Snow is coming, but....

This will not be a big storm for the Plains. I've run into several people who are still hoping for a good snow storm, but this is not the one. And when I reference "a good snow storm", I'm talking about accumulation of 5" or more.

With the exception of the blizzard that hit NW Kansas a few weeks ago, almost all of the storms have been somewhat starved of moisture. And even when we do get some snow, temperatures are so cold that there isn't much liquid content in what does fall.

Tuesday AM:
We should begin to see some light snow or flurries around the state by sunrise. I don't think too many schools are going to shut down with this kind of event. Some snow packed spots are possible on highways and interstates. There just isn't much moisture content to what we are going to see Tuesday.

Tuesday PM/Eve:
This is when we will get the majority of the snow to fall. Just about everyone in Kansas has a chance to see some minor accumulation.

Accumulation:
So we think most of the snow will end up in central/northern Kansas. From Scott City, to Great Bend, over to Salina and north, I would expect some 2-4" amounts. As you get farther south, it's looking like T-1" for most. There shouldn't be a lot of wind with this snow, so it may actually land on some of the area wheat fields. But as I mentioned earlier, when melted down, there won't be that much moisture. We would need closer to 15 or 20 inches to equal 1" of liquid precipitation.

Watching the Tuesday storm

Good Saturday morning. Just a quick update on what features we are watching for Tuesday. This system has a chance of producing a wintry mix for Kansas, but the way it's approaching Kansas, it's not likely to be a big storm.

The system looks like it will produce a mix of rain and snow for the area, with a potential of the heaviest falling over eastern Kansas. I would like to see the storm drop farther into the Southwest before it moves into the Plains. If it doesn't, our chances of heavier moisture are slim. I'm not trying to be negative, but given our recent track record of wet weather, we need to careful about getting too excited with this system.

There's still so much we need to watch and study in the coming days. We are desperate for something to help reduce the fire concerns and give a boost to the winter wheat crop. I'm hoping when I update the blog on Monday, we will have even better news.

Have a terrific weekend.

Snow stats & February outlook

Our first month of 2018 is in the books and yet again, where's the moisture? With the exception of the northwest Kansas blizzard on the 22nd, there's just hasn't been that much to speak of around here in the last 30 days. The drought is expanding and will likely continue to do so through February.

First, look at some of the snow stats:

If winter ended today, Wichita would have the lowest snowfall in recorded history. It would beat out the winter of 1922/23 when the city only had .7"

And Dodge City isn't much better. Southwest Kansas hasn't been in the right spot either.
There is only one other year with lower snowfall, and that was the winter of 1903/04 with a whopping .2"

Sunday Snow Chance:
This isn't an organized storm, so we can't expect to get much out of this particular round of snow. And with temperatures being colder, moisture content will be very low. You would likely need 15 inches of snow to get 1 inch of rain, and we won't be anywhere close to 15" (won't even get half that amount) Best chances for any snow at all will be in northern Kansas.

February Outlook:
Temps: Expect several cold snaps coming up.
Precip: Bottom line is that I don't expect this very dry pattern to give up in the next 25-30 days (and likely even longer). The same kind of pattern that we've had for about 95% of the winter is likely to continue. Upper level winds will continue from the northwest, which essentially means more long, dry spells.

There will be the occasional light dusting of snow, but if you're looking for something substantial, chances are extremely low.

What about March? It's very early to say too much, but I think we have better chances for moisture in March. I'll keep you update.