January outlook - Arctic air returns

I've heard several people talk about the lack of cold in December and how it never really felt like Christmas. We've yet to have Arctic air and most are still waiting on the first measurable snow. The lack of snow isn't anything new for December. After all, some years we are waiting until February or March. 

The month of December winds up much warmer than average from the central Plains westward:

January thoughts:

It continues to look like the cold will start cutting loose and moving south. The question is will Kansas be on the western fringe of the Arctic air or in the middle of it? The first week shows signs of being somewhat "near" normal with highs a mix of 30s and 40s. 

I do think heading toward mid-January, odds are better for our first batch of Arctic air to move south into the Plains. This may hit around the 10th of January and go deep into the South, with most areas east of the Rockies experiencing the coldest air.

The entire month isn't cold though, as late January may have some potential warming once again. That's what you see below.

As far as precipitation goes, January doesn't look like it will be a wet month, but much of the state should get some of its first snows of winter. I'd anticipate near or below average moisture through February 1st. 

January average look like this:

Remember one of the first snow storms in 2024? This system dumped heavy snow on a good portion of Kansas and combined with strong north winds to create blizzard conditions. It shut down many roads especially across western Kansas. Some of the highest totals came out of central Kansas. 

Cold & snow still nowhere to be found

The official first day of winter is fast approaching and with the exception of a couple of decent winter storms, the Plains have been pretty much snow-free. The heavy wet snow that fell on November 8/9 mostly covered Colorado with areas on the High Plains receiving 10-20"+

Now in mid-December, look at how much of the US has no snow on the ground at all (less than 20%), but that's not really a total surprise. Last year at this time, only 16% of the country had snow cover. 

3rd full week of December: Temperatures

It still looks milder overall, meaning highs mainly in the 50s with lows in the 20s. This doesn't mean we could have some snow (especially if it comes overnight), but it wouldn't likely stay for long.

Christmas week:

This is why we have been saying for the past two weeks, no white Christmas. It's just too warm! And there's plenty to go around this year. Even the Dakota are likely to be unseasonably warm. I wouldn't be surprised if we are close to 60° on Christmas Day. This will be a gift for some of you.

Precipitation:

Odds don't appear to be in our favor for much moisture between now and late December. There are smaller systems approaching from the West, but if they are able to generate some rainfall, it will more than likely end up south or east of Kansas. 

Will January turn cold? We mentioned this in our winter forecast that January and February have some strong signals of near or colder than average weather. It still looks like that will happen, but the coldest air may not be at the beginning of January - it may come mid/late month. Northwest wind pattern aloft could put much of the central and northern US in much colder weather. 

Winter forecast 2024-25

It might be the least favorite season for many of you, but we know winter is coming and each year, we put together some thoughts about what we are seeing for the months ahead. Each member of Storm Team 12 has made a forecast for snowfall (from first flake to last) - including May (but hers is more for entertainment)

What is "average" snowfall for Kansas? You might be surprised at how much it varies around the state:

• South central: 12.7"
• Dodge City: 19.1"
• Goodland: 30"
• Concordia: 19.3"

The most interesting thing to me is how wet the month of November was for the central US and Kansas, more specifically. Right after Halloween, we had a surplus of rain that arrived with three back-to-back large scale systems that came from the Southwest. The maps below show the observed amounts for Kansas and the region.

We had the wettest November on record even before getting 2/3 of the way through the month. It's entirely possible that kind of setup will show up again before spring arrives, but will it be more heavy rainfall or heavy snow?

You can also bet a northwest wind pattern aloft (which is what Kansas has been in for late November and early December) will result in some big Arctic blasts for January and February. I'm not convinced the remainder of December will have much for prolonged cold (basically it's a few days of it and then it warms up again). But with a weak La Nina influencing the winter pattern, a typical northwest flow of the jet stream is common. It's likely going to result in some really cold air for the eastern half of the country. 

Another way to unlock some clues for the upcoming season is looking at ocean temperatures. Some of the key regions seem to be similar to 2013, but one area that is drastically different is the Gulf of Mexico. I don't know how a VERY warm Gulf impacts our winter snow and rain, but this will be something to watch. Does the warm water keep us from getting more snow? Does this lead to a very wet winter or are the three months ahead dry? We will all know soon enough.

