One storm continues to follow another, just like it was for California a few weeks ago. However, the end result is not going to be what it was in the West. More about that in just a second.
The next system crossing the Plains has some moisture to work with and will bring some beneficial snow (and a little rain), but it will not be as intense as the previous system was for the area. Without going into great detail, there are some factors missing from this low pressure that would make it more impactful. That being said, without any significant wind (should be under 15 mph during much of the storm), this snow should come down and cover some wheat fields. I know that will be crucial for some Kansas farmers. It sure feels like most of the time when we get snow, there's a lot of wind behind it to push it all into the ditch. That won't happen with this storm.
Here's our snowfall forecast:
When we melt that down, actual liquid moisture that will be produced could be close to .25-.50" (see the image below).
We are about one month into winter and here's a quick checkup on where we stand for snow amounts:
The storm arriving next week (January 23-25)
We'll need to keep close tabs on this one. Lately, computer models 4-7 days out suggest storms will track south of Kansas, only to see them wind up actually closer to Kansas. Will that happen with our final storm of January?
Monday, the system will still be in a developing stage to our west, likely producing some good snows in the Rockies.
Tuesday, there are different ideas about what could happen. See for yourself. Computer model #1 has the entire system south of Kansas, leaving us with virtually nothing. The other computer model (#2) would have it farther north and provide more beneficial moisture. Why do we see such variations in the models sometimes? One has to remember that we are predicting something that isn't even reality yet, so until it actually forms, possible outcomes can be quite varied. These are the things that can drive a meteorologist crazy, but makes the job interesting.
There's still a strong signal toward cold in the coming weeks. I don't think the cold for the last week of January is it - it will likely go much colder soon going into February. We keep waiting to see it show up in our 10-day predictions, but we aren't quite there yet.
New California stats to share:
Courtesy of the Weather Prediction Center, some final figures are from the lengthy stretch of rainy/snowy weather that hit in the West. I think I mentioned "atmospheric rivers" on tv more than I ever have (because they don't have a strong impact on KS weather). The end result was both beneficial and devastating. The damage will take more time to clean up, but how about and AVERAGE over the entire state of 11". And in the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada, some had close to 15 FEET. Melting that in the spring will not only take time but provide some great water.
Here's a look at the latest drought map for the West - obviously it's not over yet, but much, much better than a few months ago.
Thanks for spending some time here.
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