Our weather should get more interesting soon

An extremely boring stretch of weather for Kansas might be coming to a close soon, but is the excitement going to be on big temperatures changes, or rain? Maybe both?

We are hitting the three-week mark (consecutive days) with no rain. Historically, we've had some very long periods with no rain in the fall season (September 1 - November 30). In fact, just last year we had some notable stretches with no moisture. 

• Dodge City - 38 days in a row, no rain Oct. 4-Nov 10
• Wichita - 20 days
• Goodland - 31 days (no rain at all in September)

The most days-in-a-row for no rain at all in the fall season is closer to 50 and 60 days (see the image below). We aren't even close to that & hopefully won't be anytime soon.

Is the rain coming? There hasn't been anything even close to our area for weeks now, which isn't surprising. Back when we put out the October outlook, we suggested the first half of the month would be dry as a bone.

Note that the weekend of October 18/19/20, we finally see a system coming out of the West. There is a noticeable buckle in the jet stream (low pressure). It would be better if that thing set up farther south (it would mean more rain for KS), but as it looks now, it should still be enough to get the chances for moisture back over the Plains states.

What's of interest moving into late October and early November is that some of our data suggests a stronger likelihood of low pressure setting up across the West (a trough). That's what we will need to set things in motion for more timely rains. We don't want to see this go north of Kansas, otherwise we could get missed on the rain once again. 

And early November may have some rain potential too with a series of weak low-pressure systems out of the West.

While I'm not promising huge amounts of rain, the 30/45-day outlook through November 18th looks like central and eastern Kansas may be the favored areas for better moisture. 

For what it's worth, one model is showing anywhere from an inch to possibly 3 inches of rain (total) through mid-November. These longer range projections are difficult to put a lot of extra merit into, but when you have several different sets of data showing similar conditions and outcomes, there has to be some value in passing this along. 

Have a great day!