I will say that weak La Nina patterns, by themselves, don't often yield big snows for Kansas. More than 85% of the years we looked at with La Nina, snowfall tends to be below average. And some of those years had REALLY wet fall seasons too (take 1985 for example - Over 13" of rain in the fall, and then the winter had 10.5" of snow)

I love the challenge that comes with trying to understand what the upcoming season has in store. We have so many variables to consider, and every meteorologist will try to find a single "smoking gun" for a nod to what the season has in store, but that just doesn't exist. We will continue to look at what we have and give you the earliest "heads up" when we see something coming in that might be disruptive. In the meantime, it's very quiet and will be for awhile.

Thanks for reading!

Late November/early December thoughts

This remarkable shift toward wetter weather has been a welcome change. I even chatted with one rancher recently who expressed his desire to briefly pause the rain because he was fighting the mud. While some might have that same feeling, we don't want the moisture to stay away for too long. It would be nice to put some more water back in ponds/lakes - the drought is far from over. 

What's next for Kansas? There's good agreement that colder weather is coming for the end of November and early December, but it doesn't look to stay for too long. 

Once the first full week of December rolls around (9th-14th), we are likely seeing the coldest air go east. 

As for precipitation, December isn't going to be like November. It will be near or drier than average from what I can tell. We may have a bunch of smaller scale systems coming through, which could provide small amounts of rainfall (and some snow), but I think our big systems out of the West have ended for now. They will more than likely be back at a later time.  

When it comes to snow, December is (on average) our first chances of 1" or more in most areas. If you want to believe the map below, over the 30 days period (ending on December 30), much of the state would have anywhere from 2-5" - which isn't much when spread over a month. 

Historical Thanksgiving stats for Wichita and Dodge City:

Have a terrific holiday!

The active/rainy pattern continues

We're getting a bit of a pause this week in the rain, but the active pattern returns for our 3rd full week of November. We've made some inroads in pushing back on ongoing drought conditions, but since we were so far behind on rainfall, more will be needed This month has already been historic in terms of rainfall (top 5 wettest for many), and more rain is coming soon.

Here's the preview:

There may be two separate rounds coming across the area, one happening on Monday and then we'll see if a more potent system arrives on Wednesday (Nov. 20th)

And it will also be colder for the 3rd week of November. I would anticipate highs in the 30s/40s, with lows dipping back below freezing:

 

Week of Thanksgiving:

We could potentially have active weather during the holiday week. Please check back for more updates, but for now, look at the images below. One is Sunday, the other is Tuesday, and if they become reality, we may very well have rain and snow potential coming across the central Plains. Lately, we've had several desert Southwest systems, and those have been quite productive for us. It may continue into the holiday week and beyond. We don't know yet how soon it will end, but I do expect a return of western US high pressure, which will bring about a stretch of drier weather.

There's going to be some colder weather at the start of the holiday week, but it may be warming back up in time for Thanksgiving Day. Overall, the holiday week looks near "normal" for temperatures. 

November meteor shower:

The Leonids will peak on November 16/17. Remember, with these celestial events, there's not much to remember about viewing other than finding the darkest spot available to you. We will have an almost full moon, which will make viewing a bit more challenging. However, with a favorable forecast, you might be inclined to check it out.

Here comes the rain - November outlook

A few weeks back, I had posted some images showing how the upcoming 30 days were looking much better for rainfall. I know it was most likely met with some doubt and who could blame you because it seems like the rain has found every path around Kansas possible. 

Take a look at the rainfall forecast through November 7th:

A very generous swath of rainfall should setup from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes, and if the amounts shown on the map verify, it would make the beginning of November MUCH wetter than average (been awhile since we could say that). Western Kansas should get some rain, but amounts will generally be lower with this batch of active weather coming.

What's interesting to see is that the active pattern may continue on for a few more weeks into November. Without getting deep into the meteorological weeds (it can be confusing), we see strong support toward a busy weather pattern deep into November too. This would likely yield low pressure after low pressure tracking across the western US and into the Plains. It's certainly not a guarantee that each one will bring rain, but compared to what we've had lately, this is an improvement. If the systems track near or north of Kansas, our chances for rain and snow will be diminished. If they end up going farther south (like the current one is doing), odds are we will have more favorable moisture. 

Here's the setup as we move into mid-November (week of Nov. 18):

The favored area for low pressure will be across the western US, which gives some optimism that the active weather will continue to move this way and bring potential of rain (again, not necessarily a guarantee). These patterns that I'm showing you don't give us much detail, but rather unlock some clues as to where the large scale highs and lows will form.

Week of Thanksgiving (Nov. 25):

Once again, a favored spot for low pressure will be in the western US. Does this mean we will have a stormy setup for holiday travel? Possible, but specifics won't be known for weeks, but maybe we'll have some moisture coming through the region around the holiday. 

