Where's the rain?! This setup is quite unusual

Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family. May you find plenty to celebrate and be thankful for this year. I'm sure if we could deliver some rain to parts of the state, it would be one more blessing to add to our list. No records to be tied or broken when it comes to Thanksgiving. Actually, for a change, we will have "normal" weather for the holiday. Last year, we had 60° on the holiday - not so much this year.

November is NOT usually a wet month for the Plains and this year is keeping with tradition. Average moisture for most of the state is around an inch or less and there just isn't anything out there to break the current dry spell. Speaking of dry, just look how many days (in a row) with less than .25" for northwest Kansas. Goodland hasn't had a good rain since mid July when almost an inch fell. 

That would explain why we continue to see an expansion of the "severe" drought across the northwest and some areas in the southwest.

Next week, heading into early December, there's not much sign of change yet. Upper level winds continue out of the northwest and that has the Gulf of Mexico moisture shut off. It would take a miracle to get some rain in Kansas between now and December 5th. Upper level winds need to come from the southwest - and we aren't there yet. 

Temperatures (compared to normal): November 30-December 3rd

When is winter going to finally hit? The coldest air has been elusive. We've only had a handful of nights with a hard freeze. The Arctic air is present - in Canada anyway. If you look at the 7am Wednesday temperatures, you'll see some of the bitter cold up around Hudson Bay. However, that pocket of very cold air keeps moving east and doesn't show any potential of a southward expansion. For now, there isn't reason to worry about it showing up between now and the first few days of December.

We may have a change coming in our first full week of December though. Some of the models are showing a decent surge of cold air coming this way in the first weekend of the new month and perhaps more likely around December 6-10th. Will it be Arctic air? Probably not, but more typical of December with highs in the 30s and some lows in the teens. As soon as confidence is high, we'll let you know. 

Don't forget - winter forecast is coming out November 30th. Have a great Thanksgiving.

Thanksgiving travel & potential of a late week storm

Thanksgiving week is going to be pretty nice for travelers in most of the country. As is usually the case, we can't go all week (nationwide nonetheless) without some kind of weather happening in some part of the US that wouldn't be cause for concern. Fortunately, it should be on a limited scale and anyone traveling around Kansas or surrounding states should be fine. 

Monday storm is all in the Northeast:

Tuesday - much of the country is rather quiet, except for the strong winds in the Plains:

Wednesday - some snow coming into the central and northern Rockies, but not a major storm:

Thanksgiving/Friday: Attention will be turning south of Kansas for a potential southern Plains storm. Expectations are this will be a rainy setup for Texas, southern Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana on east. I don't think the storm has much of a chance at getting into Kansas as the track looks to be south of us. Southeast Kansas has a potential of some moisture into Thursday night and Friday, but this is a system that we'll need to watch. It hasn't even formed yet, so forecasts can and will be wildly different until we get a little closer to the actual event.  

However, we are likely to see enough of a pattern shift that chillier weather will overspread a good portion of the Plains, upper Midwest, and Great Lakes. We continue to watch the Arctic Oscillation dip negative for late November and into December. One would expect things to start getting much colder very soon, but so far, we aren't seeing it on the maps yet. It's possible it may be saving up for December.

By the way... our winter forecast is coming out November 30th. We hope you'll look for it once we get everything finalized.

Eclipse viewing weather - a switch to a colder pattern happening soon

The eclipse is happening Friday morning and as we pointed out in the last update, best time for setting the alarm clock and getting out for viewing will be right at 3AM. This is a partial lunar eclipse because the entire disk of the moon will not pass in the Earth's shadow.

What will the weather be like? Clouds or clear?

The bad news - skies won't be completely clear but whatever clouds are passing through at the time should be fairly transparent and not a show stopping situation.

The thickest clouds will likely be in western Kansas, but even in the west, a view of the eclipse is still expected. 

Thanksgiving Week - looking good for most travelers

The areas to watch early in the week will be the Northeast and up near the Great Lakes. I don't foresee too many airports having trouble with weather, but New York City might have some issues Monday. A fairly wet storm will be surging northeast and there will be some snow flying around the Great Lakes.

Tuesday -  same story here. Travel in the midsection of the US is looking good, but the far Northeast part of the country may have some rain/snow that could be an impact.

A switch to colder weather happening around the holiday:

Long range models are trying to develop a storm in or near Kansas and the southern Plains late in the Thanksgiving week. Still so many questions and plenty of uncertainty, but we do expect a return to some colder weather during/after the holiday. 

 Have a great day. We are finishing up a winter forecast and will be posting it very soon. Thanks for spending a few minutes here.

Ready for an eclipse? Plus wild temperature swings on the way

We are nearing our next eclipse and this one WILL be visible across the Plains. The last one we had back in May was only partially visible because the moon went down before we really had a chance to enjoy it. However, a lunar eclipse is coming up November 19th (Friday) and here are the times you need to look (it's going to require an alarm clock for most of us). 

