be able to see it, no matter what the sky conditions. We are just to far south and west and it's over when the sun emerges over the eastern horizon. This is NOT the same as a total solar eclipse. The moon doesn't completely cover the disk of the sun, so there is some sunlight that shines around the moon during the max eclipse, which is setting up for Canada, but not in the US.

First dry stretch in over a month coming up

Hope you are having a great week. We are heading into one of our first dry stretches of weather in over a month, and likely to be the warmest periods of time we've had all year. It will start feeling more like one would expect in Kansas in June. 

Here's the setup for now:

There is a large heat dome that has been cooking the western US. Just take a look at the high temperatures Wednesday afternoon. It's not that uncommon to see 100s in Vegas and Phoenix, but it has been very hot farther north into the Pacific Northwest. 

All of the hot air is expanding and pushing east right into our first weekend of June. It will most likely be hotter in Minnesota than in many areas of Kansas Friday/Saturday. There will be record temperatures tied or broken both days in the Dakotas.

We are not forecasting a major heat wave. In fact, it will be quite the opposite as we start injecting more humidity to the air later in the weekend, our afternoon temperatures will actually drop a bit. It won't be as cool as we have been, but for most of Kansas, we will be near normal for early June. Look what happens by the end of the weekend; we fall back to the lower half of the 80s in much of the state.

Hottest weather in all of June may arrive late next week:

There's a good chance we will be around 90° at the end of our first full week of June, and some places a bit hotter. It's not going to set records of any kind, and it may end up being the hottest weather we will have for the rest of the month. Just take a look at what happens beyond the middle of the month (shown below). That's right, cooler weather is going to find it's way to back. We use the word "cooler" very carefully because at this time of the year, we are still muggy and likely in the 70s/80s. It may not feel that cool to you, but relative to the normal (or average) we should have some decent temperatures down the road (and NOT a major heat wave).

Have a great day.