C'mon rain, where are you?

I've been taking some heat for my forecasts calling for "wetter than average weather" and it just doesn't seem to show up. I know there are concerned farmers, ranchers, gardeners, etc. worried about a hot summer coming on if we don't get our predicted spring rains. 

Let me assure you that I'm equally agitated, but I understand that some of you reading this make a living off the land and when it doesn't rain, you're in trouble. There's no forecasting method that will be 100% perfect, but all I'm attempting to do is showcase what we are seeing in the patterns and give you as much information as I can, without stirring up too much false hope. 

With that being said, remember that March (on average) is not a very wet month at all. Most of us only average about 1-2 inches of moisture over the 31-day period. If we look back at the 60-day rainfall/melted snow too from January 26-March 26, the big yellow area over central and southern Kansas is showing us about 2-3" below average moisture. 

Areas from Hays on north have had some moisture, but only about an inch above average for the 60-day period. 

I received an email from someone wanting to know if we were already seeing the oncoming La Nina influence on our weather patterns. The short answer is "no" - and I don't think we will see that until June at the earliest, but perhaps even later than that if trends hold. Just compare the two maps below. The top one is current, while the one right underneath is from February 1st. Take note of the drop in dark shades of red are occurring along the equator. 

The collapse of El Nino is well underway, and it is quite unusual to see how quickly it's fading. Normally, it takes a good 6-10 months (or more) to transition out of one before the other begins to take hold. 

April Outlook:

Remember that April is not the wettest month of the year, but for most of the state (in a typical year), we double our moisture compared to March. The warmer weather allows for more moisture, but as we all know, too many things can go wrong, and our area gets left high and dry. If you are wondering about "last spring freeze", we are almost there. We still have a chance to see some chilly weather in the first week of April, but beyond that, it looks like we are warming back up again. I don't see a big cold snap happening in late April.

Here's one model for the upcoming month - not the best of news for southern Kansas, but we will still get some rain. 

Before you get too discouraged, take a look at this seasonal outlook lumping April/May/June all into one map. Will all of this come in one or two storm systems? The distribution is hard to pin down, but even if we get major runoff from one big system, we need that to put water back in ponds, reservoirs, and lakes. 

I think it's overdone, but it is not the only model we have access to that "hints" at decent spring moisture. And if you think I'm just pulling this from thin air, see what our partners at the Climate Prediction Center have released for a spring outlook on moisture AND drought. In Kansas, the outlook suggest drought removal or significant easing of it. We'll take it

And then there is this (for April, May, and June):

Thanks for stopping by!