The active/rainy pattern continues

We're getting a bit of a pause this week in the rain, but the active pattern returns for our 3rd full week of November. We've made some inroads in pushing back on ongoing drought conditions, but since we were so far behind on rainfall, more will be needed This month has already been historic in terms of rainfall (top 5 wettest for many), and more rain is coming soon.

Here's the preview:

There may be two separate rounds coming across the area, one happening on Monday and then we'll see if a more potent system arrives on Wednesday (Nov. 20th)

And it will also be colder for the 3rd week of November. I would anticipate highs in the 30s/40s, with lows dipping back below freezing:

 

Week of Thanksgiving:

We could potentially have active weather during the holiday week. Please check back for more updates, but for now, look at the images below. One is Sunday, the other is Tuesday, and if they become reality, we may very well have rain and snow potential coming across the central Plains. Lately, we've had several desert Southwest systems, and those have been quite productive for us. It may continue into the holiday week and beyond. We don't know yet how soon it will end, but I do expect a return of western US high pressure, which will bring about a stretch of drier weather.

There's going to be some colder weather at the start of the holiday week, but it may be warming back up in time for Thanksgiving Day. Overall, the holiday week looks near "normal" for temperatures. 

November meteor shower:

The Leonids will peak on November 16/17. Remember, with these celestial events, there's not much to remember about viewing other than finding the darkest spot available to you. We will have an almost full moon, which will make viewing a bit more challenging. However, with a favorable forecast, you might be inclined to check it out.

Here comes the rain - November outlook

A few weeks back, I had posted some images showing how the upcoming 30 days were looking much better for rainfall. I know it was most likely met with some doubt and who could blame you because it seems like the rain has found every path around Kansas possible. 

Take a look at the rainfall forecast through November 7th:

A very generous swath of rainfall should setup from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes, and if the amounts shown on the map verify, it would make the beginning of November MUCH wetter than average (been awhile since we could say that). Western Kansas should get some rain, but amounts will generally be lower with this batch of active weather coming.

What's interesting to see is that the active pattern may continue on for a few more weeks into November. Without getting deep into the meteorological weeds (it can be confusing), we see strong support toward a busy weather pattern deep into November too. This would likely yield low pressure after low pressure tracking across the western US and into the Plains. It's certainly not a guarantee that each one will bring rain, but compared to what we've had lately, this is an improvement. If the systems track near or north of Kansas, our chances for rain and snow will be diminished. If they end up going farther south (like the current one is doing), odds are we will have more favorable moisture. 

Here's the setup as we move into mid-November (week of Nov. 18):

The favored area for low pressure will be across the western US, which gives some optimism that the active weather will continue to move this way and bring potential of rain (again, not necessarily a guarantee). These patterns that I'm showing you don't give us much detail, but rather unlock some clues as to where the large scale highs and lows will form.

Week of Thanksgiving (Nov. 25):

Once again, a favored spot for low pressure will be in the western US. Does this mean we will have a stormy setup for holiday travel? Possible, but specifics won't be known for weeks, but maybe we'll have some moisture coming through the region around the holiday. 

What I don't expect to see is a cold November. Most models suggest that any blast of chilly weather is brief, and overall, the month as a whole is likely above average. 

November normals look like this:

If you are interested, here's a quick preview of December moisture (compared to average). Remember that for most of Kansas, average moisture is only around .75-1.5" (lowest in western Kansas and higher farther east).

Thanks for reading!

What's with the drought map & a look ahead

When the drought map comes out on Thursdays, our team is quick to publish it in many spots (our Storm Team 12 app, Facebook, X, website, and of course all over TV). Since we aren't getting out of drought anytime soon, I thought it was important to address a question that keeps coming up:

Why doesn't the drought map look worse when we are 9-10" below on rainfall? Or, Why doesn't the map represent my area differently?

I wish I had a good, concrete answer for this, but the latest map does leave me a little confused too. I believe the biggest reason the map doesn't show "severe" or "extreme" for south central is because our vegetation health improved a bit after the late September moisture (remember much of central and southern Kansas had .5-1"). Our evaporation rates have slowed lately because of the cooler weather, which might also explain why conditions aren't displayed differently.

Here's what we know about each drought map that is released:

• The weekly cutoff for rain is Tuesday morning (any rain on a Wed/Thu) is not considered
• It always looks back in time - it's not a forecast for anything incoming
• It almost never shows worsening drought by more than one category per week. However, conditions can improve by more than one category if enough rain falls.

Each weekly map builds off the previous week, so in most cases, you probably won't see huge changes week-after-week (again, unless there is major rainfall that occurs). The drought map is NOT a model, but rather a blend of three important factors (which you can actually be a part of - read on):

• Impacts - (agriculture, wildlife, land use, etc)
• Feedback from local experts
• Physical data at different time scales - (winter vs summer, fall vs spring)

Other inputs include streamflow, reservoir levels, evaporative demand, temperatures, and vegetation health. Most of us look strictly at rainfall numbers, but there isn't just one piece of this that tells the whole story.

