Storm Setup for Today (Monday)

Good Monday morning and welcome to the first full week of March. We've had a long drought of stormy weather in the Plains. Most of the systems have either gone north or south of us, leaving us high and dry for over a month in places.

The latest weather pattern change is allowing a storm system to slide into northern Mexico. There is a nice stream of Gulf moisture flowing north into the central US, but we would need more in order for this to be a significant severe weather setup. One of the factors contributing to the potential for severe storms is the amount of wind coming in from the south/southwest. This strong wind helps storms produce hail once they develop, but there are other factors working against the chance for rain. So this setup just doesn't favor widespread severe weather.

There will be a chance for some rain Tuesday over south central and eastern Kansas, but amounts will likely be under .25" and the storms will not be severe.

We are watching a HUGE low pressure system in the upper atmosphere over northern Mexico and south Texas. It will take days for it to finally move on, and when it does, it will lift to the northeast. This could help produce some rain Friday evening for southeast Kansas. Our weather pattern is VERY different this week, but we are still on the short end of the rainfall setup. Hope this will change soon to ease the fire danger setups.

Rainfall forecast and a severe weather potential

We continue to advertise a big change in the weather pattern for next week, and the chance for much needed moisture to return to Kansas. That change is still in the works and it's going to be a huge storm system, but will we get very much rainfall out of it? 

Rainfall from Sunday - Wednesday

Right now, I think some of our best chances will come Monday afternoon/evening, and then again Tuesday. If we look at one forecast model for rainfall from Sunday - Wednesday, it does show some areas of Kansas getting an inch of rain, primarily over south central and southeast Kansas. The heaviest rainfall will be somewhat scattered, so not everyone will see the higher totals. The biggest problem here is that the main storm system will be tracking so far south that the heavy, widespread soaking rains will end up in eastern Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas. I know we will be grateful for whatever moisture we do get, but despite the size of this incoming storm, it's a little disappointing to see how much of Kansas will be missed by heavier precipitation.

Severe Weather Chance: We do expect some strong storms Monday evening. Although they will be scattered and many of them below severe limits, here is a map showing where the highest severe potential will be Monday afternoon/evening.

Chance of Snow: None!!! Can you believe we have a HUGE storm system developing in early March and not even a chance for snowflakes anywhere in our area. The main rain/snow line is WAY up north along the Canadian/US border. Very impressive, but it goes along with this incredibly warm pattern that we've been on now for 3-4 weeks. 

March stats & what to expect this month

March comes in like a tame cat rather than a lion. This is a month that is typically known for some wild weather in Kansas. Sometimes, it's a severe weather outbreak and other times, it can be a historic blizzard. March 1st also marks the start of meteorologic spring!

The normal high for the start of the month is 53 and it will jump 10 degrees by the end of the month. But we've been so far above normal the last several weeks that normal highs don't really mean much now. Unseasonably warm temperatures look like they will continue.

Early next week, there will be a big shift in the weather patter, and as the upper level winds turn back to the southwest. Gulf of Mexico moisture starts to push north and we SHOULD have some much better chances for rain in the Tuesday - Thursday time frame.

Today - March 5: Fairly quiet weather with more ups and downs in temperatures
March 6 - 10: Active weather likely - rain & some thunder in the Plains. Very unlikely to have snow
March 11 - 14: Looking quiet - milder
March 15 - 18: More active weather in the Plains - rain chances increase
March 19 - 23: Chilly stretch of weather but likely dry
March 24 - 31: Milder weather and mainly dry

Looks like this was the year for early spring. We will be watching these next few weeks for the active weather to return to the Plains.