Past drought cycles as rain finally returns

One of the questions that's come up lately is how the ongoing drought compares to recent drought cycles. I did some digging and found that since 2000, this is one of the longer periods of drought that Kansas has experienced. For the sake of this research, if at least 50% of the state was in some level of drought, I counted it. Following that, I found a 4-year cycle of drought back in 2011-2015, which would make this current cycle the 2nd longest since 2000. It is rare to find drought that persists more than 4 years in any one particular area, so we have to be nearing the end of this, but it may take several more months. 

This long-lasting drought does coincide with a very lengthy La Niña cycle (from 2020 to early 2023). And the El Niño that we had back in 2023 ended after less than a year - not really long enough to get us out of the predicament we are in now. 

La Nina barely even developed and is now gone and could be replaced by an El Nino. Note in the image below all of the orange/red showing up near the Galapagos Islands. That warm water is moving westward and could soon enough be in the area south of Hawaii (that's where we determine if El Nino or La Nina is underway). It would be most advantageous to have an El Nino to combat the ongoing drought. Those tend to be wetter patterns for Kansas.

What's on the way:

It seems that a persistent pattern of weak systems out of the West will continue. If we can keep the higher Gulf humidity in place, we will have the chance at rain. What is worrisome is that May is (on average) one of the top 3 wettest months of the year. Much of the state typically can expect 3-6 inches of rain throughout the 31-day period, but lately our luck hasn't been that great. 

Here's how late April looks for rainfall (compared to average) - keep in mind we typically can expect about .5-1" for much of the state during this time period. If the map verifies for us, you could expect over an inch in a lot of areas.

Into early May, the pattern shouldn't change too much. Repeated systems in from the West will hopefully still encounter deep, Gulf humidity. Average rainfall increases in early May too. If central Kansas ends up with "average", then it would be about .75-1", but western Kansas is forecast to be "wetter" than average, so in that part of the state, we could easily get around an inch.

I'd be concerned about rain shutting down from mid-late May. See the map below:

And a similar look from this particular computer model for mid-late May:

All of this to say that we could make some progress on drought improvement, but it definitely won't be over with anytime soon. It would be nice to have a wet summer ahead. That remains a possibility, but we need to see more data.

Thanks for reading!

Here we are waiting on rain... again

We did get some welcome rainfall to kick off the month of April, but suddenly, the waiting game is back on. How long will it be? The short answer is it could be late April before we see any decent, widespread chances returning. What makes this even more frustrating is watching the huge surplus of moisture continue to go south and east of Kansas - exactly the kind of rain we need to fill lakes and farm ponds.

There is a western system that is coming in around April 13/14: Expectations are low for rain

I don't have much hope on this bringing much moisture. It appears it will be another cold front that comes through with little to no widespread rain for Kansas. 

And then as we approach the start of the week April 21st, once again, high pressure "ridging" takes over areas from the Rockies westward. Again, not favorable for good rainfall in the central Plains. Upper level winds from the northwest are detrimental because most of the time the rich humidity gets pushed too far east of Kansas.

Here's the rainfall forecast (7 day compared to average) around April 15th: again, wish we had something different to display here.

However, late April looks more encouraging, but it may only be parts of the region that turn out "wetter" than average. This is the 7 day rainfall compared to average around April 30th.

All of this to say that I don't think we are moving into a wet period at all in the coming weeks. Based on the emails and messages I'm getting, several of you are fed up with drought. And sometimes it feels like we keep promising something just "8-10 days" out. Patterns are sometimes really, really hard to break out of, and as most of us are finding out in real-time, this one is no different. 

I will say this - most models going into summer don't show extreme heat. If we go into summer drier than normal (and that's my expectation), there's reason to be concerned that we "fry". However, I'm not entirely convinced that we are going down that road just yet. While there will be plenty of hot days, it may not be that rough.

Tornado count:

It has really exploded in recent weeks. As of April 3rd, we are now experiencing one of the busiest starts to the season since 2010. Note the graph below. The red line is the trend for 2025, while the solid black line represents the "average" throughout the year. 

Another chilly snap might be coming, but rain....?

We've had our fair share of wind this month of March. Living in the Plains, we are accustomed to some wind, but gusts over 65 and 70 mph pushes the threshold of what most of us consider acceptable. Take a look at these March calendars of wind gusts:

Hays:

Dodge City:

Wichita:

The reason why it's been so dang windy is just how intense the low pressure systems have been coming out of the West. They are reaching their peak strength here in the Plains, with atmospheric pressure dropping almost as low as what you'd find in hurricanes. It's a little unusual to see a barometer reading get down to around 28" of mercury in Kansas, but when you do, you can guarantee the wind will be quite intense. 

Are we done with the cold?

I still think another stretch of chilly weather may be coming in the first half of April. Why? Well, we again look to the Arctic Oscillation and it has gone negative. This time of the year, a cold snap would likely be highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s, but I would be prepared for the second week in April to trend cooler than average. 

