One winter outlook is out - some wild weather ahead

NOAA just released their winter outlook in the last week and there's not much surprise to it if you understand what kind of conditions El Niño brings in winter. Typically, you get a warmer setup for the northern tier of the country and wet conditions across the southern tier. That basically matches what you'll see in their early predictions for December, January, and February (meteorological winter).

Keep in mind that there are two branches to the jet stream (a polar and a subtropical jet). It's the subtropical one that usually gets going and brings the wetter than average conditions to the southern US. 

And we hope that this year is no different because there are so many areas from Kansas to Texas and Louisiana that badly need the rain. 

Storm Team 12 will have a winter forecast coming out, but we will release ours closer to Thanksgiving. 

In the meantime, significant rainfall from Tuesday/Wednesday right over some of the state's worst drought conditions. It shouldn't be a surprise how much of that soaked in, but we also know there was some nice runoff too. This will not erase the drought entirely, but when we see the new map out in November, it will look a bit better over the Flint Hills. 

Final drought map of October looks like this:

November thoughts:

Daylight growing less and average rainfall continues to drop too. On average, northwest Kanas only expects about .50", and it's not much higher for southwest Kansas. Most of central and eastern Kansas averages 1-2"

In looking at lots of different model runs, it seems to me that November will mostly likely have "near average" temperatures when the month is complete. I don't see it being drastically colder or warmer, even though we will have small spells of both in the coming weeks. Despite the month starting off cooler than average, it won't stay that way. 

Moisture - I'm not seeing a big system just yet in the first 10-12 days of the new month. We may have a small system coming through during the first full week of November, and there are hints at something in the week of Thanksgiving. If you go off recent trends, one will think best chances of "above" normal rainfall would be focused in central and eastern Kansas (remember average is about 1-2" in November). The map below suggests southwest Kansas could be in the running for some better moisture. There are still plenty of changes going on with the patterns and the jet stream setup, so model errors can be quite large this time of year. Just sharing these images for full transparency, but reason to remain optimistic that the ongoing El Nino will continue to beef up the precipitation chances for the region. Even just having "average" moisture in a 30-45 day time span would be appreciated. 

Thanks for sharing a few minutes of your time here. 

Back-to-back solar eclipses

The solar eclipse happening on Saturday brings back vivid reminders of the total solar eclipse that went coast to coast in 2017. I vividly remember my boss coming to me weeks before saying "we are sending you to Beatrice, NE to cover it, but we have one problem. Accommodations in that area are full, so we might need you to camp out." That's one of the memories I'd like to forget, but the overall experience of the eclipse itself was amazing. 

This was our accommodations the night prior. A simple camper trailer and a generator. Honestly, I don't even remember what we had for food. And I don't recall getting an ounce of sleep the night before (it was a little windy, the generator was loud, and we had to be up early for the morning news coverage):

Something of this scale (since there hadn't been a coast-to-coast eclipse in a very long time) was covered by hundreds of news outlets. I was amazed at the long row of satellite trucks there and just how far away some of them had traveled to see a 2.5 minute episode of the moon hiding the sun. 

The forecast didn't look too bad, but we were up against clouds approaching from the south. Remember, we were covering this from Beatrice, NE and we knew it would be a race between the overcast reaching us and the eclipse taking place. As it would turn out, the clouds arrived before the eclipse and many folks were wondering if they should pack up and go find a new spot along the totality path. As it would happen, the clouds broke JUST in time for us to view it, making it even more dramatic. The photo shown below was taken the night BEFORE the eclipse, and you could already start to see some of the clouds that would move our way. 

Of course, Millie made the journey with us too. She spent the afternoon in the live truck in between broadcasts. 

The 360° sunset is right at the top of the list of things I'll remember from that day. The temperature cooled a bit, some nearby lights came on, and it seemed as if everyone in the crowd left with a smile. 

Saturday's eclipse is different. It is an ANNULAR eclipse, not a total one like back in 2017. Because the moon's orbit is elliptical around the Earth, there are times when the moon is farther and when it's closer. Since this eclipse happens when the moon is farther from Earth, the entire disk of the sun will NOT be
covered. 

If you traveled to the path of totality, only about 91% of the sun would be covered (as will be the case in Albuquerque, NM. 

Kansas will have about 70% coverage, still pretty amazing, but you won't get what was pictured above. 

Here are the viewing times:

What is fantastic is that we don't have to wait much longer for the next total solar eclipse to give us another dazzling show. And it's going to be just about as close as the one in 2017. If you have some eclipse glasses to view this year's celestial event, be sure to save them for the next one coming in 2024. 

And while you are working on your schedule, mark the calendar for 2045 when a total solar eclipse will come right across Kansas. 

Have a great day. 

Is this the beginning of an El Nino influence and eclipse viewing weather

Thanks for spending a few minutes here catching up on what's next for Kansas weather. Some of you were blessed to get some rain from a cold front on Tuesday (Oct. 3), but even the areas that did get some moisture, it wasn't near enough. We've heard that before.

We could be on track for another system developing right over the Plains Oct 10/11. Recent model data has shown a full-scale low pressure forming, leading to some rain and thunder. Keep a close watch on that as we get closer as there is potential, but will it be here or 100 miles away from here?

Average rainfall for the second week of October would be about two-thirds of an inch for south central Kansas, but in western Kansas it would be closer to about one-third. 

Here's another way to view the chance for rain. The percent chance of getting .50" or more? Odds look pretty good for most of Kansas, but again, we have to wait until the system actually develops to learn more. If the track of the system changes much, it will impact where the thunderstorms setup. 

Yet another system may develop in the 3rd full week of October, but I wouldn't expect it to be anything significant. The map below would suggest any amounts of rain would be light (at best)

If you believe the data we have for the end of the month, another system may form over the western US. Another big low may form west of the Rockies, but that doesn't necessarily mean we will lock in on good rain for Kansas. It does give us hope - and it's better than having a high pressure ridge in the west.

Solar Eclipse - October 14:

Most of you know by now a solar eclipse is happening this year. This is different than the total solar eclipse from 2017 because the moon is FARTHER from Earth, so it will not be able to completely cover the sun's disk. Therefore, there won't be the 360° sunset that you would experience during a total solar eclipse. Even in the path of this annular eclipse, only about 90% of the sun will be covered. The moon's orbit around Earth is elliptical. 

Assuming the weather cooperates, you WILL be able to see it from Kansas. Here's what it should look like from Kansas where about 70% of the sun will be covered:

Now to the weather. If we end up with a storm system in the Plains around Wednesday, it may wobble around for a few days. I would still expect it to depart by Saturday, leaving us with a decent shot at optimal viewing. If you are planning to go to New Mexico or western areas of Texas for viewing, the weather in those areas looks okay too. 

Have a great day.