Is this the beginning of an El Nino influence and eclipse viewing weather

Thanks for spending a few minutes here catching up on what's next for Kansas weather. Some of you were blessed to get some rain from a cold front on Tuesday (Oct. 3), but even the areas that did get some moisture, it wasn't near enough. We've heard that before.

We could be on track for another system developing right over the Plains Oct 10/11. Recent model data has shown a full-scale low pressure forming, leading to some rain and thunder. Keep a close watch on that as we get closer as there is potential, but will it be here or 100 miles away from here?

Average rainfall for the second week of October would be about two-thirds of an inch for south central Kansas, but in western Kansas it would be closer to about one-third. 

Here's another way to view the chance for rain. The percent chance of getting .50" or more? Odds look pretty good for most of Kansas, but again, we have to wait until the system actually develops to learn more. If the track of the system changes much, it will impact where the thunderstorms setup. 

Yet another system may develop in the 3rd full week of October, but I wouldn't expect it to be anything significant. The map below would suggest any amounts of rain would be light (at best)

If you believe the data we have for the end of the month, another system may form over the western US. Another big low may form west of the Rockies, but that doesn't necessarily mean we will lock in on good rain for Kansas. It does give us hope - and it's better than having a high pressure ridge in the west.

Solar Eclipse - October 14:

Most of you know by now a solar eclipse is happening this year. This is different than the total solar eclipse from 2017 because the moon is FARTHER from Earth, so it will not be able to completely cover the sun's disk. Therefore, there won't be the 360° sunset that you would experience during a total solar eclipse. Even in the path of this annular eclipse, only about 90% of the sun will be covered. The moon's orbit around Earth is elliptical. 

Assuming the weather cooperates, you WILL be able to see it from Kansas. Here's what it should look like from Kansas where about 70% of the sun will be covered:

Now to the weather. If we end up with a storm system in the Plains around Wednesday, it may wobble around for a few days. I would still expect it to depart by Saturday, leaving us with a decent shot at optimal viewing. If you are planning to go to New Mexico or western areas of Texas for viewing, the weather in those areas looks okay too. 

Have a great day.