Comet watch continues - Arctic air warning

Maybe you heard about the comet that's visible for the first time in 50,000 years (we had it on the air about 3 weeks ago), but viewing is slightly better now that it's a little higher in the night sky. This is comet ZTF, and you want to be looking to the north and probably best if you can find the Big and Little Dippers to start. Now in late January, the comet will be cutting right between the two, and maybe just slightly closer to the Little Dipper. 

It is suggested that viewing improves with binoculars, but you'll still be able to spot it with the naked eye (if you can get away from the city light pollution, it will be easier). The forecast is less favorable for viewing (with some clouds) over the weekend, and then of course there's the very cold air that won't make it so enjoyable to go out comet-watching. You might take advantage of Thursday and Friday nights (although it remains visible even into early February)

Those that enjoy finding the planets should know that Venus and Saturn are still having a very close conjunction in the evening sky. They are only about 1/2° apart, so it might look like one big planet. 

Arctic Air Warning: through our final days of January and early February. There's no stopping it now as it begins its trek to the south and blankets much of the country by early next week. This is something that will be around for many days, so you might want to prepare for at least 5 or 6 days of sub-freezing weather. Given that we still have a tremendous amount of snow cover, the chances of this air warming up at all as it moves is slim to none. This will be a much longer cold snap than anything we've seen this winter. 

Take note of how much snow is on the ground between Kansas and the Canadian border:

That area north of Kansas that is snow-covered will likely have sub-zero temperatures for awhile late weekend and early next week. Note how it even drops into NW Kansas too.

Chances of a winter storm to wrap up January??

At this time, we will not have a big storm for the final days of January and early February. There is a system that will come from California early in the week, but the main track of it will be south of Kansas. There could (and probably will be) some decent ice forming across Oklahoma into Arkansas and southern Missouri. South central and southeast Kansas may get some sleet or very light snow, but concerns of a major ice storm are NOT there for Kansas. 

Much of the week will likely have high temperatures that stay below 32°. Look at the map for Thursday (February 2) and notice where the red line (freezing) will be - mostly south of Kansas. I don't think we will likely get out of the deep freeze until we reach the end of the week. 

Hope you have a great day - spring isn't that far off (less than 60 days 😌)

Arctic air watch - might be the longest stretch

We are nearing the end of this very active stretch of weather with one storm after another. The latest one happens to be farther south than most recent storms, so there isn't much moisture out of this one for Kansas. The center of the storm is actually closer to Houston than any other major metropolitan area. 

However, we are shifting our focus to the major cold snap that is about to unload on the Plains and (maybe) much of the country. There is a good amount of snow cover between Kansas and central Canada, so any cold air coming from that region won't have much chance to warm up. 

Friday afternoon: The very cold air will still be several hundred miles to our north but starting to dislodge and move south. Single digit temperatures can be found over the snow in North Dakota. And that's just the leading edge. 

Saturday: this is when the cold front should be cutting through Kansas, and it will likely happen during the afternoon, so expect the temperatures to start falling quickly later in the day.

Sunday: expectations are that much colder air takes over and because it will be so cold, any amount of moisture will get squeezed out in the form of light, powdery snow. This is not uncommon, but if it sets up like I think it will, there should be much accumulation (probably close to an inch or so) for our immediate area. 

Snow chance? There should be some snow coming through the area too, but remember that the colder we get, the less moisture contained in the snow - this most likely won't amount to very much. This would impact the area Saturday night/Sunday - so anyone with interest in the AFC Championship game should take note of the potential wintry weather that we will be up against for this area. I don't know if this will be the coldest championship game on record, but it might be close.

There may be some smaller systems coming through leading into early February, but the setup for the next few weeks may not be that productive in getting good amounts of moisture into the region. As for the bitter cold, there's plenty of it for the next few weeks.

Into mid-February: It may not be record cold, but much of the country will likely be near or below average on temperatures. I know this is not an overwhelmingly popular season, but there's still a lot of winter to get through before we see the light of spring.

Thanks for spending some time here. Have a great day.

Winter storm after winter storm and California crazy

One storm continues to follow another, just like it was for California a few weeks ago. However, the end result is not going to be what it was in the West. More about that in just a second. 

