Crazy winds - stormy weather returns - long range forecast

We've made it to Wednesday and survived the windiest day for the week (that was yesterday) So many questions about why it's been so windy lately. Here are some of the latest stats since March 1st.

In the last 36 days, 25 of them have had peak wind gusts of 30 mph or stronger!! Yes, it has been extremely windy and so many instances lately of the wind not bringing any moisture to the Plains.

Happening Now:

The winds in the upper atmosphere are coming straight down from the northwest and that is not a good pattern to be in when you need moisture like we do here in Kansas. Winter temperatures continue across the Great Lakes and the upper Midwest. That cold stuff will likely stay away from Kansas, so I don't think there's any threat to our growing season.

This weekend:

A series of storms will be coming from the Pacific and our storm track will shift back to the southwest. The Gulf of Mexico will FINALLY open back up, and eventually, this will help to increase the rain potential around the middle of the country (INCLUDING KANSAS)! The first system will approach Saturday, and it's going to fall apart before it gets here. The second system arrives at the end of the weekend, and will combine with a front that should help produce scattered showers and storms just about anywhere in the state. It may not be widespread, heavy rainfall, but lets see how things develop and change in the next few days.

Forecast (Monday/Tuesday, April 11-12)

Rain chances will likely be ending late Monday afternoon for Kansas. Tuesday is shaping up to be mainly dry too. We could be in between systems during that time.

European Model

GFS (American Model)

Potential Severe Weather Setup Late Next week (around April 15/16)

Forecast models are showing a large, developing storm system toward the end of the week. Both models that we consider heavily when making a forecast suggest a big storm system will setup over the western part of the US AND push into the Plains before falling apart. We've seen this setup before and it didn't do anything for Kansas because the system weakened before making it into the central US. But this one looks different, and we could see a severe weather setup within the next 10-14 days. Details to come! 

Drought expanding - pattern shifting throughout the week

It's our first full week of April and a time when we are normally talking April showers. Instead, everything continues to go around our state and the drought is expanding. We have several counties that have moved into "moderate drought" as the "abnormally dry" areas also continue to expand. If you look at the graphic below, you can see the deficits since March 1st. What little moisture we have had won't go very far now that the growing season is getting underway. 

Tuesday: There will be a chance for a few showers/storms Tuesday evening. Rainfall amounts of 0.25" or less seem likely. This is a system coming from the Pacific Northwest, and this is not a favorable setup for us to see widespread rains. It's also not looking like a severe weather setup, even though some of the storms may produce some small hail and gusty winds.

Midweek: The pattern will remain with a northwest wind flow aloft. This means more dry weather for the end of the week. 

Jet Stream for Thursday - not favorable for rainfall

Late weekend: There are a couple of storm systems that will push in from the Pacific. Initially, the first system will likely weaken and spread clouds into Kansas by Saturday. The second system could be stronger and could help to produce some scattered showers and storms into Kansas by Sunday/Monday of next week. 

Pattern changing over the weekend

As I mentioned last week, the long range models haven't been very encouraging for widespread rains. However, let's keep an eye on the setup at the end of the weekend to see if it develops into something that could be beneficial for us.

First two storms in April - no foolin'

Happy April Fool's Day!! I'm sure before this day is over, I'll get fooled into believing something. But no foolin' here, we have two storm systems to watch in the first week of April. This is one of our wetter months, with average rainfall listed below:

Wichita: 2.59"

Dodge City: 1.82"

Goodland: 1.59"

Salina: 3.05"

First Storm: This system will arrive into the western US around Monday. It's a fairly strong system but as it moves over the mountains and heads east, it will be weakening and becoming disorganized. It will help to strengthen the winds by Tuesday, just ahead of a cold front that is going to come through Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Gulf of Mexico moisture will be limited (at best), so the likelihood of measurable rainfall is quite low. Even if we end up with a chance for rain, it would only be in southeast Kansas. 

2nd Storm: This system will spend most of the week just west of Baja, California. Late in the week, this system will begin weakening as it pushes northeast. This will likely be slow to move, so it may not impact Kansas weather until April 9 or 10th at the earliest (if it even gets here at all) This will be a game changer though, as it brings our weather pattern (the jet stream) back to a southwest flow. We need our upper level winds to come from the southwest if we are going to have widespread rain chances. 

Bottom line: Don't expect much rain for the first 8-10 days of April. There are some indications that our 2nd full week of April will offer up more hope for moisture. Details to come!!