New April rainfall maps

In the face of expanding drought across the Plains, we continue to see some encouraging signs going into April. Late March has been controlled by a dominant ridge of high pressure over the Southwest, and that has essentially led to more of what we had all winter (mild weather and several dry spells). Just look at all of the records that will fall on March 21st from California to Wisconsin.

Here's what happens around the 1st of the month:

Low pressure becomes favored over the area west of the Rockies while the high pressure moves to the East coast. As a word of caution - this doesn't always guarantee significant rainfall, but chances will return on a larger scale than anything we've had the past several weeks.

The rainfall outlook in early April looks like this:

This might make the difference between a mediocre wheat crop and one that could do very well, assuming we avoid all early spring freezes. I don't think the entire month will be rainy however, as high pressure may reassert itself back in the Plains by mid-late April.

If that becomes the case, we'll see our rain chances dropping off quickly and risks of severe weather will shift away from the central Plains.

In case you're wondering about temperatures, April should be warmer than average once again. I should remind you that even though we are having a hot start to spring, that doesn't necessarily mean the upcoming summer is going to be hotter than blazes. Some of the latest data continues to show the central Plains with an average or slightly cooler than average summer (months of June, July, and August combined). Some food for thought as we deal with the recent streak of record highs.

Thanks for reading!

Expanding drought - rain will be scarce

It's not that uncommon for March to be windy and mainly dry, but if you keep missing rains into April, you start to get a little nervous about it what it means going into summer. Lately, there has been some good rainfall in south central and eastern Kansas, but the latest drought map doesn't necessarily reflect that. In the short term, high pressure from Kansas to the West coast will keep the central Plains mostly void of decent moisture.

Beneficial rainfall (and some snow) will favor the northern Plains and areas east of Kansas, but the stubborn ridge will keep the central and southern Plains dry. We'll also see the potential of severe storms drop off.

If we stretch our rainfall forecast out to April 20th, it's a tough map to digest for areas across central and western Kansas where things have been pretty dry. It doesn't mean there won't be any rain, just that conditions will be drier than average. 

For what it's worth, we are quickly watching the La Nina in the Pacific fade away. The water has been slightly colder than average for the past several months (since last summer), but we are currently seeing the water warm up south of Hawaii. That is key to a change that should be coming as we move toward summer. Traditionally, with an onset of El Nino, the Plains can expect patterns that bring more favorable rainfall. It won't happen overnight or within a week, but a shift toward El Nino offers some hopeful signs of rain going forward (even if the spring isn't overly helpful).

This is how the water looked on December 1st:

And now, you'll see less "blue" colors along the Equator. We know the water is gradually warming, but an official declaration of El Nino won't come for several more months yet. 

I'll write something soon and go into more detail on the El Nino coming, but for now, just know that we are soon making the switch. 

Have a great day!

March coming in like a lion

After a fairly benign February, the month of March looks like it will come in like a gentle lion (if there is such a thing). You have to think it could be worse and we have definitely seen worse.

We do know the first 10 days of March look wet! Basically, from the southern Plains to the upper Midwest, a series of large-scale systems out of the West could keep things pretty soggy. I guess not EVERYONE needs rain, according to this email we received from a viewer on February 26th:

I do think the majority of our March moisture (overall) is weighted toward the beginning of the month, with repeated systems arriving from the West or Southwest. We're even looking at some risk of stronger thunderstorms across the southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. I don't think Kansas will have much of a severe weather threat at this stage.

There's reason to be concerned about a heavy, wet snow in March, but I don't think we'll see much of that in Kansas (might be a concern west and north of our immediate area). Below is the March rainfall outlook for the 31 day period - favoring the eastern half of Kansas to be wetter, with western Kansas still getting some rain, but not likely to be wetter than average (which is typically about 1-2" of rain)

The pattern should calm down some by mid-March and into the second half of the month. It wouldn't be a total surprise to see high pressure returning to the west of the Rockies, which would bring about some drier trends in the 3rd week of the month. However, we should keep a watch on late March as more active weather could be returning out of the West. Most models seem to hint at the pattern reloading again after the 23rd. Of course, that late in the month, one might anticipate the threat of severe storms increasing

We've had one heck of a run on warm weather this winter. In fact, this reaches the top 10 warmest winters on record (top 5 for western Kansas), so we probably won't soon forget this one. I think we had about 2-3 weeks of "cold" overall, and I'd be surprised if this month of March is anything out of the ordinary. 

Right now, the data tells us to expect a seasonal month - likely to close to the average. There are still some chilly days ahead, but they'll more than likely be limited in duration.

