C'mon rain, where are you?

I've been taking some heat for my forecasts calling for "wetter than average weather" and it just doesn't seem to show up. I know there are concerned farmers, ranchers, gardeners, etc. worried about a hot summer coming on if we don't get our predicted spring rains. 

Let me assure you that I'm equally agitated, but I understand that some of you reading this make a living off the land and when it doesn't rain, you're in trouble. There's no forecasting method that will be 100% perfect, but all I'm attempting to do is showcase what we are seeing in the patterns and give you as much information as I can, without stirring up too much false hope. 

With that being said, remember that March (on average) is not a very wet month at all. Most of us only average about 1-2 inches of moisture over the 31-day period. If we look back at the 60-day rainfall/melted snow too from January 26-March 26, the big yellow area over central and southern Kansas is showing us about 2-3" below average moisture. 

Areas from Hays on north have had some moisture, but only about an inch above average for the 60-day period. 

I received an email from someone wanting to know if we were already seeing the oncoming La Nina influence on our weather patterns. The short answer is "no" - and I don't think we will see that until June at the earliest, but perhaps even later than that if trends hold. Just compare the two maps below. The top one is current, while the one right underneath is from February 1st. Take note of the drop in dark shades of red are occurring along the equator. 

The collapse of El Nino is well underway, and it is quite unusual to see how quickly it's fading. Normally, it takes a good 6-10 months (or more) to transition out of one before the other begins to take hold. 

April Outlook:

Remember that April is not the wettest month of the year, but for most of the state (in a typical year), we double our moisture compared to March. The warmer weather allows for more moisture, but as we all know, too many things can go wrong, and our area gets left high and dry. If you are wondering about "last spring freeze", we are almost there. We still have a chance to see some chilly weather in the first week of April, but beyond that, it looks like we are warming back up again. I don't see a big cold snap happening in late April.

Here's one model for the upcoming month - not the best of news for southern Kansas, but we will still get some rain. 

Before you get too discouraged, take a look at this seasonal outlook lumping April/May/June all into one map. Will all of this come in one or two storm systems? The distribution is hard to pin down, but even if we get major runoff from one big system, we need that to put water back in ponds, reservoirs, and lakes. 

I think it's overdone, but it is not the only model we have access to that "hints" at decent spring moisture. And if you think I'm just pulling this from thin air, see what our partners at the Climate Prediction Center have released for a spring outlook on moisture AND drought. In Kansas, the outlook suggest drought removal or significant easing of it. We'll take it

And then there is this (for April, May, and June):

Thanks for stopping by!

First look at eclipse weather - tornado numbers

The total solar eclipse is quickly approaching and just like the last one in August 2017, this one will likely get the same amount of attention. However, if the weather doesn't cooperate, it won't be good for anyone. Travel to the path of totality is just a bit farther for most of us that want to get there, and as soon as we can, we will try and highlight which locations might be the best for viewing. 

Details are still fuzzy since we are a few weeks out, but some of the models out to that date are showing low pressure over the central Plains and to the west. Assuming this is correct, we might have a cloud cover problem around Kansas, but areas near the path of totality could be in better shape. This is preliminary, but initial looks are somewhat concerning for local viewing.

Here's another look at the potential setup for the period leading into April 8th. This would be problematic for anyone wanting to view the eclipse in Texas. Lower pressures in the 4 Corners area could have clouds and precipitation developing in the southern Plains. Don't change plans yet, but we do have potential active weather coming through the region during that time frame.

The umbra (shadow from the moon) is 122 miles wide, and it will be moving at over 1500 mph. It would move even faster if it weren't for the fact the Earth and moon are rotating in the same direction. In the image below, the penumbra (area within the purple ring) will see some part of the eclipse. That's roughly 5100 miles wide (from near Alaska to Panama). It's important to note that at no point (outside of the path of totality) would it be acceptable to look directly at the sun during any portion of the eclipse. 

How will the eclipse look from western Kansas? Here's a preview of how much of the sun will be covered from Goodland's position.

And from Salina:

And Wichita:

Severe weather season is here: Latest tornado tally across the United States shows that the pace is right on target for what you might expect at this point in the season. The red line represents what is happening in 2024, while the black line is considered "average".

As we approach the end of March, the highest probability of tornadoes stretches from Oklahoma/Texas to Georgia. As you might expect, that area spreads west and north as the spring moves forward.

