Good chances for rain - some significant

Enjoy your Thanksgiving holiday and I hope you find many reasons to feel blessed at this time of year. Between the drought, crop loss, searing heat, etc. it's been a stressful year. 

We could consider it a Thanksgiving gift, but it will be late (better late than never) This is a slow-moving system that will spin over Texas for a few days, and then eject to the northeast toward Kansas. Confidence is increasing this will catch most of the state (but not all, of course). The areas in such dire need may get left out. 

All the action on Friday should be south in Texas and Oklahoma:

The wintry side of this system will be limited in areal coverage, but the impact could be significant. Several inches, and I mean several, could fall near the Amarillo area Friday. In this case, there shouldn't be a ton of wind and blowing snow, but it could be heavy and it will definitely be wet. Travel in that area Friday will be interesting and you should be prepared for some issues. Conditions will improve for Saturday.

Saturday 7A.M.:

Noon:

5P.M.:

When the system departs, we could easily end up with .50-1" (or more for southern and eastern area)

There still isn't much cold air coming in, so I look for us to have milder weather moving into the beginning of next week.

Computer models struggle, but confidence is increasing

Remember Thanksgiving 2015? It was the year we had an ice storm that hit during the holiday, leaving some with damage and power outages. I remember sitting down at the table and as soon as my mom put the food on the table, the power went out. The timing was perfect - or less than perfect, depending on how you look at it. 

Here's the map we were showing going into the storm:

As it would turn out, central Kansas ended up with the most ice, with reports of 3/4" of ice in many areas. 

Changes coming - and it impacts post-Thanksgiving travel:

We won't be cold enough for ice to be a concern. Just take a glance at what temperatures will look like Thursday morning around 8am.

The same system responsible for the cloudy, damp, chilly weather will hang out in the southern Plains for Friday. It's expected to kick to the northeast into the weekend, and the system is wobbling back to the west, so we have adjusted the forecast. 

Thursday night/Friday snow:

If you have travel plans that take you southwest during this time, there's a chance for some wintry weather. I would say (and again, there may be some slight adjustments) that travel from Elkhart and Liberal south may offer up some challenges. Temperatures will not be that cold, so roads are likely wet and slushy. However, if the snowfall is heavy enough and persistent, it may outpace the plows. Something to keep in mind. The image below is for midnight (Thursday night/Friday AM)

The system will remain south of us Friday afternoon, leaving us with good travel weather in Kansas and a quiet day. 

Biggest changes to our forecast are for Saturday. The system is likely going to lift back to the north and bring some wet weather across a good part of Kansas. Just take a look at 6am Saturday:

Saturday 3pm:

It's a little early to talk about amounts, but several inches of snow may fall to our south with this system given the slow-moving nature of it all. As for rainfall, I don't know that we will get up to an inch for most locations, but certainly some .25-.50" wouldn't be unreasonable to expect - unless you are farther west. Plenty to look at during the remainder of this holiday week.

Early look to December:

Looks to me like we will (for a change) have a cold December. Near to below average temperatures look to be pretty common in the month ahead. It seems to me the last several Decembers have been a little warmer, but this one may be quite different. Does that mean we get to spring sooner? I don't think that's how it works, but one can always hope, right? 

A very different pattern is coming up - Thanksgiving and beyond

This has been quite a stretch of cold weather - not just in Kansas but most of the country. The warm weather we had back at the beginning of the month is finally being offset by this latest cold blast. 

From the Great Plains to the west, much of the country has had near to below normal temperatures. The eastern half of the country has had some cold weather too, but not enough to wipe out the warmth from the beginning of the month.

And it's not over until we get beyond Saturday, which is when the upper-level winds begin to shift and carry the coldest air on to the northeast. 

Here's how things will look by Sunday afternoon:

Thanksgiving Week Preview:

Much of the country will have milder weather in the upcoming, holiday week. This will lower the risk of running into icy or snow roads but doesn't entirely eliminate the risk. The week will start off rather quiet for most of the country. However, we do expect a midweek system to setup in the central Plains. Here's what new data out this morning looks like for Wednesday:

Given latest trends, I think heavier rainfall will happen south and east of Kansas, and if you are flying through Dallas, there's a risk of flight delays given potential of thunderstorms. Other major airport hubs should be fine.

Thanksgiving Day travel won't be too bad, but again, wet weather is a strong possibility for areas east and southeast of Kansas. Given the overall lack of cold air, this is all likely rain - no ice or snow.

East coast looks good, but areas to the north (including Pacific Northwest) may have messy weather with rain and snow. 

After Thanksgiving - big time warm up coming?

We could very well see a large high pressure develop across the midsection of the country. If this comes through, there's a good chance we will see a return to 60s and maybe some 70° weather post-Thanksgiving. I know we need more rain, but the outlook for the next two weeks is not overly optimistic for our immediate area. 

Thanks for coming by for a few minutes.