Winter fades very fast - some chilly days still to come

I thought mid-late February would have another shot of some Arctic air, but that expectation has faded given the breakdown of the Polar Vortex and general trend toward a positive Arctic Oscillation (the two go hand-in-hand). Recall that the Polar Vortex, when it's strong, can send an overwhelming amount of cold air south across areas east of the Rockies. It happened in late January, but since then it has weakened and shifted back northeast.

I know we have some warm winters from time to time, but this one is probably one of the strangest in recent memory. Since December 1st (or the start of meteorological winter), we've had almost 10 days where some place in Kansas has recorded a record high, and more to be added soon. December had 4 days with record highs, January with 2, and we'll soon be adding to February's count.

Third week of February (16-22):

A dominant pattern with low pressure across the West will favor warmer weather throughout the central Plains on to the east. Take note of the VERY cold air across western Canada. That was originally thought to move south and get into the central Plains, but I'm not expecting that to happen now. We may get some of that chillier air, but not the core of it. 

February 23-March 2:

Definitely cooler to end February and start March, but it's very unlikely to be bitterly cold. Expect most highs to be in the 40s and 50s. And precipitation throughout this period will likely be somewhat scarce, considering upper level winds will be back to the west/northwest (traditionally a drier setup)

March as a whole: More than likely it will be near or slightly warmer than average

Precipitation: near to slightly wetter across the central Plains. 

• Western Kansas average rainfall in March is about 1-1.50"
• Central/South Central Kansas average March rain is 2-2.50"

The overall setup may be something that resembles what happened in December where the northern Plains and upper Midwest had more active weather. That's fitting of a weak La Nina influence, but as we mentioned last time, La Nina has all but faded at this time. 

Milder for now, but cold isn't finished yet

There's light at the end of the winter tunnel and this is our last month of meteorological winter. Keep that in mind as I tell you that more cold (and likely some Arctic air) is headed this way in February. We really can't complain too much because December and the first half of January were very warm. 

The Arctic oscillation remains negative for now (that argues for cold) and another index (the MJO - which tracks rising and sinking motions out across the Indian Ocean and Pacific) hints at phases that would keep the middle of the country colder than average. All of this to say, there's more winter to go yet.

Snow has been extremely hard to come by for the ski resorts in the Rockies. As we start this new month, the snow cover favors the Great Lakes and the East and is significantly higher than it was one year ago for early February.

Here are the maps - February overall:

Mid-February will likely go much colder as we once again anticipate systems dropping out of the Pacific Northwest and western Canada to help drag the colder air across the Rockies, northern/central Plains and areas to the east. 

There is a reasonable chance that a storm system will form near the central US just after Valentine's Day. Stick with us as we work out the details on rain and snow, but that's the next system that might have more of a direct influence on chances for moisture. 

A reprieve from the cold will come too - perhaps into our last full week of February. As has been the case so much lately, that Arctic air will retreat eastward in time, so the entire second half of February won't be below average.

Odds seems to favor some moisture in February. It will more than likely include more snow, but some rain is possible for the region too. Near or wetter than average conditions are showing up, most of which may come in the middle of the month.

The average February stats look like this for Kansas:

Thanks for reading!

A price to be paid for the warm

Winter storm update: All snow for Friday and Saturday, and when melted down, here's the liquid content of it all. It's not going to be the classic 10 inches of snow to 1" of rain - the air is much colder for this go around. 

Snowfall numbers coming soon, but here's what we have so far:

And be glad we aren't getting what the southern Plains will get - MAJOR ice!

The cold is finally showing up - now past the halfway mark in meteorological winter. Recent forecasts seem to be getting met with some serious unhappiness, but after so much warm in December and the first half of January, this probably isn't a surprise for some of you. 

Here's how January temperatures have looked so far: 

January: Much of the country is warmer than average, with some of the warmest from Kansas to the northern Rockies. 

Some of the driest areas of Kansas continue to be in the northwest and across southern Kansas, as this winter hasn't been very productive in precipitation. (this is since Dec. 1st)

And snowfall for the winter season looks like this - well below average for most of the region:

Coldest air of the season coming soon - it won't be the last either.

Kansas has primarily been on the western edge of most of the Arctic air this winter, but that probably won't be the case moving through late January. The West coast is back in the drier pattern with a big-time high-pressure ridge favored there. East of that ridge is where the bitter cold will be cutting loose.

Very late in January, expect it to be warming back up though as low pressure pulls away to the east and high pressure starts to expand across the West. This will likely result in dry weather to end January and highs that will trend back above average.

Another blast of Arctic air could be coming in February:

If high pressure pulls back toward Alaska (their weather gets warmer and calmer), that will allow for the bitter cold to surge back south across the middle of the US. This kind of setup would likely be mostly dry, but we'll see how it all comes together. 

Have a great day and thanks for reading!