Storms are back and look at this cool down

Welcome to Thursday. We are almost halfway through our first week in August and it's about what you'd expect. Highs continue to be in the 90s and low 100s. It's not unheard of to have 100 degree heat into early September, so this isn't unusual at all.

Our weather is about to get more exciting with the arrival of a cold front into Kansas today. Here's what's coming with the front:

1) thunderstorms (some heavy rain, lightning, and wind)

2) cooler temperatures (especially across central and northern Kansas)

3) very low risk of severe storms

Thursday afternoon

Friday afternoon

It will be hot for today (Thursday), but we could have a 20-30 degree spread in temperatures Friday afternoon. That's pretty amazing for a summer afternoon, but it does get more common as we get closer to the first day of fall (still well over a month away). 

There is rain in the forecast and the heaviest will setup across western and northern Kansas. The farther south you get, the more spotty it will be and not as heavy. The chances will linger through much of the weekend. I think we could see another round of rain Friday night AND again Saturday night. It doesn't look like severe storms for the weekend. 

So what's next? I expect that at the beginning of next week, the heat's going to try and build back across the area. Our second week of August will be hot, and that should continue until Thursday or Friday (August 11/12) when another front may arrive with some rain chances. 

Earlier this week, I hinted at some cooler weather that may show up in the second half of August. I still think that will be the case, but I still think we have a couple of mini heat waves to go through before we get the early taste of fall. We will have to be patient, but I'm excited for the changing temperatures. I can't believe some kids head back to school next week.

An outlook for August

Thanks for spending a little time reading the blog today. It is Election Day and for many heading to the polls, we will be braving the heat. I suppose by this point of the summer, most of us are getting used to it and know how to beat the heat, but we still have to be on guard for heat illness. 

At the risk of getting some backlash over making some kind of prediction like this, I'm going to follow through with it and update it as we see fit. There is a particular kind of computer model that we have access to, called an "ensemble" that can help us look farther into the future. It helps us figure out patterns and trends, and based on that, we can make some kind of prediction weeks out. I'm not able to forecast specifics for each day, but by looking at the patterns, we can make a forecast with some degree of confidence. 

Beginning of August:

The most recent stretch of hot weather should roll on for several more days. In fact, it may linger into the middle of next week. During this period, I'm expecting most of our temperatures will be at or above normal (mainly 90s and some 100s). There will be occasional chances for rain, but they look to remain scattered. A front arriving Thursday night/Friday (Aug 4/5) will be one of the better chances here at the start of the month.

Next weekend (Aug 9/10): Some possibility of a storm system coming through the northern Plains, driving a cold front down across Kansas. This may lead to storms and a bit of a cool down. It's unclear what kind of rainfall amounts we may be looking at.

Aug 16-18:

The dome of high pressure will try to return. It doesn't look overly strong, but it may lead to a brief hot spell in the middle of the month. 

Aug 20-24: I'm expecting the weather may turn active again. The dome of high pressure will get shoved out of the area altogether and we may get some much cooler weather coming our way. How long it will last and how much cooler is somewhat uncertain, but I think we could have some more comfortable weather coming our way. We should have some pretty good chances for rain toward the end of the month too, but once again, I'm not able to forecast specifics right now. 

I enjoy making longer range predictions because I think some of the data available to us is better now than it ever has been. It is definitely a challenge but as we move through the month, I'll keep you updated on any changes that will be coming our way. 

July rains/August heat - watching the tropics

Monday is here and welcome to August. This is a month where you'll definitely begin to notice the days getting shorter. We have over 14 hours of daylight here at the beginning of the month, but by August 31st, it's down to 13 hours. Our average high changes very little, going from 92 to 89.

July was a wet month for a bunch of areas, but not everywhere. Wichita was slammed by heavy rains over the 4th of July. So that gave us a boost and makes it one of the wetter July periods on record. Dodge City ended up with above normal rainfall. But it's a little different for Salina and Goodland, which both ended up below normal on moisture.

Wichita: 9.67" (+6.35 for July)

Dodge City: 5.30" (+2.22" for July)

Salina: 2.33" (-1.96" for July)

Goodland: 2.75" (-0.72" for July)

I'll take one more day to look at the long range models and try to get a handle on what's coming for the first 2-3 weeks of the month. We already know this will be a hot week, and there's a good chance most of next week will be too. But I'm confident we will not see a punishing heat wave or drought developing this month. In fact, we may just get an early taste of fall toward the end of August. I know we could make a lot of people happy if we could just get rid of some of the humidity. It's been stubborn to say the least.

We finally have something to watch in the tropics. There is an area of disturbed weather heading for Jamaica and Cuba. It's possible that before we get through Tuesday, we may have a tropical storm. The forecast track is likely going to continue west/northwest.