Peek into July - there's some rain

Rain is a good thing, especially when it comes in the month of July. There are some strong signals that we are going to be getting some rain at the beginning of the month, but if it gets ridiculously hot, it may not be enough to get us very far.

As we typically do, just a reminder about what is "normal" or average for July. The average temperatures don't change much, and we don't really lose that much daylight between the beginning and end of the month. 

Taken at face value, most models give some rainfall to Kansas over the next 10 days that should prove helpful, but not drought ending. 

If you read in my last update about the center of high pressure and where that thing goes in the coming months, you know that we do have some concern it will be nearby in mid-late July. I would expect our hottest part of the month will be during that time, so the first 8-10 days of the new month might be a cake walk compared to later on.

Here's your rainfall compared to average for early July:

Moving into mid-July, I expect another pattern shift where the upper level high will be much closer to the Plains, effectively shutting off the better rain potential (but not ending it completely).

And July as a whole could wind up looking like this for rainfall around the Plains:

Perhaps what's driving the "above" average moisture for Kansas is what we get at the beginning of the month, as mid-late July could be quite dry. 

As July continues on, I think we will see typical July weather as it gets hotter with the heat dome at least nearby for the 2nd and 3rd weeks of the month. Keep in mind, even though we do see a sizeable amount of yellow and orange, some of what is leading to "above" average temperatures are the overnight lows staying warmer - which of course will also help to skew the temperatures warmer. 

Have a great day!

Will we keep the worst of the heat away for now?

Welcome to summer! I still get nervous this time of year because after enduring the brutal heat of 2011 and 2012, there's that underlying concern that it could happen (or will happen) again. I think most of us would prefer to forget those couple of summer that nearly killed all of our vegetation. Crops did poorly and the drought was even worse than what's ongoing. 

This was the drought map from early July 2012:

100% of the state was in drought, with 80% in severe to exceptional status. 

What to watch for:

I know it's overused, but the heat dome is simply high pressure that blocks or squashes most rain that comes anywhere close to it. Air sinks and warms underneath of the high itself, so if we can identify where it will position itself, we can usually make a good assumption that it will trend toward dry and much hotter conditions. Will that happen this year?

In the shorter term, the answer is no. I look for the high to be in the Southwest to finish off June, but it could meander back toward Kansas in early July. The map below has the high near Oklahoma and northern Texas, but not right over Kansas. We will still get hot in this kind of setup, but it doesn't stay in that spot for weeks on end. I would say through at least the 4th of July, any encounters of 100 heat will likely be somewhat short lived. 

If we end up on the eastern edge of the "heat dome", there's at least some potential of rain coming in from Colorado and a little "cooler" weather. The northeast side of a heat ridge usually offers up some threats of storms, which of course helps to knock the intense heat down. Kansas might be in that sweet spot over the next few weeks, so we anticipate at least some occasional rounds of storms that form on the eastern edge of the high.

If we look out to mid/late July, things may get quite hot with rainfall in very short supply. I don't think we are out of the woods by any means because this heat ridge may spend a few weeks right over Kansas.

What does the overall rain projections look like for the next 30-40 days? Probably enough rain to just get by, but I don't think the next month or so looks overly wet - not likely wet enough to keep erasing drought conditions. Western Kansas average rainfall in July is 3", while for central and south central, it is about 4". Given the map below, we should expect maybe 2-3" over the entire month. 

A new satellite is about to take flight:

The kind of weather satellite that we use so frequently travel about 22,000 miles above the Earth's surface. At that altitude, they are sync with the orbit of the Earth, so they are able to monitor the same spots of the globe day and night. There are other satellites that travel closer to the Earth's surface, but they don't see the same areas 24/7. There are sensors onboard that will give us better imaging of real-time lightning flashes in thunderstorms. 

What's most unique about the satellite that is set to go into orbit on Tuesday, June 25 is that it will have equipment to study the sun's corona. This is what we can see with our own eyes during a total solar eclipse, but this new satellite may be better able to identify when there could be strong geomagnetic storms headed this way. It wasn't that long ago we just had a strong one that interfered with GPS technology. The image below is what the coronagraph looks like. 

It will block out the sun while it focuses on the flares coming from it. 

Thanks for reading!

Rain winding down for harvest & biking

A friend of mine asked me to blog about weather conditions for the upcoming Bike Across Kansas that takes place in the second full week of June. Traditionally, one might expect intense heat, humidity, wind, and storms. After all, it's a full week and this is one of the wettest months out of the year, so it wouldn't be a surprise to deal with a stormy forecast. 

I think the week overall will be about as nice as you could ask for in June if you're going to spend hours just feet off the pavement peddling many, many miles taking in the Kansas weather. Maybe some would prefer cooler temperatures, but in June that can be asking too much. 

Here's what we come up with for Sunday/Monday for cyclists in western Kansas:

Monday and Tuesday (June 10/11) will have bicycles traveling across central Kansas. There is a chance for rain on Tuesday, but it looks like scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Severe weather threats are very, very low, so I wouldn't worry about that. However, it will likely get in the way of wheat harvest and could be a nuisance for cyclists:

Wednesday/Thursday moves to north central Kansas - the weather is heating up and the wind is picking up:

As the journey wraps up near Kansas City, it will be hotter with more wind out of the south.

Wheat harvesters will have a pretty good stretch ahead as threats of rain begin to shut down for awhile. The outlook for moisture for the second week of June and into the third week favors mainly dry conditions for the central US. Better storm chances will focus over the northern Plains. 

I don't think the rain is gone for good throughout the rest of June. Several models bring a large upper low pressure system into the region, but we will have to wait and see exactly what the timing of that will be prior to advertising too many details. 

Have a great day and thanks for reading!