The next system crossing the Plains has some moisture to work with and will bring some beneficial snow (and a little rain), but it will not be as intense as the previous system was for the area. Without going into great detail, there are some factors missing from this low pressure that would make it more impactful. That being said, without any significant wind (should be under 15 mph during much of the storm), this snow should come down and cover some wheat fields. I know that will be crucial for some Kansas farmers. It sure feels like most of the time when we get snow, there's a lot of wind behind it to push it all into the ditch. That won't happen with this storm.

Here's our snowfall forecast:

When we melt that down, actual liquid moisture that will be produced could be close to .25-.50" (see the image below).

We are about one month into winter and here's a quick checkup on where we stand for snow amounts:

The storm arriving next week (January 23-25) 

We'll need to keep close tabs on this one. Lately, computer models 4-7 days out suggest storms will track south of Kansas, only to see them wind up actually closer to Kansas. Will that happen with our final storm of January? 

Monday, the system will still be in a developing stage to our west, likely producing some good snows in the Rockies.

Tuesday, there are different ideas about what could happen. See for yourself. Computer model #1 has the entire system south of Kansas, leaving us with virtually nothing. The other computer model (#2) would have it farther north and provide more beneficial moisture. Why do we see such variations in the models sometimes? One has to remember that we are predicting something that isn't even reality yet, so until it actually forms, possible outcomes can be quite varied. These are the things that can drive a meteorologist crazy, but makes the job interesting. 

There's still a strong signal toward cold in the coming weeks. I don't think the cold for the last week of January is it - it will likely go much colder soon going into February. We keep waiting to see it show up in our 10-day predictions, but we aren't quite there yet. 

New California stats to share:

Courtesy of the Weather Prediction Center, some final figures are from the lengthy stretch of rainy/snowy weather that hit in the West. I think I mentioned "atmospheric rivers" on tv more than I ever have (because they don't have a strong impact on KS weather). The end result was both beneficial and devastating. The damage will take more time to clean up, but how about and AVERAGE over the entire state of 11". And in the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada, some had close to 15 FEET. Melting that in the spring will not only take time but provide some great water. 

Here's a look at the latest drought map for the West - obviously it's not over yet, but much, much better than a few months ago.

Thanks for spending some time here.

Much-needed moisture and more chances for snow soon

The latest winter system to come rolling through is going to bring some nice moisture to Kansas, but don't expect the drought monitor to change much at all in the coming days/weeks. We expect the system to go right over Kansas, which sounds nice, but the heaviest snow falls north of the storm track. In order for us to take full advantage of what this one has to offer, we would need to be in Nebraska. 

Look at the heavier snows that will fall in Nebraska through Wednesday night:

Much of Kansas will have a chance to get at least .25" of rain (the southwest may not get quite as much), with higher totals in central and eastern Kansas (closer to .50")

I've heard it said that if you aren't getting rain, it's nice to know some who are - like in California. Since November 1st, look at the huge amounts of moisture falling in places that have also struggled against drought conditions. Los Angeles has had about as much rain in the last 75 days as southwest Kansas has had in over a year. 

What's Ahead?

The pattern will continue to be fairly active, but that doesn't always translate to measurable rain/snow. Another system will make its way through the 4 Corners area Friday night and into Saturday. Southwest Kansas may see some very light snow in that timeframe, but accumulations (if there are to be any) wouldn't be much at all. Better chances for light snow will happen down in New Mexico and areas just south of the KS/OK line.

Yet another system will be coming down across the Rockies early next week. You've probably heard me mention before that when low pressure approaches from the north, moisture is usually pretty scarce for Kansas. I don't think we should get our hopes up for this one to be a good source of rain/snow, but there are some pretty big disparities in the computer data. One model is a little more aggressive on snow for Kansas on Monday/Tuesday (next week), while the one shown here is basically just a few hours of light snow and its over.

Colder air (even some Arctic air) looks to be coming soon:

Be prepared for January to wind up cold and the beginning of February to have plenty of chilly weather too. I don't think it will be quite as bad as what we had just prior to Christmas, but safe to say we are soon moving away from the January thaw that has been taking place in much of the country.

Thanks for spending a few minutes here.

