If the heat ridge takes over, will the rain ever come back?

After visiting the Ellsworth County fair on Wednesday (July 19th) I found that most people have been pretty pleased with our summer weather thus far. Getting some rain every 3-5 days is nice and the temperatures (compared to many other areas of the country) haven't been too bad. I know some of you reading this need so much more rain before you'd feel good about having a break. The fact of the matter is we are still much better off than we were 3-4 months ago, but to wipe out the drought completely, we have a ways to go. 

What was most concerning to farmers/ranchers is that if we slip into a hotter/drier stretch of weather, will it last for the remainder of summer or are there some breaks mixed in? It sounds like a week of no rain wouldn't be such a bad thing, but many are concerned that if rain stops, it may not start up again. 

Here's the drought picture as of the latest release on Thursday (July 20):

There wasn't much change from last week, but southeast Kansas has had some improvement - albeit minimal. 

We've been able to escape the relentless heat because the center of the upper "high" has been mainly out over the Southwest, allowing for some timely fronts to come out of the north and trigger storms and cool us down. That changes for the final week of July. 

As the center of the high comes right up to Kansas, air tends to sink rather than rise and our chances for rain drop drastically. If that upper high stays for too long, we'd be suffering like many other areas around the country. Fortunately, I don't think that will be the case for extended periods of time. 

And into early August, there should be a chance at some heat relief/more storms as the upper high weakens a bit and slides back to the southwest. We're still in the early stages of looking at August, but I definitely don't see our area being completely void of storms and more needed moisture. 

See the image below for August 3-10. It suggests that our precipitation would be close to average as we move into the new month. Typical rainfall in the first 10 days of August would be close to an inch for most areas in Kansas, and there's reason to be optimistic we'll be back in a pattern of timely rains. 

Thanks for reading. Have a great day.

Summer rain & another pattern shift coming soon

Here's something for you - we are in the halfway point of July and halfway through meteorological summer and heat has been all over the headlines. We've had some of that in Kansas, as one would expect this time of year, but we've been very fortunate in many ways. The rains continue to move this way and look at the map below. Some of the "coolest" weather compared to average has been right here in the central US. 

I would argue it was our turn to have some better weather after terrible drought and searing heat last July. We just couldn't buy a rain event if we tried. 

Phoenix is nearing a record as the heat has been just absolutely relentless across the southern tier of the country. Let's watch and see if a record is set this year. 

At the halfway point of July, here's a map showing rainfall compared to average and amazingly enough, look at southwest Kansas. Those blue and purple areas indicate 2-5 inches ABOVE average rainfall. Areas that seem to be near or below are around Hutchinson and into the Flint Hills. I don't think anybody is still in dire need at the moment, but we still do need more moisture to keep pushing the drought back. 

Here are some numbers showing rainfall for meteorological summer (June 1 - August 31):

Coming up next week, we will get hit with some very hot weather for a few days. Tuesday and Wednesday might be a little rough with the heat, but it's short lived. 

The heat ridge that has been so suffocating over the southern Plains and the Southwest will start to break down and move back westward. It will open the door for some "cooler" weather to arrive late in the week. And if we are so lucky, a chance of more rain will accompany the shifting temperatures. 

As the heat breaks, we are optimistic about some more, much needed rain opportunities that will be coming our way. I would expect we will have storms back in Kansas by Wednesday night, especially for the northern half of the state. How far south the storms go will be figured out as we get closer in time. Thursday and Friday evenings/nights will also have storms too, helping to cool things down. Bottom line, more active weather down the stretch and NO major heat waves developing for our area.

Will that continue for early August? I'll blog about that early next week. Thanks for coming by.

Mark your calendars for these two events. And heating up again soon

Most of you have already heard that we have not one, but TWO solar eclipses coming up that aren't too far from home. However, each one is a little different and the details of each are important if you're planning to make the drive. We are less than 100 days until the annular eclipse happening on October 14. 

What is an "annular" eclipse? - Two times every month, the moon has a point where it is slightly farther from the Earth (called apogee) and a point where it is closest (perigee). This elliptical orbit is the reason why the upcoming two solar eclipses will look different. 

October 14, 2023 (moon is farther away) - As the moon passes between Earth and the sun, about 91% of the sun will be covered (if you are in the path of annularity) which will stretch from Oregon to Texas. (See the map below). If you are wanting to drive, Albuquerque is a roughly 9-10 hour drive from Wichita and would put you right in the middle of the best viewing. Or you may opt for Midland, Texas which is about 8-9 hours from Wichita. 

As the annular eclipse reaches it's "maximum" (which will last for nearly 3 minutes for most locations), you would see a nice ring around the moon, but it won't be completely blocked like in a total eclipse. 

As you look at the map showing where the best viewing will be, remember it will START on the Oregon coast before reaching Texas by early afternoon. 

April 14, 2024 - This is the total solar eclipse that will be visible for a good portion of the country. Because the moon will be slightly closer to the Earth, it will block out the sun and lead to a 360° sunset on the horizon. Some of you saw the one back in 2017 and it was just stunning. I was able to view it from Beatrice and it's a day I won't soon forget. The clouds were a bit problematic, but they did part just long enough to give a nice view of the "ring of fire" - or the Sun's corona, which is only visible to us during a total solar eclipse.

What's up next?

The temperature forecast still doesn't look that bad at all considering how hot it CAN be and seeing how hot Texas has been - we can't really complain. The intense "heat dome" or upper-level high pressure will be in southern Arizona or northern Mexico, which keeps the scorching weather going well to our south. This is not uncommon for July. What is labeled as "active jet" is going to have our focus as this will help to bring more rain and storms to the region. 

A series of disturbances will come straight in from Colorado, PLUS we should have a mid-week front dropping into the area that hangs around for a few days. All of this should lead to additional storms and beneficial rain for areas that have been getting missed. We know there are still so many anxiously awaiting the moisture. I would expect Monday night-Wednesday morning (July 10-12) to have good chances.

Here's a preview of how much rain and where for the second week of July:

Eventually, this will change as the second half of July could be (and probably will be) much warmer. We move into the "dog days of summer" with an upper high pushing back toward the Rockies. This should allow for the heat to build up, and some of us will be back up to near 100°. I'm not sure it will completely shut off the rain, but chances may end up few and far between. 

Here's look at temperatures (compared to average) for the later stages of July. It definitely looks hotter, but again, not really out of the ordinary considering time of year. 

Have a great day.