Next winter storm - here we go!

February is going to start with a winter storm coming through the Plains. Snow, wind, and very low (even dangerous) wind chills shaping up in the coming days. This may end up being one of the bigger snow events of the winter season for parts of the state. On the heels of 20"+ for western Kansas last week, I don't think we will see that again in Kansas with this upcoming system, but we will have measurable snow.

Here's what remains of the big snow from last Tuesday:

Satellite still shows a pretty good area from Jetmore to northeast Colorado. Goodland still reports 2 inches on the ground, but just south of there, it still appears to be quite a bit more. There was major melting over the weekend, but some of that will stick around for a bit longer with colder weather coming. 

Here's what we know about the next winter storm:

• Not going to be a major ice storm, even though areas along and southeast of the Turnpike may have some ice to start
• Snow will likely occur most, if not all day, Wednesday (some heavy at times)
• Wind gusts from the north/northeast will cause blowing snow, but unlikely to be a full on blizzard - gusts will be near 20-25
• Wind chills dipping -10 to -20 will probably happen Wednesday night/Thursday morning
• Travel will be difficult Wednesday

There could be some rain showers popping up in south central/southeast Kansas Tuesday afternoon and evening. That will happen right along and just behind the cold front.

As the system gets its act together and starts progressing east, heaviest snow will occur Wednesday morning and early afternoon (especially over southern Kansas). This will likely happen from around Wichita up to Topeka and KC.

And because this is a large storm that is slow moving, I still think we'll have light snow falling Wednesday night, especially over southern Kansas. This will be the second wave of snow, and some additional accumulations seem likely.

This is 10PM Wednesday:

Snow should be winding down Thursday morning, however, an area of light snow may continue near the KS/OK line. When this all wraps up, heaviest amounts look to be south and east, where in excess of 6-8" may fall. There's quite a bit of moisture with this particular system, so we will see higher amounts that most winter systems this year (so far)

When melted down, we could be in the ballpark .50-.75" of moisture. That's not bad for a winter system, and definitely going to be one of the heavier amounts of precipitation since October. 

Forecast wind chills are pretty ugly, especially by Thursday morning:

Remember, when wind chills approach -10 to -20, that's when frostbite potential ramps up quickly. 

Have a great day and we will provide more updates as the storm gets closer. 

Snow to rain ratios & the next winter system on the way

Getting several questions about how much actual liquid did western Kansas get after 20+" of snow? It was some of the heaviest accumulation experienced in a long time for places, but in the end, it doesn't wipe away the drought. However, it could be the difference between a failing wheat crop and one that turns out to be okay. 

When figuring out how much actual water comes from the melting snow, it's important to know what the temperatures were like during the event. Tuesday, when the snow was falling, most areas were showing temperatures in the low to mid 20°s. Look at the chart below:

Closer to freezing (32), we would expect 10 inches of snow would give us 1 inch of actual moisture. That would be considered and "average" snow to liquid ratio. It IS possible that if temperatures are in the mid 30s, one could expect a 7:1 ratio (7 inches of snow = 1" of rain). 

As it gets colder, the moisture content drops, and we move toward a powdery snow. As was the case Tuesday, I think we were closer to the 15":1 ratio (15" for 1" of actual moisture). Goodland is now showing .80" for the month of January, which is a little bit above normal for actual liquid moisture. Dodge City had 8.3" of snow, and it melted down to .32" - a little drier snowfall than Goodland had. 

Temperatures down in the middle teens would be closer to a 25:1 ratio. That's a very dry snow and usually blows around easily. Normally when it gets that cold, the beneficial moisture from snow isn't as good, but it can still serve as an insulator to crops and vegetation. 

Winter snow update:

Now that we've had a decent winter event, we are getting back to near normal on snow for Goodland and Dodge City. Far southwest Kansas is still hurting because they were missed almost entirely by Tuesday's storm. 

And it continues to be a snowless winter thus far in many areas of central/south central Kansas too. Safe to say most locations around Salina, Great Bend, Hutch, and Wichita are a good 5-8 inches below average. 

Next winter storm:

This system has potential to be a widespread, higher impact system. Since we are still days away, the specifics aren't clear. We know it will be a stronger system and likely slow to move, but track and overall setup will have to be resolved by new models in the coming days. If the track performs like what we are seeing now, rain, ice, and snow will all be a possibility. There's plenty to watch for as it ejects from the southwest. 

As we've mentioned before here on the blog, storm tracks that come in from the southwest tend to have a higher supply of moisture. This means the areas that have had almost no moisture all winter may finally get something more than just flurries. 