If you'd like to submit photos and input to the drought map authors, you can do so by emailing: droughtmonitor@unl.edu

What's next??

My last update suggested the upcoming 30-45 days were encouraging. I still feel that way about the period between Halloween and Thanksgiving. Most models indicate better potential of low-pressure systems coming into the western US, which would at least yield rain chances (something we haven't had much of at all lately). Over the past month, it's not that we are getting missed by the rain - there just hasn't been any rain to forecast. I'm not making promises that drought improves drastically, but it would be nice to just get some rain again, and I think those chances could be more timely moving into November. Be sure to check back. 

Thanks for reading!

Our weather should get more interesting soon

An extremely boring stretch of weather for Kansas might be coming to a close soon, but is the excitement going to be on big temperatures changes, or rain? Maybe both?

We are hitting the three-week mark (consecutive days) with no rain. Historically, we've had some very long periods with no rain in the fall season (September 1 - November 30). In fact, just last year we had some notable stretches with no moisture. 

• Dodge City - 38 days in a row, no rain Oct. 4-Nov 10
• Wichita - 20 days
• Goodland - 31 days (no rain at all in September)

The most days-in-a-row for no rain at all in the fall season is closer to 50 and 60 days (see the image below). We aren't even close to that & hopefully won't be anytime soon.

Is the rain coming? There hasn't been anything even close to our area for weeks now, which isn't surprising. Back when we put out the October outlook, we suggested the first half of the month would be dry as a bone.

Note that the weekend of October 18/19/20, we finally see a system coming out of the West. There is a noticeable buckle in the jet stream (low pressure). It would be better if that thing set up farther south (it would mean more rain for KS), but as it looks now, it should still be enough to get the chances for moisture back over the Plains states.

What's of interest moving into late October and early November is that some of our data suggests a stronger likelihood of low pressure setting up across the West (a trough). That's what we will need to set things in motion for more timely rains. We don't want to see this go north of Kansas, otherwise we could get missed on the rain once again. 

And early November may have some rain potential too with a series of weak low-pressure systems out of the West.

While I'm not promising huge amounts of rain, the 30/45-day outlook through November 18th looks like central and eastern Kansas may be the favored areas for better moisture. 

For what it's worth, one model is showing anywhere from an inch to possibly 3 inches of rain (total) through mid-November. These longer range projections are difficult to put a lot of extra merit into, but when you have several different sets of data showing similar conditions and outcomes, there has to be some value in passing this along. 

Have a great day!

Here we go again & talking October frost

The map below sums up everything you need to know about our weather in the short term. Dry dry dry! Gee, haven't we had enough of long stretches without rain? It's becoming the hallmark of Kansas weather lately - a little rain and then a month without it. This is a forecast for rain through October 5th:

It's really not uncommon to have long, dry spells in the winter because the humidity is very low. I was surprised to see Dodge City had their longest stretch with no measurable rain in April and early May of this year. 

The overall pattern won't be much help for generating beneficial moisture for the central Plains. What will be most common through the first 10-12 days of the new month is a ridge of high pressure over the Rockies that will keep the weather in Kansas very quiet. (and warm too)

Take note of the image below for October 10th - what do we see? Once again, it's high pressure dominant for the central Plains which is not going to be good for generating widespread rains.

It could be that we wait until later in October for our weather to get more interesting. Most models start showing low pressure in the western US that could be better rain makers. 

I just don't see any way that October is a change from the dry weather patterns. The month as a whole will more than likely be below average on rainfall. 

Here are the October average for different locations in Kansas. Overall, daylight and temperatures keep going down

And in case you are wondering, the average first fall frost in western Kansas tends to happen in early October, but given the warmth that we are seeing across the board, it's very doubtful that we would have an early one this year. 

A missed opportunity but some rain is coming

It was quite discouraging to watch Francine develop in the western Gulf of Mexico and then suddenly turn northeast - taking it out of the running for Kansas pretty quickly. I don't know what the exact percentage is of western Gulf storms that impact our area, but it's very low (under 10%). As recently as 2015, tropical storm Bill developed in the western Gulf and then tracked across Texas and Oklahoma. This is about as close as we've come to a tropical system lately. 

All of the heavy rain remained southeast of Kansas, but it was much closer to Kansas than Francine will be.

Even though we aren't getting the rain we need right now, you have to be glad we aren't experiencing the heat wave record that Phoenix is setting this summer. The current streak is 108 consecutive days of 100°, beating the old record of 76 days. It's hard to wrap your mind around the idea that 100 degree weather has happened every single day since May 27. I'd be packing my bag and moving. 

Everyone says "but it's a dry heat". That's a fact, but a prolonged spell like that takes its toll on literally everything and is often quite deadly. It will finally end next week (3rd full week of September) This is directly tied to the pattern change we will see coming into the central Plains too.