This doesn't always mean it will get colder, but it's something we'll be watching, and early spring gardeners should be on the lookout. This is what the temperature map looks like for mid April (compared to average):

April rainfall isn't looking spectacular at this point. I think will be some rain at the beginning of the month, and then again late in the month, but mid-April looks dry. Of course, we could get lucky and end up under a slow moving thunderstorm that drops some beneficial rain, but that wouldn't show up in our data right now. 

Tornado count in Kansas remains at zero right now, but nationally it has been increasing rapidly. It doesn't indicate one way or the other how the upcoming storm season will go in the Plains. Look back at the last 10 years of data and see that the first three months of the year tend to be very quiet with respect to tornadoes. Even in 2017 when we had just over 10 tornadoes, that spring would go on to have 63 tornadoes overall, which is fewer than average. 

In 2008, that year started off very, very slow, but would go on to have over 200 by the end of June. There's just no way to draw conclusions between what's happened so far and what's to come. 

March is coming in - still some snow left

After the kind of January and February that we've been through, I can only guess that the majority of you reading this are done with cold and snow. However, any long time Kansan knows that getting through March with no snow is nearly impossible, but it has happened before. 

See the stats below on the last snowless March:

Average snowfall in March:

• Goodland: 4.8"
• Dodge City: 3.7"
• Wichita: 2.1"

Otherwise, rainfall averages start going back up in March but still come up well shy of what they will be in just a few months. 

March expectations:

I see the month ahead as near or slightly warmer than average overall. Any dip in temperature is not going to be long at all (likely less than 5 days where highs may fall below average). And of course, in March, any cold snap won't be like what we had the two previous months. If we go just off the Arctic Oscillation, we could say March is likely free of any bitter cold air. As long as it remains "positive", our chances of extended cold remain very low. If it goes "negative", we might be more concerned for a cold snap ahead. It doesn't do that until the very end of the month. 

Rainfall - since the weather pattern should remain fairly active through March, there's an opportunity where we could have "average" moisture between the beginning and end of the month. Looking out over the next several weeks, the West coast should continue to be hit with one system after another and I think several of those could reach us in the central US. 

So, more snow in March? I think we will see at least some in Kansas but doubt it will be significant (more than 5/6") on a huge scale. Most of this may be coming in the first few weeks of the new month.

Have a great day!

A February mix coming up

We made it through one of the coldest Januarys on record since the 80s for parts of the state. Up until the last week, some areas were even on track for a "top 10 coldest", but the late month rally knocked us out of that ranking. 

Here's a look at how the month wraps up:

February stats look like this - we gain an hour of daylight by the end of the month!

Early February is marked by tremendous rain/snow for the West - something that never showed up in January. This is the wet season for the West coast, so it's nice to see they will be getting much needed moisture. Low pressure should be fairly persistent in that area of the country and may continue for most of February. 

Most of our models showcase a colder than average mid-February coming up, but definitely NOT the coldest we've had so far this winter. And it's unlikely to stay for more than a week before the warming kicks in again. 

Late February still looks to warm back up from the Plains on south and east. And there will likely be more wet/snowy weather continuing on the West coast. 

I think what's a bit striking are the places that are still waiting on some snow this winter. Yet places like Houston and New Orleans that typically don't get snow have had a fun month.

Overall, I don't see the next 30 days being that significant in terms of rain or snow. We are about to go back through a drier pattern that may continue up until the end of February or early March. I will say, March this year could be interesting. Stay tuned. 

More winter or are things thawing?

It's been quite a month of January so far with the cold, ice, blizzard, and snow. This was our concern back when we issued the winter outlook calling for "plenty of cold in January and February". I think what's amazing is how the eastern half of Kansas is experiencing one of the coldest Januarys in years, but western Kansas is not. It is still colder than average, but it's not ranking in the top 15 so far. The shades of green for central Kansas are roughly 10° below average.

We still have plenty of winter and snow before spring arrives, BUT I do think some of the worst of the cold is nearly over with (or will be soon). The Arctic Oscillation is moving back positive and the cold and stormy weather may soon be shifting to the West coast. That would be very helpful for California.

More cold to finish off January:
The pattern through the end of the month still favors colder air out of Canada. It's unlikely to be anything worse than what we've already had, but it also means a late January thaw isn't going to last for  more than a few days before it turns colder. And some snow from early January will remain for a bit longer too.

The beginning of February is still trending cold, but it may not take long to get beyond it and see the milder days taking hold as we approach mid-February:

Perhaps we could have some early spring arriving in mid-late February. Remember how mild December was? That version of the weather pattern may show itself in less than 30 days:

Why have the Santa Ana winds been so bad in California?

Lately, we've had a series of ridges (high pressure) on the West coast that have helped to intensify the stronger winds going into the mountains and valleys just outside of LA. Back in early January, a low pressure that had formed in northern Mexico COMBINED with the high on the West coast to basically super charge the wind - some gusts nearing 100 mph. More recently, the persistent highs have lead to wind gusts more in the 40-60 mph range. Southern California is back in drought with many areas only receiving T-.15" since last July. Can you imagine? This pattern should begin to break at the end of January. 

However, rainfall is nowhere to be found through January 28th.