What I don't expect to see is a cold November. Most models suggest that any blast of chilly weather is brief, and overall, the month as a whole is likely above average. 

November normals look like this:

If you are interested, here's a quick preview of December moisture (compared to average). Remember that for most of Kansas, average moisture is only around .75-1.5" (lowest in western Kansas and higher farther east).

Thanks for reading!

What's with the drought map & a look ahead

When the drought map comes out on Thursdays, our team is quick to publish it in many spots (our Storm Team 12 app, Facebook, X, website, and of course all over TV). Since we aren't getting out of drought anytime soon, I thought it was important to address a question that keeps coming up:

Why doesn't the drought map look worse when we are 9-10" below on rainfall? Or, Why doesn't the map represent my area differently?

I wish I had a good, concrete answer for this, but the latest map does leave me a little confused too. I believe the biggest reason the map doesn't show "severe" or "extreme" for south central is because our vegetation health improved a bit after the late September moisture (remember much of central and southern Kansas had .5-1"). Our evaporation rates have slowed lately because of the cooler weather, which might also explain why conditions aren't displayed differently.

Here's what we know about each drought map that is released:

• The weekly cutoff for rain is Tuesday morning (any rain on a Wed/Thu) is not considered
• It always looks back in time - it's not a forecast for anything incoming
• It almost never shows worsening drought by more than one category per week. However, conditions can improve by more than one category if enough rain falls.

Each weekly map builds off the previous week, so in most cases, you probably won't see huge changes week-after-week (again, unless there is major rainfall that occurs). The drought map is NOT a model, but rather a blend of three important factors (which you can actually be a part of - read on):

• Impacts - (agriculture, wildlife, land use, etc)
• Feedback from local experts
• Physical data at different time scales - (winter vs summer, fall vs spring)

Other inputs include streamflow, reservoir levels, evaporative demand, temperatures, and vegetation health. Most of us look strictly at rainfall numbers, but there isn't just one piece of this that tells the whole story.

If you'd like to submit photos and input to the drought map authors, you can do so by emailing: droughtmonitor@unl.edu

What's next??

My last update suggested the upcoming 30-45 days were encouraging. I still feel that way about the period between Halloween and Thanksgiving. Most models indicate better potential of low-pressure systems coming into the western US, which would at least yield rain chances (something we haven't had much of at all lately). Over the past month, it's not that we are getting missed by the rain - there just hasn't been any rain to forecast. I'm not making promises that drought improves drastically, but it would be nice to just get some rain again, and I think those chances could be more timely moving into November. Be sure to check back. 

Thanks for reading!

Our weather should get more interesting soon

An extremely boring stretch of weather for Kansas might be coming to a close soon, but is the excitement going to be on big temperatures changes, or rain? Maybe both?

We are hitting the three-week mark (consecutive days) with no rain. Historically, we've had some very long periods with no rain in the fall season (September 1 - November 30). In fact, just last year we had some notable stretches with no moisture. 

• Dodge City - 38 days in a row, no rain Oct. 4-Nov 10
• Wichita - 20 days
• Goodland - 31 days (no rain at all in September)

The most days-in-a-row for no rain at all in the fall season is closer to 50 and 60 days (see the image below). We aren't even close to that & hopefully won't be anytime soon.

Is the rain coming? There hasn't been anything even close to our area for weeks now, which isn't surprising. Back when we put out the October outlook, we suggested the first half of the month would be dry as a bone.

Note that the weekend of October 18/19/20, we finally see a system coming out of the West. There is a noticeable buckle in the jet stream (low pressure). It would be better if that thing set up farther south (it would mean more rain for KS), but as it looks now, it should still be enough to get the chances for moisture back over the Plains states.

What's of interest moving into late October and early November is that some of our data suggests a stronger likelihood of low pressure setting up across the West (a trough). That's what we will need to set things in motion for more timely rains. We don't want to see this go north of Kansas, otherwise we could get missed on the rain once again. 

And early November may have some rain potential too with a series of weak low-pressure systems out of the West.

While I'm not promising huge amounts of rain, the 30/45-day outlook through November 18th looks like central and eastern Kansas may be the favored areas for better moisture. 

For what it's worth, one model is showing anywhere from an inch to possibly 3 inches of rain (total) through mid-November. These longer range projections are difficult to put a lot of extra merit into, but when you have several different sets of data showing similar conditions and outcomes, there has to be some value in passing this along. 

Have a great day!