• Begins at 1:18 AM (CST)
• Max coverage by Earth's shadow: 3:02 AM
• All over with: 4:47 AM

Technically, it's a PARTIAL lunar eclipse, but it's very close to being a total. Only about 2% of the moon will not be covered by the Earth's shadow (or umbra), so that's why we can't consider it a total eclipse. The entire thing from start to finish is 6 hours, but I'm guessing you don't want to give up your entire night of sleep. What I would recommend is setting an alarm for 3 A.M. which is when the eclipse reaches its maximum, watch for about 5 minutes, and then call it good. Unlike a solar eclipse, this kind of eclipse is more common and we will get to see a TOTAL coming up May 15/16, 2022. And there will be another one in 2025. Mark your calendars. 😀

We finally have our hard freeze lined up for Saturday morning:

Our third full week of November will be marked by more big temperature changes. First, the warm weather happening Monday/Tuesday. Highs will break 70° in many areas by Tuesday.

Then a midweek cold front hits with little or NO rain likely for this area. However, much chillier weather will follow for the second half of the week. What we lack in rain we will make up for in colder temperatures.

 

Have a great weekend. The Thanksgiving forecast is coming into view and it really doesn't look that bad for Kansas and surrounding areas this year. Right now, still looking like highs in the 40s and 50s. 

Two storms and an early look to Thanksgiving

Hope your week is off to a great start and we will soon have another cold front and storm tracking through the Plains. It's coming off the West coast and moving east quickly - and it won't be in Kansas very long either. The system arriving Wednesday brings rain to central and eastern Kansas. Those of you across the west are likely feeling cheated and this is something we have to think about as we make our winter forecast.

Wednesday rain timing:

Should get going by late morning in central Kansas (east of a Dodge City to Hays line)

Mid-afternoon - the rain keeps pushing east.

Amounts:

Safe to expect .50" totals from this one, but I am certain there will be areas that get more and farther west, amounts go down quickly. This doesn't look like a severe weather setup, but there will be thunderstorms and that will help boost amounts.

Hard freeze Saturday morning:

As the winds calm a bit and skies go mostly clear, I think we will have lows in the 20s around much of the state. A killing freeze looks to be on track. Any amount of cloud cover or shift in winds may change things a bit, but the areas that have not dropped below 32 should get there to start the weekend.

Another storm next week (Nov. 17/18)

This looks to be the case, once again around Wednesday/Thursday. It may have a rain AND snow component, but since the storm hasn't formed yet, we don't know very many details. 

Early Thanksgiving thoughts:

Will it be warm enough to send some family outside, or will we be stuck inside because of the cold? What will the travel weather be like? Plenty of questions leading up to the big holiday and a really busy time of year. Right now, expect the Plains to be cold - likely an indoor Thanksgiving holiday this year. I'm not sure yet if we will have rain or snow around the holiday, but it does appear that we are going to have a pretty chilly holiday.

November warmth will be followed by another storm

Nearing the end of our first week in November and it has been colder than normal for most of the Plains. However, a good portion of the state has NOT had a killing freeze yet. 

Changes this weekend with the highly advertised warm up (jet stream goes back north) will send us back into the 70s. I think we will even have some 80s in southwest Kansas Sunday afternoon if you can believe that. Record highs? Maybe close in some spots, but not likely in very many places.

Expect a cold front to arrive Monday:

This isn't anything dramatic, but our temperatures go back down to 50s and 60s - closer to the average in November.

The West gets active once again - Another rain/snow making storm will come into the coast Monday/Tuesday that should produce some widespread moisture from California to Washington. Models are indicating 1-3" on the coastline and heavy, wet snows will occur in the Sierras and Cascades.

Getting out of drought will take some significant time. After all the heavy rain in late October, some areas more than 10 inches above average (map shown below), there's still dire need for more rain. 

 

There's still widespread exceptional drought in California and Nevada, with extreme to exceptional drought ongoing in Oregon and Washington.

Storm for Kansas:

 

Looking like an arrival of Wednesday for the Plains states. This is most likely going to be a rain event with some snow passing us by to the north. It's early to speculate on amounts because it will depend on how fast the system comes through. 

Once the system departs, we will open up to colder air filtering in for the end of the week and our second weekend of November. November from the start has look colder than average, and that still looks like it's going to hold up moving forward. There is also a GOOD chance to have a hard freeze heading into next weekend.

Have a wonderful weekend. Don't forget to FALL back.

Chilly rain - pattern shift on the horizon

Hope your week is off to a good start. The weather we are having right now is more typical of our winter months (Dec - Jan), not early November. Our normal high falls to the low 40s around Christmas time, so it's for sure out of place.

Total rainfall through Wednesday won't be much. There isn't much of a storm to track - this is more of a cloudy, damp pattern that persists long enough to get some measurable precipitation, but amounts will be very light. I think rainfall totals will come in under .25" and snowfall will be even lower, likely just trace amounts.

Did you see this from Nebraska Monday morning? This was I-80 near Kearney - grassy areas covered for a bit, but since the ground is still plenty of warm (around 40°), it didn't survive the afternoon temperatures.

Pattern Shift: This is coming into better view for later in the week. It's going to warm back above normal by the weekend and our second full week of November looks quite a bit warmer AND dry. It's nature just balancing things out really.

Cold air reloads for mid-late November, which means we may have some very chilly weather for early Thanksgiving travel. And it may be quite chilly around the holiday itself. Here's a map with . It's quite possible we will have another cold snap for any early Thanksgiving travel. 

Have a great day.