One model gives some widespread half inch total precipitation (liquid). How much of this is rain, ice, and snow - stay tuned. It's just one model and we are several days away yet.

Have a terrific day. 

Biggest snow for western Kansas all winter

Much of western Kansas has not had any real significant snow this winter, but the system tracking through the area Tuesday-Tuesday night is likely the biggest snow so far this winter. At this point in the season, we would expect to have roughly 10 inches of snow for western Kansas, but we aren't anywhere close. As Tuesday continues, look for:

• Light winds - blowing snow not likely to be a huge problem
• No ice/sleet
• Slick areas on highways and I-70 will have some rough patches too
• Heaviest snow will be in a band from northeast CO down to west-central KS

The snow should develop and push south through the day. It will taper off into the evening and likely be long over with by Wednesday morning. If we melt down the snow to actual water, it should yield about .50" for several areas, especially in areas north of Garden and Dodge City. This is excellent news, but won't make a huge dent in the drought.

This comes at a critical time when drought continues to expand and worsen. The latest drought map has more than 50% at least in "moderate" drought. Southwest is dealing with "extreme" drought.

The next few weeks could be some of the most active weather we've had all winter. Upper-level winds may get switched around to the southwest, which would be more helpful in bringing a moisture supply back to the area. Many of our recent winter systems have reached us from the northwest, which isn't a favorable storm track for higher end precipitation. Let's see if the beginning of February turns out as active as advertised from recent models. The image shown below is moisture (compared to average) for the next few weeks. Never a guarantee, but reason to hope.

Have a great day.

Past performance is no guarantee ...

Snow has been scarce (to say the least) this winter. We've had just a handful of winter systems track through the area, but nearly all of them (except for one around the first of the year) have not had much moisture with them. Despite the several hours of light snow on Wednesday, western Kansas barely had more than a trace. Even though there hasn't been much snow, it doesn't mean it couldn't turn that way soon. A couple of examples to share:

For instance, look at Goodland:

An an example for Wichita:

If you've lived in Kansas for a long time, you know some of the worst winter storms can come in February and especially March. Right around the time most of us are gearing up for spring, we can get dumped on with a potent low pressure coming in from the southwest. I still think this winter pattern has potential to drop some heavy snow, and it may all come in one good storm. 

Remember this snow from just last February on Valentine's day? Courtesy Jake Dunne

And this heavier snow event from February 19th, 2019:

And then there was the doozie of a snow storm back in February of 2013 that left nearly a foot of snow on most of the state (courtesy National Weather Service - Wichita)

Have a great day. Thanks for spending a few minutes here. 

Are we having record low snow in Kansas this winter?

Hope your week is off to a great start. The brief warm up turns cold again for the middle of the week and there's going to be some snow for the area too. It's going to be quite some time before the next worthwhile winter storm comes through central Plains. This midweek system is basically another dud with some light snow or flurries - so it's not going to be helpful when it comes to drought.

Latest forecast looks like this:

It could start as early as Wednesday morning (most likely in northwest and eastern Colorado) and then gradually spread south (to catch southwest Kansas) Wednesday night and early Thursday.

This is another case of a system coming in from the north/northwest and its moisture starved. The drought continues to cover more area as the weeks drag on and we aren't able to get anything noteworthy. I understand that most don't really want to deal with snow, but it would sure do the wheat and grass a world of good to get a 6"+ snow event. 

Are we having record low snow this winter?

These stats take into account snow from December 1st through todays date. There is a stark difference between this year and last when it comes to snow. At this point in the 2020-21 winter, we had already had 10-15 inches in much of the state. Definitely not the case right now. 

Here's what I've come up with in terms of snowfall and how it ranks with respect to the last 10 years and then all time (most snow records go back to around 1900). 

Up next:

More bitter cold next week. Monday should turn out to be the warmest day, and then the bottom drops out once again. This will probably end up being colder than what most of us will have this week. Afternoon highs look to be in the 20s (would be colder if there was snow on the ground) and lows in the single digits.

Early February could be very cold: We are quickly coming up on the one year anniversary of the 2 week cold snap that paralyzed most of the southern Plains. Remember the frozen pipes and power outages that wreaked havoc on Texas? That all started right around Valentine's day. I don't think we will quite have a repeat of that, but February 2022 looks cold again with several Arctic blasts moving this way.

