Incredible flooding - when does it end

Good morning everyone and happy Friday. Incredible rainfall and flooding strikes again. Places that just had major rains about 3-4 weeks ago have been hit once again. Rainfall amounts over 9 inches are coming in from southern Sedgwick county and the pictures are amazing. 

 4 NW Clearwater: 9.31"

SW Butler County: 9"

Derby: 8.90"

Eisenhower (Wichita): 6.58"

Kingman: 5.50"

Wichita is pushing closer to 4th wettest year on record. We need another 10 inches of rain to rival the wettest year on record (which was 2008).

Storms Friday:

Here's an update - we expect scattered storms after 4 or 5 p.m. A few may produce some strong winds and smaller hail, but #1 on our list is more flooding. Our latest Future Track model has scattered storms from Salina to Wichita and southeast by 9 p.m. By the time we get to 11:30, the biggest rains will be over southeast Kansas. Those areas absolutely don't need more rain, but we could see another 1-3" with the next round. 

9:30 Friday night

11:30 Friday night

Part of the reason for the heavy, soaking rains is the leftover tropical moisture from Newton. The other piece is that we just a have a slow moving front that is stuck right over south central Kansas. I've lost count how many of these slow moving fronts we've had this summer, but it's been more than a half dozen.

Pattern Change:

Once our cold front moves through, we get rid of the humidity and the rain chances for awhile. A strong cold front will enter Kansas early next week (Monday), and look what happens to our temperatures. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s for most of the state for Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. Incredible fall like feel coming our way soon.

Tropical connection with Newton - hello fall

Tropical moisture will be headed toward Kansas in the coming days! The leftovers from what was Hurricane Newton will continue to move northeast and drench the southwestern US. Eventually, this moisture will help create more heavy rains across Kansas and surrounding areas. This is only the 6th time a tropical storm has directly impacted Arizona. 

Tale of two fronts:

We continue to watch a slow (nearly stationary) front that is setup across Kansas today and tomorrow. The chance for scattered storms will be focused over central and eastern Kansas today (Wednesday), and over southern Kansas into Thursday evening. 

The second front to watch is coming Friday, which will bring rain to the Kansas State Fair. Some of the rain could be heavy, with an inch or two possible for many areas. Forecast models are indicating that some 3 inch amounts may fall over south central or southeast Kansas. Watch for flooding.

Fall weather returns:

There are two particular time periods where there will be a fall-like feel to the weather. Saturday - highs will drop back into the 70s with lighter winds AND lower humidity.

Tuesday/Wednesday (next week) - get ready for some even cooler weather as parts of northwest Kansas may not escape the 60s. Normal highs are in the upper 80s, so that would put us below normal for a little while. 

 

Heavy rain threat continues - more wild swings

I'm back after a little extra time off over the holiday weekend. Hope you had a nice Labor Day. It's been a summer of flooding in many different areas of Kansas. Just look at this abbreviated list of places that have had flooding this summer:
Rose Hill, Mulvane, Ellsworth, McPherson, Wichita, Norton Co., Ellis Co., Decatur Co., Russell Co.

Estimated rainfall from radar (over the weekend) - click on image to enlarge

More heavy rain possible!
Once again, we are up against a slow moving front that will stall somewhere over Kansas, and heading into Thursday/Friday, there's bound to be more pockets of flooding rains. AND Hurricane Newton slammed into Baja California this morning. Some of that moisture will get pulled into the central Plains, which also raises the concern for some heavier rains.

GFS (American Model)

European Model

Fall Weather Watch:
Another big blast of cool, fall weather is coming south and will arrive into the weekend. The humidity will get pushed away and highs may only be in the 70s for Saturday.

Fair Week:
I expect we will see more big temperature swings during the full week of the fair. Computer models are indicating a rather warm start to the week (Monday/Tuesday), but we could be headed back for some fall weather by the middle of the week.

Last week, I put out a month long forecast indicating this would be a rather warm month. So far, that's holding up pretty good. We do have some cooler days in the near future, but they will likely be brief, with warm stretches dominating for most of the month (especially in the second half of September)