Thanks for reading!

Severe weather thoughts - April rain coming

The season is here and after two EF2 tornadoes in northeast Kansas, our severe weather special comes at a good time while we are gearing up for the season. It will air Saturday night at 10:35 (KWCH), and then you can also catch it online.

I was tasked with coming up with a severe weather outlook. These are really hard to do because if your house ends up getting hit, you'll remember the season as "bad". And then there's the question, what makes the season bad? Is it 50 tornadoes, 100, etc.? The average for Kansas in a season is around 80. Since 2000, here's are the years where the tornado count has been higher than average:

Out of the 14 years (since 2000), there are 4 years where El Nino was occurring in the Pacific. That was 2019, 2016, 2015, 2010. 

Here's what we are in now:

Notice the orange color within the highlighted box. That's water that is about 1.4°C above average, making this an El Nino spring season. But you also have to look just outside of that highlighted area and see the "cooler" water showing up - that's the oncoming La Nina that we will be talking about very soon (maybe as soon as this summer). If we take this one step further and consider the years where El Nino was going away and La Nina was coming on, here's what we find:

There is NOT necessarily a correlation to a high number of tornadoes when El Nino is going away and La Nina is coming on. The El Nino in 1998 was particularly strong, and it was quickly replaced with a La Nina, and that year ended up with slightly fewer than average tornadoes. 

El Nino has been a helpful driver of more rain/snow for the Plains this winter, but it hasn't completely eliminated the drought yet. Take a look at what El Nino springs have looked like in years past - the purple is good - it means above average moisture. Let's look at 2015, 2016, 2019:+

May 2015:

May 2016:

May 2019:

I'm not saying it's a guarantee, but there are many more cases of "wet" springs with El Nino than dry ones, so I think odds are in our favor that this upcoming spring will be at least average moisture, but for many areas, it should be wetter than average. See the early April rainfall outlook at the end of this post.

Rain is coming!!

The 3rd full week of March (18-22) doesn't look that promising, but once we get beyond that timeframe, odds look better for moisture. Here's a 30 day preview of March 24-April 24:

And for the entire month of April, one set of model data looks like this:

I know it's just one model, but we've been expecting a turn toward some wetter conditions for the central US, and I believe we are just getting there. What should be a continual march of low pressure systems in from the West should begin soon and continue deep into April. Will this be the uptick in severe weather? Stay tuned.

A mix of more active and dry weather ahead

We will have another chance of some active weather coming at the end of our second week of March, but that might be short lived before it dries out again. 

The first drought map out in March looks like this (remember it doesn't take into account rain from the recent system). Sadly, we are moving in the wrong direction. We are back up to 59% in drought - which is up from 52% the previous week.

The big system shaping up around March 14/15 will be slow moving, and if we can get this to position in just the right place, it might mean more beneficial rain. The upper low will try to separate from the main flow of air aloft, and if it succeeds in doing that, it will wobble around for many days. That's something to watch for just days from now. As of this writing, the low will form and stall somewhere near the 4 Corners area - that's not a bad spot for it to be, but if it ends up farther west, we are in trouble.

This is a complex scenario because the rain could split and go around Kansas. I just think we should keep expectations low at this stage because a front may shove the higher humidity east of Kansas, and we'd be left with a whole bunch of nothing. We need to see where the upper low will establish itself.

Rainfall compared to average - Ending March 20:

We may hit a drier spell in the 3rd full week of the month, but I wouldn't let this be too alarming considering everything I've look at suggests more moisture should find its way back to the region late in the month.

Early April Rainfall:

Temperatures:

Two different models into late March bring chillier weather back. It's too late in the season for Arctic air (you can breathe a sigh there), but if these maps hold up, I'd prepare for highs in the 40s and low 50s. That's not really earth-shattering, but it might not be what you were hoping for as we know spring begins on March 19th.

Tornado update - as of March 8:

We've had some encounters with brief severe weather in Kansas. As Severe Weather Awareness Week ends, here's a look at the US tornado count compared to "average" and recent years. There's nothing alarming in what we see right now. The current count is the red line and black is normal or average. There's no way to draw conclusions from what we've seen so far to what's next, but we are putting together our severe weather special that airs Saturday, March 16th at 10:35PM. We will try to unlock a few clues as to what we think the upcoming season has in store for the Plains.