Late November/early December thoughts

This remarkable shift toward wetter weather has been a welcome change. I even chatted with one rancher recently who expressed his desire to briefly pause the rain because he was fighting the mud. While some might have that same feeling, we don't want the moisture to stay away for too long. It would be nice to put some more water back in ponds/lakes - the drought is far from over. 

What's next for Kansas? There's good agreement that colder weather is coming for the end of November and early December, but it doesn't look to stay for too long. 

Once the first full week of December rolls around (9th-14th), we are likely seeing the coldest air go east. 

As for precipitation, December isn't going to be like November. It will be near or drier than average from what I can tell. We may have a bunch of smaller scale systems coming through, which could provide small amounts of rainfall (and some snow), but I think our big systems out of the West have ended for now. They will more than likely be back at a later time.  

When it comes to snow, December is (on average) our first chances of 1" or more in most areas. If you want to believe the map below, over the 30 days period (ending on December 30), much of the state would have anywhere from 2-5" - which isn't much when spread over a month. 

Historical Thanksgiving stats for Wichita and Dodge City:

Have a terrific holiday!

The active/rainy pattern continues

We're getting a bit of a pause this week in the rain, but the active pattern returns for our 3rd full week of November. We've made some inroads in pushing back on ongoing drought conditions, but since we were so far behind on rainfall, more will be needed This month has already been historic in terms of rainfall (top 5 wettest for many), and more rain is coming soon.

Here's the preview:

There may be two separate rounds coming across the area, one happening on Monday and then we'll see if a more potent system arrives on Wednesday (Nov. 20th)

And it will also be colder for the 3rd week of November. I would anticipate highs in the 30s/40s, with lows dipping back below freezing:

 

Week of Thanksgiving:

We could potentially have active weather during the holiday week. Please check back for more updates, but for now, look at the images below. One is Sunday, the other is Tuesday, and if they become reality, we may very well have rain and snow potential coming across the central Plains. Lately, we've had several desert Southwest systems, and those have been quite productive for us. It may continue into the holiday week and beyond. We don't know yet how soon it will end, but I do expect a return of western US high pressure, which will bring about a stretch of drier weather.

There's going to be some colder weather at the start of the holiday week, but it may be warming back up in time for Thanksgiving Day. Overall, the holiday week looks near "normal" for temperatures. 

November meteor shower:

The Leonids will peak on November 16/17. Remember, with these celestial events, there's not much to remember about viewing other than finding the darkest spot available to you. We will have an almost full moon, which will make viewing a bit more challenging. However, with a favorable forecast, you might be inclined to check it out.