Rain potential increasing:

The next 2-3 weeks should be helpful for Kansas in getting some rain here at home. The 3rd full week of September will be characterized by a large low pressure system in the western US and much higher humidity than we've had recently. It's quite possible this system will come at us in different chunks (or waves). Odds are slightly better for central and western Kansas to get the heavier rainfall, but I would think everyone in Kansas should get something in the next wave of active weather. 

Here's the 5 day rainfall outlook (compared to average) for the 3rd week of the month:

And here's the last week of September (again rainfall compared to average):

Meteorologists in Kansas will also talk of a "second season" of severe weather. Take a look at Storm Prediction Center's "severe weather probabilities" for mid-September. Even though there's not a bullseye, it's not uncommon to have severe storms as the jet stream begins to strengthen heading into fall. 

Early frost this year?

I don't think that's likely to happen. October is showing signs of near or warmer than average, so the upcoming patterns don't strike me as having an early frost. Here's the overall outlook for much of October.

I stumbled on this graphic the other day. It's the last 365 days of rain (compared to normal) and you can clearly see who's been getting good rains and the areas left out. It's interesting just how spotty the "better" rainfall has been. 

La Nina Update - things are moving SLOW

It's been a little while since we touched on some of the details of El Nino and La Nina. Remember, they are contributors to our longer-term weather patterns that can unlock clues for the months ahead. El Nino is when the water along the equator in the Pacific is warmer than average - La Nina is just the opposite. See the examples below:

The top image is La Nina with the bottom one showing the El Nino example:

We have just emerged from a short-term El Nino (lasted only about a year). Prior to that, we had a 3 year La Nina that ended in early 2023.

Notice the colder water that is just below the surface - upwelling continues and there is a better than 70% chance that by late fall, we will be in a La Nina. As that colder water surfaces, easterly winds will push some of it toward the central Pacific Ocean.

What has changed recently is that the onset of La Nina is taking longer than earlier thought. And there's even some question as to how strong it will get before it starts dissipating again in early 2025. Take a look at the series of images below, starting with October and ending in February. You'll see the gradual progression of the colder water (blue colors) migrating from east to west. We should reach La Nina status by the end of the year, but when you look at February, already the blue is fading off the map. That would indicate a warming of the water in that region.

October:

November:

December:

February:

What generally happens in a La Nina winter for Kansas? Generally, they tend to favor slightly colder weather overall, but of course there are exceptions. The winter of 1999/2000 had a strong La Nina and ended up warmer than average. The winter of 2011/12 was warmer than average, and it was a moderate La Nina. There is a tendency for the northern jet to be stronger (ushering in the colder blasts), while most of the better moisture gets shunted off to the east of Kansas. It doesn't mean the entire winter is dry and snow-free, but I think it's a very, very low chance of much drought easing this winter given the oncoming La Nina setup.

Thanks for reading

Have we had our last widespread 100s

It is certainly looking that way based on trends we are seeing for the next week and beyond. It's not 100% set in stone yet, but with each passing day that we don't hit the century mark, the odds go up that we are done with 100s (on a widespread scale). And recent rains can help lower chances of hitting 100 too.

Here's where the latest count stands as of Friday, August 15. Most of the state has had an "average" number of 100s this summer:

Here's why we think our days with triple digits may be behind us now. Take a look at where the heat ridge is focused into our third week of August. 

If we are NOT hitting 100° with the high right in our backyard, once it begins to shift away from Kansas in early September, we should be cooling even more:

I've even seen some information lately suggesting we go into a cool period just in time for this year's Kansas State Fair. Wouldn't it be nice if we had a stretch of 70s and 80s for the fair? It sure seems like we always have a "chilly" couple of days and then at least a few really warm afternoons. Stay tuned for more about that.

I do have this for you - an early look at September (the month as a whole) - might be near or slightly cooler than average. Again, it's early, but just some of the stuff that we are looking at behind the scenes. Most models are terrible at picking up on cool weather, so the fact that we have something that looks like this gives me reason to think next month might be pretty nice and fall-like.

Downbursts:

We had some incredible photos come in on the night of August 14th (Wednesday) of some downbursts that hit near Bennington. Perhaps you've heard them referred to as microbursts. They are one in the same and often do damage that is comparable to a week tornado. First of all, we can usually forecast the environment in which they form. We can detect them on radar, but in many cases, the damage is already done by the time they are detected. Take a look at the two photos - same storm, but from slightly different angles. (photos courtesy Amanda Raccagno and Tara Nisbeth)

I can't recall photos that showcase a downburst as good as the ones shown here. Usually, the photos are from much farther away and even more blurry. However, you can clearly see the descending ball of wind, and something has to give when they hit, and it's never the ground. That wind spreads out in all different directions.

Downbursts are more common in summer (and in the desert Southwest) when the lowest 5,000-7,000 feet of the atmosphere are relatively dry. That can favor downbursts with some of the precipitation evaporating as the air descends quickly below the base of the storm. As for how widespread the damage can be underneath of the downburst, it varies. I've seen some that are only a city block wide, and others that can be a mile or better. 

Have a great day!