How the upcoming storm track differs from big winter storms

The low pressure system tracking into the area will not be one with big snows for our immediate area. We say that with high confidence because of the way this storm approaches Kansas. Our latest forecast looks like this: 

Systems that approach Kansas from the northwest are usually limited on moisture. They tend to lack good, rich Gulf of Mexico humidity and therefore, precipitation amounts are generally lower.

Winter storms that are more significant tend to come through the 4 Corners region, with a tendency to ingest higher humidity. Track is always key, but there is a stark difference between the current system and a more robust winter storm that comes in from the southwest. 

That being said, there will still be some light snow into Saturday. Biggest travel concerns will be in northeast Kansas where some 2-4 inch amounts look likely. That will probably lead to snow packed roads for a time Saturday, but by evening, conditions will likely improve even for those areas.

Very strong winds likely: We are also up against wind gusts of 40-55 mph from Friday afternoon through daybreak Saturday. Blowing dust and high fire danger are also a concern for western Kansas. 

A snapshot of wind gusts around 7pm:

And another after midnight:

Heads up for more cold weather middle of next week:

Another potent cold front should drop through the area Tuesday night/early Wednesday. We are working to figure out just how cold it's going to be and for how long, but the coldest day of the week is likely Thursday when highs will be in the teens and 20s. I don't think this is something that will continue for a long period of time, but it's going to be bitterly cold with some flurries possible Wednesday and Thursday.

We will likely have a dry setup for the second half of January. The long range pattern would suggest not much rain or snow for the next couple of weeks. If we do get some moisture, it will be very light. Stay safe and have a great weekend.

Next winter system soon to arrive

The Pacific Northwest is getting hammered with more rain and mountain snows Wednesday/Thursday. Flooding is a threat around Seattle with 2-3" of rain expected through Thursday night. That will likely move 2022 to the #1 spot for "wettest start to any calendar year" for that area.

I point out this system because it's going to track through the northern Rockies and then begin its decent into the central Plains. Every model run in the last couple of days continues to shift the system a bit farther south. That's why the forecast in the last 24 hours has changed and we are mentioning snow for several areas of the state.

If the track holds up, the heaviest snow with this system will fall across eastern Nebraska, northeast Kansas, and into Missouri.

Low pressure systems that track in from the northwest are 99% of the time nothing more than light precipitation makers. They don't normally have the moisture supply that other systems coming from the southwest tend to have. As far as timing is concerned, it should be after dark Friday night for things to get started. Initially, it looks like some rain will fall. Here's a snapshot of 10-11pm Friday:

Then early Saturday morning:

Saturday afternoon should see it tapering off from north to south. Early indications point to a TRACE-1" for much of our immediate area, but from Smith Center to Salina to Emporia (east of that line), it could easily be 1-3". This means KC will have a fresh blanket of snow prior to everyone gathering for the Chiefs game on Sunday.

A return to winter:

Wind is something we will have Friday night and Saturday. Gusts will likely be around 30 mph straight out of the north. Wind chills are going to be pretty ugly Saturday morning and into the early afternoon. 

Wind Chills 6am:

Wind Chills 1pm:

Have a great day. Enjoy the mild weather while we have it.

A quiet week before cold air reloads

The pattern this week looks fairly benign, which should equate to some nice weather by January standards. It's not going to be the record warmth that December left us with, but there should be some fairly mild days coming up and maybe we'll get some 60s before it's over. 

Setup this week:

It's likely that we'll have a few days with high pressure setting up near the central Rockies. Jet stream winds return north, and this should mean uneventful weather for the central US. The really cold weather quickly retreats north and east when the pattern sets up like this. This isn't something that will last for very long as you'll see in a moment.

Temperatures Tuesday:

Temperatures Wednesday:

Temperatures Thursday:

Unfortunately, earlier talk of rain for our immediate area is out (surprise, surprise). The system never looked all that strong, and now models are completely washing out the system. This should be a dry week coming up. 

Late week front: Friday-Friday night, a cold front will come through with stronger north winds returning. Temperatures will drop, but this does not appear to be Arctic air arriving. It looks like highs in the 35-40° range for this area, which is not as extreme as recent fronts.

There will be a close encounter with some snow, but given the track of the storm (coming from the northwest), I wouldn't expect this to be anything more than a "close call" or a light snow chance into Friday night. We'll post more as it gets closer, but likely a dud for Kansas. 

More potential Arctic air coming - heads up for the second half of January. Trends continue to look colder as we move into January week 3 and 4. Northern and central Plains, upper Midwest, and points to the east will likely experience a reloading of bitter cold. A big winter storm seems unlikely given that whatever comes this way will likely approach from the west/northwest.