Cold, cold, and then more cold

A busy week coming to a close, but not before having a wild Election Day, strong winds, big changes in temperatures, and a hurricane. Oh yeah, let's not forget the northern Plains blizzard too.

Everything is changing fast as cold air takes over, not just for parts of the US, but much of the country is going to be below normal on temperatures in the coming days. The last time we had a November that ended up colder than average was in 2019. Here's the snapshot for early next week:

We also have to watch for an early season winter system to come through the area Monday/Tuesday. Already on Facebook and Twitter, some weather enthusiasts are posting forecast snow amounts. Please be extra cautious with the social shares because it leads to confusion and sometimes, unnecessary panic or hype. Winter systems are tricky and specific details will reveal themselves to us when we are about 36-48 hours out. This image below is a regional view, and what I'd take away from it is that there appears to be a connection to the Gulf of Mexico. When we see that, precipitation tends to be more widespread and a bit heavier, but again, track is key.

I don't expect it to be a big winter system, but there's potential to leave behind some snow cover. I have no idea if school will be called off, but at this junction in time, I'd say probably not. It's just not that big of a system for Kansas. Right now, forecast amounts for snow are quite low (less than a few inches), but we will spend the weekend monitoring the trends.

Certainty is high that the next few weeks will be cold, but I think the setup will probably favor drier than average conditions. Aside from the system Monday/Tuesday, I doubt we will see much moisture through Thanksgiving. That being said, what we lack in moisture just might be made up for in the colder air.

Have a wonderful day.

More active weather on the horizon - and will we see the lunar eclipse?

A big low-pressure system with rain, thunder, and snow pushes on to the east but not before leaving behind some great rainfall in several locations. This will deliver a nice punch to the drought, but more rain is still needed, and it needs to catch western Kansas. 

There are two features of interest next week. First, another large low pressure will cut into the western US with widespread rain/snow opportunities. We are looking at 15,000-20,000 feet above the Earth's surface and the huge dip in the jet stream (or weather pattern as we sometimes call it) will be the feature of interest. 

Ahead of it, we will once again pump the warm AND humid air into the Plains. Look at the dew point temperatures (measure of how much moisture is in the air) and those numbers surging above 60 is a good sign. Notice how the higher humidity goes all the way to the Dakotas. 

We should be setup for some light rain or drizzle on Election Day - this is not going to be a big rain scenario, but it will be damp and rainfall expectations will likely be set at less than .25" - let's see if that holds up with more data in the coming days. It's doesn't appear to be anything significant. 

Meanwhile, later in the week (focusing Thursday-Friday), another setup will likely feature a cold front/low pressure system coming out of the Rockies that may yield some rain, thunder, and snow. Confidence is LOW here - so hang with us as we figure it all out. There's a possibility of some decent precipitation, but as you'll hear us say over and over, it comes down to TRACK. And that's not certain this far out. 

Last lunar eclipse until 2025:

We might not have the best seat in the house for this one. Low clouds could be very problematic, but western Kansas may have some breaks in the overcast. I'm just not sure we will luck out this time given the setup into Tuesday morning. The next total lunar eclipse won't come until 2025, so we're going to be waiting awhile for the opportunity to return. At any rate, here are the times to look - best if you are an early riser. This one will peak between 4:16 and 5:41AM.

Big system rolling in - rain, thunder, and even signs of winter

A highly advertised storm is about to come through the Plains, and as it does, we will have high humidity, wind, thunderstorms, and a brief brush with some winter. I think what's so encouraging with this powerful low pressure is just how much Gulf of Mexico humidity we'll be latching on to, but that doesn't necessarily mean everyone in Kansas will get good rain. 

Dew point temperatures (a measure of how much water is in the air) climb above 50 and 60 - which is more than enough to get thunderstorms and some heavier rainfall. In November, these numbers are high (even in spring, they'd be high), so I don't think there's a question about moisture to feed this next system.

As some of the storms organize and begin their trek to the east, wind gusts of around 60 mph are going to be possible. I don't foresee this happening on a large scale, as storms that go linear quickly tend to favor more wind threat than anything else. Our biggest rains will occur between 12am and 1pm Friday.

Rainfall forecast: I'm a little concerned that FAR western Kansas may not get much at all (probably less than .25"), but amounts will come up quickly farther east. I would expect from Hays to Dodge on east, we could expect close to an inch or more. It's not going to end drought but offers some temporary help and maybe get the rest of the winter wheat to sprout. 

Little bit of snow - don't be alarmed:

In the absence of much colder air, much of the snow will be limited to the highest elevations west of Kansas (mainly Rockies and High Plains). We could get some snowflakes mixing with rain Friday and early Saturday, but that's it. The coldest air is locked up farther north.

Trending toward cold soon:

We still expect a flip to some colder weather soon - mid month & into Thanksgiving. A front is coming through later next week, and although it will be a little chilly then, I still look for temperatures to dip more later into the month. 

Have a great day.