If the heat ridge takes over, will the rain ever come back?

After visiting the Ellsworth County fair on Wednesday (July 19th) I found that most people have been pretty pleased with our summer weather thus far. Getting some rain every 3-5 days is nice and the temperatures (compared to many other areas of the country) haven't been too bad. I know some of you reading this need so much more rain before you'd feel good about having a break. The fact of the matter is we are still much better off than we were 3-4 months ago, but to wipe out the drought completely, we have a ways to go. 

What was most concerning to farmers/ranchers is that if we slip into a hotter/drier stretch of weather, will it last for the remainder of summer or are there some breaks mixed in? It sounds like a week of no rain wouldn't be such a bad thing, but many are concerned that if rain stops, it may not start up again. 

Here's the drought picture as of the latest release on Thursday (July 20):

There wasn't much change from last week, but southeast Kansas has had some improvement - albeit minimal. 

We've been able to escape the relentless heat because the center of the upper "high" has been mainly out over the Southwest, allowing for some timely fronts to come out of the north and trigger storms and cool us down. That changes for the final week of July. 

As the center of the high comes right up to Kansas, air tends to sink rather than rise and our chances for rain drop drastically. If that upper high stays for too long, we'd be suffering like many other areas around the country. Fortunately, I don't think that will be the case for extended periods of time. 

And into early August, there should be a chance at some heat relief/more storms as the upper high weakens a bit and slides back to the southwest. We're still in the early stages of looking at August, but I definitely don't see our area being completely void of storms and more needed moisture. 

See the image below for August 3-10. It suggests that our precipitation would be close to average as we move into the new month. Typical rainfall in the first 10 days of August would be close to an inch for most areas in Kansas, and there's reason to be optimistic we'll be back in a pattern of timely rains. 

Thanks for reading. Have a great day.