Computer models struggle, but confidence is increasing

Remember Thanksgiving 2015? It was the year we had an ice storm that hit during the holiday, leaving some with damage and power outages. I remember sitting down at the table and as soon as my mom put the food on the table, the power went out. The timing was perfect - or less than perfect, depending on how you look at it. 

Here's the map we were showing going into the storm:

As it would turn out, central Kansas ended up with the most ice, with reports of 3/4" of ice in many areas. 

Changes coming - and it impacts post-Thanksgiving travel:

We won't be cold enough for ice to be a concern. Just take a glance at what temperatures will look like Thursday morning around 8am.

The same system responsible for the cloudy, damp, chilly weather will hang out in the southern Plains for Friday. It's expected to kick to the northeast into the weekend, and the system is wobbling back to the west, so we have adjusted the forecast. 

Thursday night/Friday snow:

If you have travel plans that take you southwest during this time, there's a chance for some wintry weather. I would say (and again, there may be some slight adjustments) that travel from Elkhart and Liberal south may offer up some challenges. Temperatures will not be that cold, so roads are likely wet and slushy. However, if the snowfall is heavy enough and persistent, it may outpace the plows. Something to keep in mind. The image below is for midnight (Thursday night/Friday AM)

The system will remain south of us Friday afternoon, leaving us with good travel weather in Kansas and a quiet day. 

Biggest changes to our forecast are for Saturday. The system is likely going to lift back to the north and bring some wet weather across a good part of Kansas. Just take a look at 6am Saturday:

Saturday 3pm:

It's a little early to talk about amounts, but several inches of snow may fall to our south with this system given the slow-moving nature of it all. As for rainfall, I don't know that we will get up to an inch for most locations, but certainly some .25-.50" wouldn't be unreasonable to expect - unless you are farther west. Plenty to look at during the remainder of this holiday week.

Early look to December:

Looks to me like we will (for a change) have a cold December. Near to below average temperatures look to be pretty common in the month ahead. It seems to me the last several Decembers have been a little warmer, but this one may be quite different. Does that mean we get to spring sooner? I don't think that's how it works, but one can always hope, right?