Little snow - more cold coming leading up to Christmas

There are so many mixed opinions about cold weather and snow. Seems like people either love it or hate it, but meteorological winter is here and we are likely in for a lot more cold weather through the rest of this month.

It's been awhile since we've had a true winter storm in Kansas. In fact, take a look at this map. For most of Kansas, it's been about a year since we've had a "winter storm warning" issued for several locations in our area. Winter storm warnings are usually issued when we expect 6 or more inches of snow. I don't see anything like that coming for awhile, even though the cold is going to be relentless.

We have several sets of model data that help us make the predictions that we do. Some models are good for 12 hour predictions and others are used strictly in longer range outlooks.

Looking out through the next few weeks, I still see a ton of cold, Arctic air hanging around the central and northern US. Even though we may see some days where temperatures climb into the 40s and perhaps low 50s, those days won't last long. Just take a look at one set of data that shows a temperature average from December 14-19th and another set from December 16-21st. Much of the central and northern US will continue to see well below normal temperatures.

Dec. 14-19th

Dec. 16-21st

We still don't know if there will be a white Christmas or not. It's just too early to tell. But I will say this, I think we will have more than enough cold weather around to make some snow, but it takes just the right storm to make it happen. The right amount of moisture and track are also key, so we can't say just yet if snow will fall or be on the ground for Christmas morning.

Lots of cold - only a little snow coming

Our first full week of December will be a cold one and for those that want to see some snow, we should get that too. At the end of last week, I started posting some data showing that it didn't look like Kansas was going to see very much snow. After watching the model data through the weekend, we still believe that will be the case.

So here's what's coming for the week ahead:
Monday - Mild
Highs will still get into the 50s with sunshine. The cold front will come through later tonight, so temperatures will be going down into Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday - Colder
Bitter cold is already organizing over western Canada and is ready to move south. We should still have some sunshine, but much chillier air will be arriving. Highs will be in the 30s/40s.

GFS Model

European Model

Tuesday Night-Wednesday- COLD
We still expect to see some snow during this time, but it's not going to amount to very much. In most cases, it will be an inch or less, but a few areas in northwest Kansas (where the snow starts first), could see up to 2 inches before the system pulls away. This is a fast moving system with limited moisture. Bottom line is that when it get this cold, it takes quite a bit of moisture to get heavier snows, and this system does NOT have it. Both computer models shown here indicate very light amounts, so there won't be much to shovel (if at all) when the system finally departs Wednesday evening.

We will be climbing out of the deep freeze late in the week as we get back to the 30s and 40s by Friday and the weekend. I'll have updates on this as the week continues.

Two storms - cold, wind, and snow coming

Welcome to Friday. Thanks for stopping by and reading the blog to see what's going on with Kansas weather. Two storms to watch between now and the middle of next week.

Storm #1: Still tracking far enough south that it's not going to be a significant rain or snow maker in the Plains. There will be some nice rains across Oklahoma and Texas. Models still show widespread 1-3", and even higher amounts farther east in Texas. Just imagine if this storm would've ended up farther north, we would've had a nice soaking here in Kansas. So it goes.

Any snow that falls overnight and early Saturday won't be around for long. Most of it will melt once it hits the ground, so I don't expect there to be any big impacts on weekend travel around the area.

Storm #2: Arctic Air is Coming!!
We aren't likely to see any rain on Monday, so our next focus turns to the strong cold front that will push through on Tuesday. The bitterly cold air (for most of us) won't be here until Wednesday. Highs on Tuesday will range from 20s in the northwest to near 40 farther south and east. Highs on Wednesday will be in the teens and 20s and Thursday looks mighty cold too.

How much snow are we going to get next week? The storm hasn't formed yet, so remember, we are predicting something that isn't even reality yet. But confidence is growing that this will be a fast moving system, so you won't likely have too much to shovel or scrape away. Here is the forecast from one computer model for select cities around the state:

 Hope you have a nice and safe weekend. Winter is back in Kansas next week. Here we go!