Meteor showers & a busy few weeks coming up

It's been about two months since our last discussion of meteor showers. The next one will peak at the end of this week (Friday night), known as the Draconids. The moon will not get in the way of viewing since it sets very early in the evening and that leaves you with the rest of the night for viewing.

A more popular meteor shower peaking Thursday night, October 21st is the Orionids. What is traditionally one of the best shows of the year might not be as good this year since a full moon will probably make viewing of the faint meteors more difficult. 

More space station viewing coming up this week: If you are interested, skies will be mainly clear and viewing should be ideal. The difference between the space station and airplanes is that the space station will NOT be blinking. 

Things are going to be getting very active over the next couple of weeks. Storms coming into the west are going to be getting more intense, with rain falling in places where wildfires have been a problem. Snow will be coming down in the higher elevations, temperature changes will be more dramatic, and occasionally, we will have chances for some rain and thunderstorms.

First system arrives Sunday/Monday:

New models coming in this morning are still showing a cold front arriving Sunday, but they are backing off the rain potential in Kansas. The first system to arrive in over a week may not be very organized and could pass through here quickly, leaving us with very little time to squeeze out some moisture. We will start talking rainfall amounts Thursday, but for now, just know Sunday does have a chance for rain. 

Look what is happening in the western US into next week:

A series of systems coming across the western half of the country could help knock down fires and give firefighters a break. The one developing for next week (shown above) is going to produce some heavier snows in the mountains and potentially arrive in the Plains by the middle of the week.

Have a great day and thanks for spending a few minutes here.

October outlook for the Plains

Heading into the heart of fall (October) and it's probably my favorite month of the year. The seasonal transition from summer to winter is in full display. Parts of the state can get some of the first snows of the year and temperature changes become more extreme.

We showed this information a few nights ago on the air, but the last three years have had snow in October. The growing season ended rapidly with a big cold snap that happened just days before Halloween. 

First, October averages look like this:

Average first fall frost tends to happen in October:

October rainfall: We are getting some nice rain heading into the start of the new month and I think there's a decent chance the month (as a whole) could be slightly wetter than normal. Doesn't take much because our average rain is only a couple of inches in much of the state anyway. Here's the latest 30 day outlook for precipitation.

I think October 2021 will tend to be a little warmer than normal, so we may not get that early snow that the last three years have had. 

Rainy setup - unsettled for days

As we wrap up an unbelievably warm month of September across the state, our focus is shifting to a more eventful and cooler stretch coming up. Much of the state will likely end up with a top 10 warmest Septembers on record. 

Wichita:

Dodge City:

Rain is coming: Cold front arrives Wednesday night should lead to the most widespread rain since the beginning of the month. Rain gets going first in western Kansas before heading east Thursday morning. This stuff will be incredibly slow to move along. I think western Kansas should be expecting .25"-.50" Wednesday night (some isolated areas may get a bit more).

Thursday - Saturday: The focus for rain will be central and eastern Kansas Thursday afternoon and Friday. 

I don't think the rain on Friday will amount to very much, if we get much at all. However, look at the rain back in Oklahoma and Texas (near Amarillo). As soon as the main "low" from New Mexico kicks out going into Saturday, we should have another nice round of rain coming across the region.

Forecast rain amounts from Wednesday - Saturday:

Average rainfall in October isn't usually more than a few inches at best, but we may be looking at more rain in the first and second weeks of the upcoming month. The jet stream looks to stay fairly active for awhile. The map below reflects that with above normal rain (for the 7 day period) across the Plains.

Have a great day and get ready for some rain.