Peek into July - there's some rain

Rain is a good thing, especially when it comes in the month of July. There are some strong signals that we are going to be getting some rain at the beginning of the month, but if it gets ridiculously hot, it may not be enough to get us very far.

As we typically do, just a reminder about what is "normal" or average for July. The average temperatures don't change much, and we don't really lose that much daylight between the beginning and end of the month. 

Taken at face value, most models give some rainfall to Kansas over the next 10 days that should prove helpful, but not drought ending. 

If you read in my last update about the center of high pressure and where that thing goes in the coming months, you know that we do have some concern it will be nearby in mid-late July. I would expect our hottest part of the month will be during that time, so the first 8-10 days of the new month might be a cake walk compared to later on.

Here's your rainfall compared to average for early July:

Moving into mid-July, I expect another pattern shift where the upper level high will be much closer to the Plains, effectively shutting off the better rain potential (but not ending it completely).

And July as a whole could wind up looking like this for rainfall around the Plains:

Perhaps what's driving the "above" average moisture for Kansas is what we get at the beginning of the month, as mid-late July could be quite dry. 

As July continues on, I think we will see typical July weather as it gets hotter with the heat dome at least nearby for the 2nd and 3rd weeks of the month. Keep in mind, even though we do see a sizeable amount of yellow and orange, some of what is leading to "above" average temperatures are the overnight lows staying warmer - which of course will also help to skew the temperatures warmer. 

Have a great day!