No end in sight for the busy weather pattern

It's been unreal to see just how many storms continue to slam the West coast. It feels very much like an El Nino setup - where one storm continues to follow another. Drought continues to dramatically improve, and when this is all over, some areas could be drought-free or back to the lowest level of drought (in California and much of the West coast). 

You can see the low pressure systems lined up and ready to move into the West. Each one behaving in similar ways, heavy rain for the coast and major mountain snows for the Sierras. 

Look at some of the amounts out of California:

And the forecast through January 18th continues to show more rain and snow will be headed into an already drenched West coast. It's also nice to see the snows piling up in Utah and Colorado. If you read the last blog update, you know that's the area that will drain into Lake Powell and Mead. Some experts claim that in order to fully restore lake levels, there would need to be three years of average moisture (with no water being used). Right now, lake levels are up, but only by a slight margin.

So far, Kansas hasn't been on the receiving end of the heavier moisture, but the storm track does remain very active. There's a potential system coming through Sunday night, but unless there's some big shift in the track, it doesn't look like it has all the ingredients to produce much moisture. The biggest issue is where the upper-level winds are coming from - mainly out of the desert and NOT from the Gulf of Mexico. Moisture will be limited at best, so rain chances (and amounts) are pretty slim.

What will follow that system is another storm tracking into the area around Jan. 17/18. That one may have more impact with rain and snow. It drops much farther south before coming into the Plains, which could help to increase the amounts of moisture we are able to squeeze out of it.

Yet a third system may approach Kansas and surrounding areas late in the week (Jan. 19-21).

We are still anticipating a major flip in the weather with much colder air headed back to the Plains late in the month. February could be quite chilly too if early indications are correct. Just look at the map below - and this is only into the first 5 days of February. There might be a price for all of the mild weather we've had so far in January. 

 Have a great day.

Is the drought in the West getting any better? Our next storm arriving soon

The significant storms hitting the West have gained extra attention in recent days and weeks. The "atmospheric river" is not something new (just like "polar vortex"), it's been around for a very long time. However, when someone uses it in the national media, people think it's something made up. This is the time of year for areas in the West to get moisture. Look at this bar graph from Sacramento, CA. Most of their yearly rain comes in December and January. 

Drought isn't something that is wiped away after one storm. It takes a series of events to put water back in reservoirs and lakes. Here's the California drought map, comparing last week to the most recent map that was released on Thursday. Remember, the moisture taken into consideration cuts off Tuesday morning, so the most recent storm that hit won't be included in this latest release. We did see the "exceptional" classification dropped entirely from California (good news), but there's still over 70% in severe drought. 

Some of you have asked if all this rain and snow is helping Lake Mead (just outside of Las Vegas that sits behind the Hoover Dam). It has been at record low levels, and the major river that feeds into it is the Colorado River. However, to a smaller degree, the Virgin River and Green River are factors too. 

Image courtesy of Earth.org

We have to look at the precipitation over the Upper Basin (both rain and snow), and from what I have found, there's been some 200-400% of average precipitation throughout a good part of that area. Focus on western Colorado and eastern Utah. That's the important area. Grand Junction, CO has had just over 2 inches since the beginning of November. While that's good, there's going to need to be a bunch more, and a continuation of it throughout the rest of the winter. 

More action for the West coast:

There will be PLENTY more rain to come for California and the west coast over the next several days. In fact, through Thursday (Jan 12), many areas will get 2-6 inches of additional rainfall. I think it's a safe bet that some areas will be either out of drought entirely or back to the lowest level seen in years. However, that moisture will probably NOT fall over the Upper Basin area for the Colorado River. This next round will be more for the far West, and not the interior regions (like Utah and Colorado)

Next storm for KS:

This one should arrive Wednesday night/Thursday (Jan. 11/12). It's not likely to be a huge storm, but there's a chance we'll get both rain and snow when it gets here. Sad reality is that far western Kansas may not get much at all the way it's expected to track. 

There isn't ANY real cold air behind it, so even though you'll notice the winds out of the north, a quick recovery is likely, and we will be back up around 50 in no time at all.

There may not be much snow at all, given the overall temperature setup. We don't know how much rain will fall with the system, but it won't be enough to move the drought needle.