January cold is gearing up

It should come as no surprise that much of the state is still waiting on its first 1" of snow for the winter, but that's not close to any kind of record. In fact, last winter our first significant snow for most of Kansas came on January 5th. It was after some freezing rain and ice buildup in central and eastern Kansas. Records for the "latest first 1" of snow" actually go clear into March, so we have a long way to go before that is threatened. 

December is wrapping up as a top 10 warmest for western Kansas (where the average temperature was 5-10° above the normal), but it wasn't quite as warm farther east. The cold weather that hit early in the month offset so much of the record heat during Christmas week.

Colder & longer periods of cold are coming:

It's interesting because when Alaska is bitter cold, the western half of the United States is milder. However, when high pressure (ridging) starts to develop near or over Alaska, we usually start to see the bitter cold diving farther south. 

Here are a couple of examples: January 4th you can see the low pressure favored areas (blue colors) along the West coast and right up into Alaska. Kansas and much of the Plains are warm at that time with high pressure over the region. 

Note - January 14th. There's a reversal. When high pressure "ridging" returns to Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest, much colder air should drop south right into the areas east of the Rockies. The blue colors over the Great Lakes and just east of Kansas represent a cold pattern that's more than likely taking hold BEFORE we get to mid-January. This will likely be Arctic air.

December didn't have much to pick from with moisture - some light snow at the very beginning of the month, and then a dusting on December 28/29. The last good soaking of rainfall was back in late November - just prior to Thanksgiving. 

January Temperature:

Here's the map - looks like a near "normal" month ahead where the cold snaps will be balanced out by warmer stretches of weather. It's entirely possible all the mild weather to kick off January will be wiped out by much colder air mid-late month. It will turn much colder before we know it. 

Precip:

There will be a couple of storm systems coming from the West as we approach mid-January. Look for the month to have more precipitation than December, but that may not be saying much considering how dry it was in the previous 30 days. We will get some snow, but I don't think it will be anything significant. 

Happy New Year!

Changes coming, but we still have time

The winter solstice is on December 21st at 9:03am, and we've already released our winter forecast, which was met with some interesting feedback. Some of you hate the cold and snow, while others don't mind it around Christmas time, but then after the holiday, you want sunshine and 60s/70s. 

Lately, it seems like all of the snow is hanging around the Great Lakes, upper Midwest, and northern Plains. Just take a look at how much snow has already fallen for those locations:

This is classic La Nina in wintertime - basically cold and wet across the northern tier of the US, but the southern Plains is dry and warm. It won't be this way all winter long, but as evidenced lately, there will be some very lengthy periods that are pretty quiet for Kansas. 

What's next:

Still looks rather warm overall through Christmas as the main jet stream winds come straight in from the west or northwest. As we've seen lately, Kansas is the battleground for the warm and cold, but what seems to be winning on most days is the milder air.

Keep an eye on the period around New Years and right after because we should start seeing much colder air taking over across the Plains states and the northern tier of the US. That's when we see the Arctic Oscillation going "negative", which usually allows for much colder air to break off from the Canadian provinces and settle farther south. However, it also looks like the high pressure (ridge) over the western US starts to weaken, allowing for some very wet/snowy setups over the western 1/3 of the nation.

I know some of the images we post can be a little "in the weeds" or confusing, but overall, our message for winter hasn't changed. Still looks like we have a fair amount of mild before any prolonged period of cold. And moisture will return too, but it may not happen on a larger scale until we approach the new year and get started with 2026.

Winter forecast 2025-26

Whether you like the season or not, winter weather is always a big point of discussion this time of year. Two questions that come up routinely in conversation are "how bad is the winter going to be", or "how much snow are we going to get". It seems like we start getting these questions around state fair time onward. 

These long-range forecasts are difficult, and there's a great deal of analyzing and thought put into what we release, but at the end of the day, nobody has the answers. Still, we do what we can so you have an understanding of what might be ahead in the coming months. 

❄Last Winter:

It was a snowy one for south central Kansas, but other areas of the state just had "average" snow. Most of it didn't arrive until January and February, with almost 0 snow reported in December 2024.

❄This Winter:

It's highly possible the main snow tracks this winter will be farther north (through Nebraska, Iowa, northern Missouri, and the upper Midwest), so although there are some similarities to the setup from last winter, parts of the state will not be as snowy this winter (like Wichita). However, northern Kansas could be snowier this winter compared to last.

Two interesting factors: La Nina in the Pacific (south of Hawaii) and a very warm Gulf of Alaska. This was the case last winter too, but the water off the coast of Alaska is just a bit warmer. I'm starting to think this will favor high pressure in that region, which in turn will force more Arctic air to slide east of the Rockies (pushing down into the US). This could be a routine occurrence throughout the winter.

The La Nina is essentially of the same strength and magnitude as it was last winter.

La Nina also favors colder than average weather across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Kansas will be on the western fringe of most of it, but there will be some stretches ahead where it stays quite cold for several consecutive days (but not likely weeks on end).

We should have a couple of wet storms coming out of the Southwest between now and March, but when they arrive, it may not be cold enough for snow. It's entirely possible that we'll have a wet winter overall, but it won't all be snow and it may come with just a few stronger low pressure systems.

Every year, each member of the weather team submits a snow prediction. Most of us might have some simple methodology in how we arrive at our numbers, but in the end, it is a forecast and not a guarantee. We do the best we can with what we have and hope that it is helpful in some fashion. And in case you're wondering, there's no prize awarded to the team member who gets closest 😊