One storm headed our way & chance for another freeze

Shelf cloud approaching Fort Worth, TX - courtesy Wade Robberson

We've made it to Wednesday and we are half way through our first stormy week in a LONG time. The rainfall amounts from Tuesday were a little disappointing, but we will be glad with what we got (if you had any rain at all)

The same storm system that has created the severe weather and flooding down in Texas is going to push to the north Thursday night/Friday. It will be weakening as it moves along, but it may still produce some rain Saturday morning over central and eastern Kansas. Weakening storms that wobble around are sometimes very hard to forecast because a slight change in intensity or track can have big impacts on the outcome. 

Saturday Rain Chance:

It will mainly be focused over central and eastern Kansas. Right now, the highest chances will be Saturday morning, but the rain will be light, with amounts well under .25"

Next Week Storm:

The forecast is calling for another big storm system to start gathering strength across the western US early in the week. While there could still be some changes to where this storm tracks, it's looking more and more likely that this system will pass to the north of Kansas, leaving us high and dry. It will likely push a front through Tuesday and cool us off during the middle of the week. There is a chance we could see sub-freezing low temperatures during the second half of the week. So hold off putting out tender plants and turning sprinkler systems on because we still have some chilly weather ahead.

Storm Setup for Today (Monday)

Good Monday morning and welcome to the first full week of March. We've had a long drought of stormy weather in the Plains. Most of the systems have either gone north or south of us, leaving us high and dry for over a month in places.

The latest weather pattern change is allowing a storm system to slide into northern Mexico. There is a nice stream of Gulf moisture flowing north into the central US, but we would need more in order for this to be a significant severe weather setup. One of the factors contributing to the potential for severe storms is the amount of wind coming in from the south/southwest. This strong wind helps storms produce hail once they develop, but there are other factors working against the chance for rain. So this setup just doesn't favor widespread severe weather.

There will be a chance for some rain Tuesday over south central and eastern Kansas, but amounts will likely be under .25" and the storms will not be severe.

We are watching a HUGE low pressure system in the upper atmosphere over northern Mexico and south Texas. It will take days for it to finally move on, and when it does, it will lift to the northeast. This could help produce some rain Friday evening for southeast Kansas. Our weather pattern is VERY different this week, but we are still on the short end of the rainfall setup. Hope this will change soon to ease the fire danger setups.

Rainfall forecast and a severe weather potential

We continue to advertise a big change in the weather pattern for next week, and the chance for much needed moisture to return to Kansas. That change is still in the works and it's going to be a huge storm system, but will we get very much rainfall out of it? 

Rainfall from Sunday - Wednesday

Right now, I think some of our best chances will come Monday afternoon/evening, and then again Tuesday. If we look at one forecast model for rainfall from Sunday - Wednesday, it does show some areas of Kansas getting an inch of rain, primarily over south central and southeast Kansas. The heaviest rainfall will be somewhat scattered, so not everyone will see the higher totals. The biggest problem here is that the main storm system will be tracking so far south that the heavy, widespread soaking rains will end up in eastern Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas. I know we will be grateful for whatever moisture we do get, but despite the size of this incoming storm, it's a little disappointing to see how much of Kansas will be missed by heavier precipitation.

Severe Weather Chance: We do expect some strong storms Monday evening. Although they will be scattered and many of them below severe limits, here is a map showing where the highest severe potential will be Monday afternoon/evening.

Chance of Snow: None!!! Can you believe we have a HUGE storm system developing in early March and not even a chance for snowflakes anywhere in our area. The main rain/snow line is WAY up north along the Canadian/US border. Very impressive, but it goes along with this incredibly warm pattern that we've been on now for 3-4 weeks.