Winter Forecast

One of the projects I'm working on is coming up with a winter forecast for 2011-2012. Making long range forecasts are not easy, but this Sunday night at 10 p.m., I'll be talking about what kind of weather I think Kansas will be seeing this winter. Yes, we know it will get cold and we are bound to get some snow, but how much snow and what are the chances we'll get ice? There are several factors to take into account when coming up with a long range outlook, and I'll go over some of them in the broadcast.


Here is the winter forecast we put out last year in November. It was very accurate with Wichita ending the season with just over 17 inches of snow. And there was one morning in February where the temperature dipped down to -17. We also had a couple of record setting 70 degree days that followed the -17. So wild weather is common in the winter months here in Kansas. We see it other times of the year too, but big fluctuations in temperatures are common in the cold season around here.

Millie and I visited Clark Davidson Elementary school on Monday. Here is a picture from our visit with the 1st graders.

Crepuscular rays

We are all familiar with a "ray" of sunshine, but there is a different kind of ray that you may not be familiar with. Crepuscular rays are common sights at sunrise and sunset, or near mountainous terrain where the rays of sunlight are actually blocked, creating a shadow. This satellite image from the International Space Station shows how the crepuscular rays are actually parallel, but when viewed from the ground, it appears the rays radiate out from the center of light source. This illusion is caused by distance and perspective in which we are viewing the light.

Our weather situation in Kansas is about to get active. Several storm systems will be crossing the central and western US through the first 10 days of November. Let's hope it cuts into the drought situation a little more, as much of the state could still benefit from precipitation. Of course this time of the year, it could be rain or snow, so check back for updates.

Fall frost

It may seem early, or it could be that our summer was so hot we're just not ready for the first fall frost or freeze. But actually, we are very close to the time when much of Kansas should experience lows in the 30s, resulting in some frost. Of course, northern parts of Kansas, on average, would see the frost first, with southern Kansas being the last areas of the state to see sub freezing temperatures. But this year has been anything but average. You'll see the map I've posted shows the average first fall frost for the state, and a few areas have already reported lows in the 30-35 degree range.

I enjoy these cooler nights and sleeping with the windows open. But anyone that suffers from allergies probably finds it hard to open the windows just yet. There is still a bunch of junk floating around in the air that is bothering a lot of people, and in order to help get rid of it, we really need temperatures to drop into the upper 20s. That won't happen for several more weeks, but the overall weather pattern the week of October 17-21st should support cooler than average temperatures and the chance for some frost in the near future.